Pitt is in the Driver’s Seat…With a Caveat
The Panthers took care of business on Saturday, beating Syracuse in their home finale. And luckily for the home team, their two primary challengers in the regular-season title race both lost. Miami dropped a heartbreaker at the buzzer, allowing Florida State to complete the biggest comeback in ACC basketball history, rallying from 25 down to win. UVa also lost in Chapel Hill, and now both the Canes and Hoos have five league losses and Pitt is in first at 14-4.
The Panthers finish the regular season at Notre Dame and Miami. If they win both, they’ll be outright ACC champions. If they take care of the Irish but lose at Miami, it’ll be a split title, at least two ways. The Canes don’t play another game before Pitt, so a win over the Panthers guarantees them at least a share of the title and the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament.
Virginia and Clemson can also earn a share of the title if either of them win out and Pitt loses one of the final two games.
The race has been tight all season, and now it will likely come down to the final day of the season to determine who wins at least a share of the title, and how the seeding will shake out in Greensboro.
Big Final Week for Teams on the Bubble
There’s plenty of drama at the top of the standings, though Pitt, Miami and UVa are all NCAA Tournament locks at this point. But for a few teams further down the standings, the final week of the regular season could be make-or-break.
Clemson has won three of four and two straight after its terrible loss at Louisville just over a week ago. The Tigers are trending in the right direction after an impressive Quad 1 win at NC State. Now, they’ll have a chance at another signature win, playing at UVa on Tuesday. A 2-0 week should put them squarely on the bubble heading to the ACC Tournament and even a split, as long as the loss is at UVa, might be enough to give them a solid chance.
The other team right on the bubble in the ACC is North Carolina, which is also working on its resume. The win over UVa on Saturday night was huge for the Heels, who desperately needed a hot finish to the season. Now, they’ll travel to face a dangerous FSU team on Monday before hosting Duke in the finale. If they can win both, UNC might be in the field unless they take a terrible loss in the ACC Tournament. Lose one and they’ll probably have work to do in the conference tournament. Lose both, and Carolina might need to win the auto-bid to get to the dance.
UVa Played with Fire and Got Burned
Last week, we wrote in this piece that UVa was skating by against inferior opponents, and if they continued to play the way they did against Louisville and Notre Dame, the Wahoos would lose both of their next two games.
And sure enough, they did just that.
The Cavaliers were listless in Chestnut Hill, getting blown out by Boston College. Losing at UNC as an underdog isn’t nearly as bad, but they didn’t play their best in the Dean Dome either.\
Now, Tony Bennett and Co. have very little time to right the ship, and the Hoos look very vulnerable right now to early exits in both of their postseason tournaments. They’ve also done damage to a resume that looked pretty solid a few weeks ago, taking more and more losses and watching their metrics tumble as they continue to play rather inefficient basketball on both ends.
The question now is whether UVa simply needs to shake out of a slump and play better, or if it’s time to shake up the rotation and minutes in search of an answer. The Wahoos have a pair of home games this week which gives them an opportunity to get back on track to some degree before the postseason. And how they look in those games may tell us how “for real” this UVa team that has been ranked higher than their performance warranted for most of the season.
ACC Tournament Scenarios
For the No. 1 seed: Three teams can still get the top seed in Greensboro: Pitt, Miami and suddenly surging Clemson.
Right now, the Pitt/Miami game on Saturday in Coral Gables looks to be the primary decider. Miami (14-5) doesn’t have a midweek game, and Pitt plays at Notre Dame on Wednesday. Assuming Pitt takes care of business in South Bend, the Pitt/Miami game will determine the top seed, and Pitt will have a shot at an outright title.
If Miami beats Pitt then the Canes will be the No. 1 seed in Greensboro regardless.
There is a small path for Clemson to pull it off. The Tigers would need to win out (at UVa, Notre Dame), and then have Pitt lose to Notre Dame but beat Miami. This would create a two-way tie with Pitt and Clemson at 15-5, and the Tigers won head-to-head.
For UVa: As mentioned above, Saturday’s loss at UNC ended UVa’s hopes of the top seed in the ACC Tournament. Virginia can still share the title with Miami or Pitt or both, and Pitt loses at least one more game. If UVa wins the remaining games, the Cavaliers will either be the No. 2 seed or No. 3 seed in Greensboro, opening play on Thursday night.
Assuming they handle their business, they would have to wait around Saturday evening to see the Pitt/Miami result to know if they would be the 2nd or 3rd seed. In this scenario, if there is a three-way tie at 15-5 (meaning Miami beat Pitt and the Panthers took care of Notre Dame), UVa would be the No. 3 seed by virtue of lost tiebreakers to both teams. Pitt would be the No. 2 seed if this happens.
If Pitt wins out, or beats Miami, and UVa ends up 15-5, the Hoos would be the No. 2 seed with the Canes a game back at 14-6.
In the unlikely scenario that Pitt loses out, the same applies, though Miami would be the No. 1 seed and UVa and Pitt would share the bottom half of the bracket.
Now what happens if UVa doesn’t take care of business this week at home? If the Wahoos lose to Clemson, they can finish no better than the No. 4 seed. Clemson would pass them in the standings and all three teams above them would have head-to-head tiebreakers. It’s unlikely UVa can fall below the No. 4 seed; it would require an 0-2 record this week and Duke would have to win out to get the final double-bye. But given how UVa has played of late, a loss to Clemson is certainly on the table and if that happens, the Cavaliers would likely be the 4th seed, playing mid-afternoon Thursday. If the worst happens, UVa cannot fall below the No. 5 seed.
For the Double Byes: It’s not set in stone by any means, but right now the top four ACC seeds look pretty solidified.
Miami has already clinched a double-bye. Pitt guarantees it cannot finish below No. 3 with one more win in the final week. If Clemson beats UVa or NC State beats Duke on Tuesday, that would give Pitt a double-bye as well. If the Panthers lose out there is a slight chance they could fall to the No. 5 seed, but it would require a lot to go against them.
UVa needs to win one more game to get the double-bye and will be favored in a pair of home games this week. The Hoos could fall out of the top four if they lose out and other things go against them, but it’s a real doomsday scenario.
Clemson, by virtue of their impressive blowout of NC State on Saturday, is in a good spot to get a double-bye.
The Tigers either need to beat UVa or Notre Dame, and they’re locked into a top-four spot. If they beat UVa, they can’t finish lower than third. If they end up 13-7, there is a chance they could drop to the No. 5 seed.
There is only one team that can spoil the party at this point: 12-6 Duke. The Blue Devils have a tough week coming up, with a home game against NC State and a road trip to Chapel Hill to take on a UNC team that desperately needs a win there. They need to win out and get help to get a double-bye. At least one of Clemson, UVa and Pitt would have to win out, and all three have at least one game where they’ll be big favorites. If Duke drops one of its remaining two, the top four seeds will be Pitt, Miami, UVa and Clemson in some order, regardless of what happens elsewhere.
Other Seeding Scenarios: At the bottom of the bracket Florida State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame and Louisville are locked into first-round games on Tuesday in Greensboro. The seed order is still being worked out of course, but Notre Dame and Louisville are all but locked into the bottom two spots, Georgia Tech is nearly locked into the No. 13 seed, and Virginia Tech and Florida State will likely be No. 11 and No. 12 in some order, potentially depending on their regular-season finale against one another.
Boston College has a chance to get out of the bottom six, but will have to win out and get some help. The Eagles are very likely going to be the No. 10 seed and play the bottom seed, probably Louisville at this point.
Syracuse and Wake aren’t quite out of danger to fall into the bottom six, but both teams are likely to avoid that fate. Wake and Cuse play each other in the regular season finale which could have some implications, but it might just determine which team wears the home jersey and which wears the road jersey in the 8 vs 9 games in Greensboro. If the Deacs win out (BC, at Cuse) they’ll have a decent shot to jump to the No. 7 seed, as someone above them has to lose a game or two, with those teams all playing each other.
The teams likely to miss the double-bye but be the higher-seeded team on Wednesday are Duke, UNC and NC State. Duke could finish as high as No. 2 if it gets a bunch of breaks, but the Blue Devils have a tough week coming up and are likely to be either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed depending on how many games they win.
NC State has just one game left, at Duke on Tuesday. If they win, the Wolfpack are the No. 5 seed, and Duke would finish no better than 6th. If the Pack lose, they’re probably the No. 6 seed, and couldn’t do any better than that.
UNC can finish anywhere between No. 6 and NO. 9. They’d have to win out to get to the 6th seed, and their most-likely destination is the 7th seed at this point. If the Heels lose out, they’ll likely end up in the 8 vs 9 game, but that would be the least of their worries at that point.
Games of the Week
Tuesday: Clemson at Virginia (7 p.m., ACCN)
It’s a big game for UVa for a number of reasons. Primarily though, the Wahoos are running out of time to get back on track before the postseason starts. And now, Clemson has won three of its last four, and a win in Charlottesville would be a major boost to their NCAA Tournament hopes.
Tuesday: NC State at Duke (7 p.m., ESPN)
The stakes might not be as great in this game as others on the slate, but this should be an interesting matchup of two of the best teams in the league. State is wrapping up the regular season and looking to bounce back after a terrible performance against Clemson on Saturday. Duke looks to finish strong with a tough final week of the season.
Saturday: Pitt at Miami (6 p.m., ACCN)
This is the most important game remaining in the ACC regular season schedule, and the title and No. 1 seed in Greensboro will likely come down to this game in Coral Gables.
Saturday: Duke at North Carolina (6:30 p.m., ESPN)
The ACC schedule culminates (though technically Notre Dame at Clemson tips later) with the biggest rivalry in the sport. Duke is looking to continue its hot run of form with a season sweep of the Tar Heels, while Carolina looks for another signature win to help them get into the NCAA’s.