As the Cavaliers embark on their “second season” starting Thursday night in Greensboro, they enter the ACC Tournament as one of the favorites to win it but they still have plenty of work to do.
And in some ways, they’ve never been in quite this spot as both a dangerous one and also a vulnerable one, too.
The last month of the season has been an up-and-down period for UVa, including a 6-3 mark that ended with back-to-back victories to end the season.
UVa has gone into the postseason with a variety of outcomes on the radar before but it’s probably never been harder to tell how far the team can go. The Hoos showed that they can play with anyone, but also had to fight for their lives against the likes of Louisville and Notre Dame, and even earlier in the season against FSU and JMU at home.
It’s evident from watching UVa over the course of the 29-game regular season that things could go in a lot of different directions.
Let’s start with the positive: This UVa team could certainly make a run, be that in the ACC Tournament, the NCAA Tournament, or both.
For starters, we’ve seen this team’s ceiling. And with the Cavaliers heading into the postseason with the same roster they had in November, it’s not impossible that they can go on a run and find that form again even if it’s just for a couple of games, which might be enough to advance far in either tournament.
Former opponents Baylor and Houston will enter the NCAA Tournament among the favorites, with Baylor projected as a No. 2 seed, Illinois safely in the field, and Houston going into the postseason No. 1 in the Associated Press Top 25 as well as the projected overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
UVa also rolled through an admittedly down ACC, and won games in a bunch of different ways. One strength that could pay off for the Hoos in March is their performance when games are tight: They pulled out a close game against the Illini, and won tight games against Michigan, FSU and JMU in December. They had ACC games against UNC, Syracuse, Duke and others that required plays down the stretch. Even in losses, UVa game themselves a chance late. Against Pitt, a disappointing illegal screen on Kadin Shedrick might have been the difference, but UVa was right there. And the Wahoos shrugged off a 15-point deficit against Miami to get back in the game, eventually losing by two.
Experience in close games should pay dividends for UVa in the postseason, where contests often come down to the wire.
Speaking of experience, UVa has an old team. Kihei Clark is in his fifth year, and is one of the most-experienced players in NCAA history. The Cavaliers also honored starters Armaan Franklin, Jayden Gardner, and Ben Vander Plas on Senior Day over the weekend while also boasting plenty of veterans on the bench, too. And added to that veteran group, the Hoos are getting more from their youth heading into March. Ryan Dunn has continued to make an impact, and down the stretch, it feels like Tony Bennett is getting more comfortable playing him in crunch time. He scored 19 points over two games in the final week of the season. Fellow first-year Isaac McKneely has been a key part of UVa’s rotation coming off the bench, and has provided a lift, particularly in the form of outside shooting.
UVa has a deeper bench than most teams the Cavaliers will face in addition to featuring some lineup flexibility. The starting five is a smaller group, but Dunn has shown that he can come in and guard bigger players and wings. The Hoos have more depth in the backcourt this season, which allows Clark and Reece Beekman to get more rest, meaning Bennett can throw different lineups at opponents. UVa hasn’t gone to its bigs as much, but Francisco Caffaro played a decent amount in the last two games, and there’s a decent chance that Shedrick finds himself on the court in a competitive game at some point in the next few weeks.
Most teams are good at one or two things, or have more of a set lineup, but like UVa’s national title team, this group has different pieces that can play together and give opponents more to defend, and gives the Cavaliers more options to take away what those other teams do well.
Finally, UVa isn’t elite according to the metrics, but does a few things well that can translate to postseason success. First, the Hoos don’t turn the ball over much. They’re sixth nationally in turnovers allowed per-possession. Virginia shares the ball well, too, second nationally in assists per made field goal. The Cavaliers didn’t shoot it as well over the course of the season as they did early in the year, but at 35.9 percent, they are a solid outside shooting team with room to exceed their average. On defense, UVa doesn’t allow opponents to get to the line much, ranking 26th nationally in free throws allowed per field-goal attempt. The Hoos are also 22nd nationally in block rate, and despite playing a relatively small lineup, they only allow opponents to shoot 46.8 percent on two’s.
And now, let’s discuss why it feels like the Hoos may be trending towards a short postseason.
For nearly all of the arguments above, there is a counter-argument that can be made.
To start, their strongest performances in the early season are fading in the rear view and have been replaced by more modest outcomes. The win over Baylor was 108 days ago now. And while it’s nice to reminisce on that win and a couple of others, we also must acknowledge the reality of Virginia’s last few weeks of basketball. The Hoos have won just once away from JPJ since January 30. Since then, they’ve lost at Virginia Tech, BC, and UNC. None of those games was within a possession, and the BC loss came by 15. UVa also survived a four-win Louisville team. And at home, the Cavaliers weren’t exactly dominant in February, either. Perhaps finishing the season on a two-game winning streak is a sign of a turnaround, but we don’t know that for certain yet especially since both games were at home.
We mentioned UVa’s lineup flexibility, but it’s also worth mentioning that the Wahoos play small a lot and some teams, namely UNC, have exploited the it with multiple bigs.
Virginia is a solid shooting team, but that average has been steadily falling since a strong start to the season. In the rough offensive stretch against Louisville, Notre Dame, BC and UNC, the Cavaliers shot 21-for 75, or 28 percent, from deep. Even in their two wins last week, UVa was just 11-for-37 (29.7 percent) from 3. While the Hoos have several capable shooters, they do turn it off and on from game to game. Vander Plas has been an important part of what UVa does on offense, but from a volume standpoint he’s been rather inefficient as a shooter. He has 109 attempts from 3-point range, which is third most on the team (Franklin at 150, McKneely at 112), but is shooting just 30.3 percent.
Vander Plas also struggles at the line, which is another issue for the entire team heading into the postseason: UVa is shooting 70 percent from the stripe, 250th-best nationally. That’s its worst average since shooting 67.3 percent in the 2014 season. These woes have been costly at times, too. This is the type of issue that can cost a team a game and in March that can easily mean the end of your season.
Even UVa’s experience can be a bit misleading. Make no mistake, this group has played a lot of basketball and the team is certainly older than most it’ll face from here on. But the group doesn’t have a lot of NCAA Tournament experience outside of Clark, but even he has played in just one game in the Big Dance since 2019. Gardner is a fifth-year with zero career NCAA Tournament games under his belt. Franklin has never played in an NCAA Tournament game, either. Beekman has 38 minutes of NCAA Tournament experience, in a first-round loss in 2021. And Vander Plas played in two NCAA games in 2021 which is valuable; ironically, his one win came against UVa, and he led all scorers in that game. It’s not fair to say that UVa has little NCAA experience so the amount of games played is meaningless, but it’s worth noting that outside of Clark nobody on this team has played on a Tournament team that has put a string of wins together.
And from a metrics standpoint, UVa is solid but not elite on either end and has the profile of a team that could maybe win a game or two in the NCAA’s, or make it to the final of their conference tournament, but will probably hit the wall before they can make a meaningful run in the big dance. UVa is No. 37 in KenPom, third among ACC teams behind Duke and Miami. The Hoos haven’t played a team ranked better than 31st since their loss to Houston on December 17. They are ranked 73rd nationally in offensive efficiency behind teams like 14-19 Detroit Mercy, 18-13 Wake Forest, 13-18 Stanford, and so on. UVa has had years like this, but usually it’s paired a decent offense with an elite defense. This season, the defense is fine but not elite at 34th nationally.
Looking at last year’s NCAA Tournament, the Tar Heels made a surprising run to the title game; they entered the NCAA Tournament ranked 30th in KenPom. Miami also made a surprising run in the dance to the Elite 8 as a 10-seed, entering the NCAA’s ranked 57th. But two of their opponents were below 40th in the rankings, and one of them, Kansas, handed the Canes a 26-point loss. Teams like Saint Peter’s and even Miami show that groups can be up and down in the regular season and make a run but the examples are exceptions, not the rule.
Final Thoughts
We’ve made compelling cases for a deep postseason run and for early exits. The case for postseason success hinges on UVa leveraging its depth and experience and finding a way to get closer to the way the Hoos played early in the season.
That means taking care of the ball, hitting 3s, and locking down on defense when they need to. It also depends on them being able to find important minutes for Dunn and McKneely, and that exposure working out well for the team.
The case against the Cavaliers is pretty simple: They peaked early after a summer trip gave them an advantage in November and since then have regressed towards the mean, which isn’t a bad team by any stretch, but is more like a middle-of-the-bracket seed than a top-four seed that they’ll likely be in the NCAA’s.
While they’ve played with some really good teams, they haven’t played anyone truly elite since December and have also allowed some terrible teams to at least be in a close game with them in the final minute.
With 29 games played, we have a pretty good idea what this UVa team is and where it fits into the grand scheme of things. The Cavaliers are talented and experienced enough, coupled with having an elite coach, to make a meaningful run, maybe even to a Final Four.
But it’s also worth admitting that this team would probably need a break or two for that to work out, like getting to play an lower seed further into the bracket at some point. This team can make a run, but it’s difficult to imagine them beating a “chalk” bracket to to make that run. This team could also just as easily lose their first game. If they’re a #4 seed, they could draw a team that isn’t too far behind them from a metrics standpoint, and the Vegas line might be closer than some fans expect.
What will ultimately happen, most likely, will be somewhere in the middle of those two scenarios. If I was betting, I’d probably take the Hoos to win a game or two before the season ends in the Round of 32 or 16. Any wins to reach those rounds will probably be hard fought, and if they lose early, it’ll likely be a close game where they came up short or didn’t make enough shots.
As the postseason arrives, UVa is going to be dangerous for every opponent and they’ll also be a danger to themselves.
Any game is winnable and any game is loseable. So, grab some Pepto because it’s probably going to be a wild ride. The question is: How long will this ride last?
