27-7, 15-3 SoCon

No. 89 KenPom

Virginia will open NCAA Tournament play on Thursday afternoon in Orlando against Furman, the champions of the Southern Conference (12:40 p.m., TruTV). The Paladins enter the tournament ranked 89th in Kenpom, third best among 13-seeds. For comparisons, UVa has played 81at Virginia Tech, 88th Wake Forest and 101st JMU, though all teams get to their place in the rankings in different fashions.

Furman cruised through its league, going 15-3 and winning 14 of the last 15 games. Oddly, the one loss was at The Citadel, ranked 325th in KenPom.

The SoCon is a decent mid-major league but in the six years under head coach Bob Richey the Paladins are 78-23 against their conference. This year, they lined up against a few bigger programs in non-conference play. They lost to Penn State, a 10-seed in the NCAA field, by five on a neutral floor in November. Furman also beat a bad South Carolina team by 19 but lost to NC State by 19 on the road.

From a statistical profile standpoint, the Paladins have an efficient offense that shredded the competition. The Paladins are first nationally in two-point field-goal percentage, making 59.1 percent inside the arc. Furman takes a lot of 3s, too, with 46.4 percent of their attempts coming from long range. Furman’s defensive profile is more middle-of-the-road and given the nature of their league competition UVa could find some success scoring against the Paladins.

Mike Bothwell, Guard: Furman’s leading scorer, Bothwell is an experienced senior guard that does a lot of his damage around the rim. Averaging 18 points per game, he has made 61.1 percent of his two’s this season. Bothwell had a 26-point effort against Penn State earlier this season, and has a pair of 30+ point performances on the year.

Jalen Slawson, Forward: Bothwell is dangerous, but Slawson may be even more scary for the Hoos on Thursday. Slawson is second on the team in scoring at 15.7 points per game, and is also a great rebounder with 7.1 per contest. He shoots 33.4 percent from 3 on the year, despite being one of Furman’s biggest players. Slawson also averages 3.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks per game, which speaks to his abilities on both ends of the floor.

27-6, 15-3 Mountain West

No. 14 KenPom

If Virginia gets by Furman and is matched up with SDSU, we could have quite a defensive struggle on our hands.

Though they’re a seed lower, the Aztecs would likely be favored against UVa should they meet in the second round. San Diego State went 27-6 and 15-3 in a Mountain West conference that has a lot of respect from metrics and pundits, but didn’t win a single NCAA Tournament game last season despite getting a bunch of bids. Losses have been few and far between for the Aztecs, who have won 10 of their last 11, and took home the Mountain West Tournament title, beating Utah State for the crown on Saturday night.

The Aztecs have a 14-6 record against top-100 Kenpom teams and they haven’t lost to a team ranked lower than 52nd nationally in efficiency (New Mexico). That was also their only loss to a team that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs’ only loss since January came in a six-point road loss at Boise State, a 10-seed in the Big Dance.

San Diego State has a decent offense, ranked 64th nationally in efficiency, but they’re one of the best defensive teams in the country. SDSU is 10th in defensive efficiency, and like UVa, force teams to play methodical, half-court basketball to score points. Opponents are shooting just 29.2 percent on 3s, and the Aztecs force a decent number of turnovers, clean up the glass, and so on. SDSU has also shown that they have more than one recipe for victory.

Case in point: In February, San Diego State beat UNLV 82-71 and a few days later beat Fresno State 45-43. The recent games look like UVa scores though, scoring between 60 and 67 points in each of their last five, with all of their conference tournament wins coming in low-scoring games.

Matt Bradley, Guard: SDSU’s only player in double figures, the former Cal Bear is averaging 12.9 points per contest. Bradley heads into the tournament coming off of a 16-point performance in the Mountain West Championship game against Utah State. Bradley has more than 2,000 career points and shoots 37.7 percent from three, and shot over 40 percent from beyond the arc last year.

31-3, 16-2 CAA

No. 73 KenPom

The other team that UVa could see this weekend is the Charleston Cougars, champions of the CAA.

If overall record determined seeding, Charleston would be at the top of the bracket. The Cougars went 31-3 this season, starting 21-1 and 9-0 in league play. C of C then dropped back-to-back games before winning out, taking 10 straight contests including their conference tournament. The CAA isn’t as strong of a mid-major league as it once was, but the Cougars also had wins over Virginia Tech, MAC champion Kent State, Davidson and others. One of their three losses came in the second game of the season, when they lost a 102-86 shootout at UNC.

Charleston is a team that knows how to win, but can the Cougars beat a team of SDSU’s caliber? UNC (47th in KenPom) is the only team they have played in the top 50, and despite having a 31-win season, they are just 2-2 against top-100 teams. In fact, 17 of their wins are against teams 250th or worse in Kenpom along with one victory against a non-D1 team.

The Cougars are solid on both ends of the floor, ranking 70th nationally in offensive efficiency, 75th in defensive efficiency. They don’t shoot the 3 particularly well, making just 33.3 percent of their attempts, but do a decent job on two’s at 52.9 percent. CofC does a great job on the offensive glass and don’t turn it over much, either. On defense, Charleston has elite perimeter defense, allowing opponents to make just 30.3 percent of their 3s. The Cougars rank 107th nationally in turnovers forced per possession and don’t foul much, ranking 22nd nationally in free throws allowed per field-goal attempt.

Ante Brzovic, Forward: A 6-foot-10 forward from Croatia, Brzovic could become a household name if the Cougars go on a tournament run. The sophomore is one of the team’s leading scorers at 11.6 points per game, and he can stretch the floor, stepping out and hitting occasional threes. Brzovic scored 50 points and grabbed 24 rebounds over three games in the CAA Tournament.