Odds and Ends: Breaking down the ACC lines for Week 8

A slew of surprises last week in the ACC, as Syracuse upended Clemson, Boston College managed to get by Louisville, and UVa remained hot and beat UNC. The deeper we get into the season, the thicker the plot gets and this weekend there are more games to help us figure out just which teams deserve our confidence.

So let's get started...

The Wahoos are one win away from bowl eligibility and they have a good shot to get that on Saturday as they host Boston College. The Eagles had a rare offensive explosion last time out beating the Cardinals 45-42 on the road in a game where they accounted for over 550 yards of offense. To put that in perspective, they had scored 45 points over the previous three weeks against Clemson, CMU, and Virginia Tech combined. Going on the road for the second straight week after a huge upset is a perfect spot for me to take the Cavaliers. UVa has won four straight and has covered in each of those games as well. The defense is playing well right now and the offense is doing just enough to win these close games. The under might be worth a look here with BC going under in 22 of its last 32 games including 20 of its last 27 Saturday games. The Hoos have gone under in 12 of their last 18 ACC contests. I think the home team and the under are worth a look.

The Hokies are coming off a bye week and they get Charmin soft North Carolina. The Tar Heels are 1-6 and are allowing teams to rack up over 460 yards per game. Justin Fuente said on Monday that he has a lot of banged up guys and doesn't know who will play in this one. He's been tight-lipped a lot of the season on injuries so who knows what that means. To me, last week was a good opportunity for the Hokies to reload and refocus as they finish up with mostly ACC Coastal opponents. Tech traditionally has not been great as a double-digit favorite covering just twice out of its last six and 33 of its last 72 games in this situation. Still, the Heels are so bad that I don't think I could take them either. They've only played two road games winning at ODU while losing at Georgia Tech. I think the Hokies roll in this one but I'm not taking them to cover.

Miami continues to live on the edge as the Canes got a late touchdown to knock off Georgia Tech last week. Syracuse, meanwhile, is flying high off a Friday night win at home against Clemson. I think people are beginning to realize how good Eric Dungey is when healthy. The Orange's defense is also slightly better than perhaps everyone realizes. Still, one has to wonder about focus as they hit the road. Their next three are at Miami, at Florida State, and home against Wake Forest. The Hurricanes have four of their next five at home. Their defense is making stops when they have to but the offense has had it's struggles without Mark Walton. The U is 15-6 against the spread the last three seasons as a favorite and they've skewed heavily to the under as of late. Surprisingly Syracuse has as well with six of its seven tilts going under the total. I probably will sit this one out but I think Miami's luck has to end soon.

Boy, Vegas is showing a lot of faith with the Seminoles in this one. They are coming off a very meh performance at Duke in which they won 17-10. The offense moved the ball pretty well but not when it needed to. They've already lost at home to NC State and Miami and will get a more focused Louisville coming to town after losing at home to BC. Offense wasn't the issue with Lamar Jackson accounting for 500 yards or so himself but it's the defense that has been a massive disappointment so far this season. Revenge will certainly be an angle here after the Cardinals smashed the Noles 63-20 at home last year. These two teams are a combined 1-10-1 against the spread this season so neither has been a really good wager. An odd trend is that FSU is 4-12 ATS since 1992 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. I lean to Louisville on the road in this one but by no means do I feel that confident in them. If you do like the road team, I'd get in now as I think this falls as the week continues.

For more insight on the odds, follow Matt on Twitter at @MidMajorMatt and find more of his picks and selections at Sportscapping.com where he handicaps college football and specializes in the Group of 5 (although the ACC is also in his wheelhouse). You can also listen to his show "Border to Border" from 11 a.m. to noon on ESPN 950 AM and 102.7 FM in Richmond.