There are two weeks left in the regular season and a pair of ACC teams are in very precarious situations with four games to go. North Carolina dropped a pivotal road contest at NC State on Sunday, falling to 16-11 overall and 8-8 in ACC play. This month the Tar Heels are 1-5 and seem further and further away from their No. 1 ranking in the preseason. With four games left, it’s fair to start wondering IF they are going to turn things around rather than wondering when.

Clemson, meanwhile, is fading fast and its disastrous loss at Louisville on Saturday night could very well spell doom. After a 10-1 start to ACC play that got them ranked in the AP Poll, the Tigers are 1-4 and are the only team to lose to Carolina this month. Their lone win in this spell was a 40-point victory over FSU, but they threw away their metrics bump with a loss at the Yum! Center.

As of now, both of these teams are outside the projected NCAA Tournament field and have to really get things in order down the stretch to make it. UNC is .500 in league play and has double-digit losses. Clemson somehow has three Quad-4 losses, which will be very difficult to overcome when the selection committee meets.

Both teams will have opportunities to salvage things, though.

UNC travels to Notre Dame then hosts league leader UVa, travels to FSU, and then hosts Duke in the finale. Clemson has a home date with Syracuse and then probably need to sweep its tough road trips to NC State and UVa before finishing the season with a win over Notre Dame.

To be clear, we’re not comparing UVa’s situation to the two teams above: Virginia is solidly in the NCAA Tournament field and despite some uneven play the Wahoos have won four in a row and 11 of their last 12. But it’s difficult to watch them right now and not see some danger lurking.

Last week UVa had to rally from nine down to beat suddenly-dangerous Louisville, hanging on for a three-point road win. Then after what should have been a wake-up call, Virginia survived a game-winning shot attempt from Notre Dame to hang on for another narrow win in a game where the Cavaliers were double-digit favorites.

Obviously every team has nights like UVa had in the last two, but the Cavaliers haven’t exactly been laying waste to the rest of their schedule. They have won a lot of games but there have been some issues with big blown leads, or free-throw shooting late, and so on, that could become a problem later.

Virginia got some help over the weekend and now leads the league. But at this point, the Hoos don’t look nearly as strong as some of the elite Tony Bennett teams that comfortably beat most teams and usually demolished teams like Notre Dame and Louisville.

In 2019, UVa won 17 of its 20 ACC games between the regular season and ACC Tournament. The average margin of victory was 16.5 points per game in those 17 victories; nine of those wins came by 20+ points. And the ACC was better then, too. Two of UVa’s losses came to Duke, ranked No. 4 nationally in KenPom. The other came to No. 14 Florida State on a neutral floor. The average KenPom rank of UVa’s ACC opponents was 62nd, with opponents ranging from No. 4 (Duke) to No. 174 (11-20 Wake Forest).

This season, UVa has won 13 of its 16 ACC games. The losses came to No. 31 Miami, No. 58 Pitt and No. 70 Virginia Tech. UVa’s average margin of victory in its 13 ACC wins is 8.8 points, and none have come by 20+ points. The average rank of UVa’s opponents in KenPom is 117th, ranging from 31 (Miami) to 278 (Louisville).

It’s probably not fair to compare to the 2019 team, but most of the good Bennett teams are closer to that profile and performance than this team, and they did that against a better ACC.

UVa doesn’t need to dramatically change its game to handle games more easily, though. There have been moments in all of these games where the Hoos were a possession or a bucket away from burying an opponent and they’ve simply struggled to put games away.

But they’ve also been a possession or a bucket away from dropping some of these games, and potentially each of their last three. To their credit, they’ve closed out wins in a lot of close games, which could pay dividends later.

All of this is just food for thought, and as long as UVa keeps winning, the Cavaliers be fine. But it feels worth stating that they may be more vulnerable against ACC competition and in the NCAA Tournament than their record suggests.

UVa is in front for now but Pitt and Miami are still very much in the race for first in the ACC.

The Panthers dropped a road game in Blacksburg on Saturday night, falling to 12-4 in conference play with four games left. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have just three games left and took care of business against Wake Forest on Saturday.

Both teams will need to be sharp over the next week and a half, but it’s very possible that Pitt’s finale at Miami is for the ACC title or a share of it.

Virginia would need to slip up, of course. UVa has a pair of road games this week and if they get through them unscathed, then it becomes less likely that the Wahoos finish anywhere but first. But both Pitt and Miami beat them, so both teams will have a shot to take the top seed in Greensboro if the Cavaliers drop a game. And even if UVa wins out, the Pitt/Miami game should mean something for seeding.

Which team will get hit with the upset bug this week?

We take a look at the schedule every week and try to figure out the biggest games. And there are plenty of them that get excluded from that list, because on paper it seems pretty obvious which way the game should go. And every week, at least one of those games goes the other way. Last week, Louisville stunned Clemson, Syracuse beat NC State, and so on.

This week, some teams are trying to finish strong, or get in the tournament, or so on, and others are playing spoiler.

UVa found that out first hand last week when the Hoos got pushed by two teams with very little to play for. This week, Pitt has home games against Georgia Tech and Syracuse. Surely they’ll handle those games, right? Duke has Louisville and Virginia Tech at home too, but will they handle their business, or get tripped up?

Everyone in the ACC should probably be on upset alert in every game, as it seems that they’re all capable of coming down to the wire.

Who could be this year’s Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament?

A year ago Mike Young’s squad went to Brooklyn as the No. 7 seed in the conference tournament, and probably on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. But over their four days at the ACC Tournament, the Hokies made their at-large position moot by simply winning all of their games. Tech beat No. 10-seed Clemson at the buzzer in the second round, then upset No. 2 Notre Dame in the quarterfinals. Then the Hokies went through eventual Final Four teams UNC and Duke on their way to the tournament title, hammering the Blue Devils 82-67 in the final.

So is there a team that could make a similar run this year, and in particular, a team that won’t have a double-bye that could make it to Saturday?

The top candidates, as of now, would be Duke and UNC, with neither being totally surprising to the outside world given the talent on the roster and expectations.

Wake and Syracuse would fit the bill too, but given what we’ve seen from both teams, it’s hard to imagine either of them winning four games.

UNC is the team that could play its way into the field, as the Heels are on the outside looking in right now so we’ll go with them as the most-likely to repeat what VT did last year, though it’ll be tough.

And a bonus note, Boston College seems like a team that’s better than its overall record right now, and could be a dangerous team in Greensboro. Though it would be extremely surprising to see them win five games on consecutive days to win the whole thing.

Tuesday: Miami at Virginia Tech (7 p.m., ESPNU)

The Hokies picked off then league-leaders Pitt on Saturday and now we’ll see if they can do the same to Miami. The Hurricanes come in red hot, winners of six straight, but Tech has been solid at home and this is a challenging spot for the Canes that has the potential to shake up the title race.

Wednesday: UVa at Boston College (7 p.m., RSN)

It might not jump out as a major ACC game but this is going to be a tricky spot for UVa. BC is playing relatively well and gave the Hoos a game for the first half in Charlottesville. And given how UVa has played, this could be an upset spot for the Cavaliers,who are looking to hang on to their narrow lead atop the conference standings.

Wednesday: Wake Forest at NC State (9 p.m., RSN)

Another challenging game for the Wolfpack, but again, it’s at home. State is coming off a big rivalry win over UNC on Sunday and is now solidly in the NCAA Tournament field. The Pack are probably too far back to get into the league title race but State is in the mix for a top-four finish and double bye in Greensboro.

Saturday: Clemson at NC State (Noon, RSN)

Speaking of the Wolfpack, here’s another big home game for them. This game is much bigger for their opponent, however. Clemson has seen its ACC title hopes and NCAA Tournament chances fade of late, and desperately needs big wins to swing things back in a positive direction. With a trip to Charlottesville coming up next week, this is the first of two big opportunities for the Tigers to save their season.

Saturday: UVa at UNC (6 p.m., ESPN)

Saturday’s game in Chapel Hill is probably UVa’s biggest remaining hurdle on the path to a regular-season title. Virginia has to get by BC of course, but if they can that, a victory at the Dean Dome sets the Hoos up with a pair of home games between them and finishing first. And for Carolina, the stakes couldn’t be higher as the Tar Heels desperately need big wins, and really, any wins they can get at this point.