Carolina is Rounding Into Form
They didn’t play over the weekend but it’s clear that the Heel are starting to trend towards where they were expected to be before the season began. UNC won a hard-fought game at Syracuse on Tuesday night, its fourth-straight win after the setback in Charlottesville. Heading into this week, Carolina is fourth in the standings at 7-3 and has games remaining against every team above them in the standings.
We mentioned UNC’s tough schedule a few weeks ago and the Tar Heels are about to be right in the thick of it in the weeks to come. A home game against Pitt is followed by a road trip to Duke this weekend, with games against Wake, Clemson, Miami and NC State lingering beyond that. They will be challenged but if they can play the way they have in recent weeks, they will win most of those games and be in a position to sneak into the title race after a slower start.
Wake is Fading Fast
While the Tar Heels are trending up, the Demon Deacons are trending down. Wake has now lost three in a row after a 6-2 start to ACC play, dropping consecutive games to Virginia, Pitt, and NC State, all competitive at least in stretches. The losses to Pitt and State in particular have to sting, given the fact that the former came down to the final shot and the latter was at home.
We mentioned last week that some of the teams that were around 6-2 in league play would have to fade while others stayed afloat, and it seems like the Demon Deacons are trending back towards .500.
They’ll have to win at Duke this week if they are going to avoid a fourth-straight loss, though a road trip to Notre Dame this weekend could provide some reprieve.
Two Surprise Contenders Sticking Around
As we hit the halfway point of ACC play, it seems like a safe bet that Clemson and Pitt are going to finish with solid league records, at a minimum.
The Tigers held off a rally and hit a late shot to beat Florida State on the road, going 2-0 for the week and moving to 10-1 in ACC play. A trip to Boston College this week should result in a win to get the Tigers to 11 wins before their schedule gets a bit tougher.
Pitt, meanwhile, earned itself some respect with a big home win over Miami. The Panthers are now the third team to get to eight wins in league play, joining UVa (9-2) and Clemson (10-1). They have a tough game at UNC this week but then have a long stretch of winnable games as they play Louisville, FSU, BC, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Notre Dame before ending the season with a rematch against Miami.
Will Pitt take advantage of a manageable back-half schedule and challenge for the league title? It seemed inconceivable back in October yet here we are.
Quick Questions
How dangerous are the Hokies?
Tech went 2-0 last week, picking up big home wins over Duke and Syracuse. Those victories helped pull the Hokies out of the league’s basement as they now sit at 3-7 in conference play. Virginia Tech isn’t going to challenge for the regular-season title or anything like that; in fact, the Hokies could be eliminated from that by the end of this week if things don’t go their way. But they did this last year, starting 2-7 in ACC play before finishing 11-9 and working their way into the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation ahead of an ACC Tournament win.
The Hokies can still make a run at a bid with two Quad 1 games this week and several more remaining, and it will be interesting to see if Tech plays spoiler down the stretch, or if they could even do more than that.
How many wins will be needed for a double-bye in Greensboro?
If the season ended today Clemson, Virginia, Pitt and UNC would be the top-four finishers. Granted, half the season remains so there is a lot that could change in some way, but the league’s win totals appear to be top heavy with a few programs that are really struggling to beat anyone. Louisville, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame are a combined 3-29 in league play, which means there are a lot of wins by teams in the top half of the conference.
Typically a team can get a top-four spot with 13 or 14 wins and even 12 could be enough in some years. But with three teams already at eight wins, and six teams with seven victories, there could be some teams with solid records, 13-7 let’s say, that finish fifth or sixth in the conference.
Games of the Week
Tuesday: Wake Forest at Duke (7 p.m., ESPN)
The Deacs are reeling and haven’t won at Cameron Indoor in 23 attempts, dating back to the beginning of the millennium. Everyone is going to be picking the Blue Devils but Wake Forest could really use a win to stop the bleeding.
Wednesday: Pitt at UNC (7 p.m., ACCN)
Here’s another opportunity for the Panthers to prove themselves as a legit contender. Even if they don’t win in Chapel Hill to sweep the season series, a competitive loss would be further evidence that Pitt is going to have staying power in the ACC race.
Saturday: UVa at Virginia Tech (Noon, ESPN2)
As mentioned above, the Hokies appear to be trending in the right direction but this week will tell us how good they can be. After a road game at Miami in the midweek, Tech tries to get revenge against the rival Wahoos who won in Charlottesville a couple weeks back. Cassell Coliseum has long been a tricky road spot for ACC teams, UVa included.
Saturday: Miami at Clemson (3 p.m., ACCN)
Here’s another big test for two teams near the top of the standings, and the Tigers should be favored here at home. Miami has yo-yo’d wins and losses of late and could really use a 2-0 week. For Clemson, this is just another hurdle between them and a regular season title.
Saturday: UNC at Duke (6:30 p.m., ESPN)
Saturday night we get the first installment of the best rivalry in the sport and the first without Coach K in decades. Both of these teams are capable of beating anyone in the league but Carolina has been playing a bit better of late. A win in this game would be more a statement for Duke than it would be for the Tar Heels.