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Odds and Ends: Breaking down the ACC lines for Week 9

Once again the ACC will have one of the biggest games of the week as Florida State takes on Clemson. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is back in the Thursday night spotlight once again as they play at Heinz Field against Coastal Division foe Pitt. Overall, this should be another great week in the conference.

Let's get started...


Louisville (-31.5) at UVa: 

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Good luck to the Wahoos as they take on Louisville on Saturday: The Cardinals are averaging 52.6 points per game and putting up 616.9 yards on offense. This team has road wins of 34 at Syracuse and 31 at Marshall to go along with the six-point loss at Clemson. There is no look-ahead factor to cling to with a road game at Boston College next on the schedule. This will be a Lamar Jackson party most likely as he continues to add to his Heisman credentials. The Hoos, meanwhile, are trying not to go 0-3 during this three-game homestand. They continue to be a good bet as an underdog going 17-5 ATS the last three seasons. I'll never recommend to anyone to lay that many points on the road, but I certainly can't take the home team either. Best case may be the over with the Cavaliers getting in on the scoring party.


Virginia Tech (-3.5) at Pitt:

Tech looked great once again last week as the Hokies beat up Miami on the ground. The defense continues to be stout as well, holding opponents to just 302 yards of offense per game. Next up is tonight's tilt at Pittsburgh where they have lost five of their last eight. The Panthers won in Blacksburg last year 17-13, holding the Hokies to just 100 yards of offense. Pat Narduzzi is a defensive guy yet Pittsburgh can't play much of it. They've gone over in all but one contest this season. You can't count out their offense with James Conner at running back. Pitt has covered just four of its last 17 games at home while the Hokies are 16-5 ATS since 1992 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. I lean to the home team but don't love anything in this one.


The Cavaliers have a huge challenge ahead this weekend when UL comes to town.
The Cavaliers have a huge challenge ahead this weekend when UL comes to town. (VirginiaSports.com)

Clemson (-5) at Florida State:

In an odd scheduling quirk, both of these teams are coming off a bye week. They are each prolific on offense while Clemson is the stronger team on defense. The Tigers are undefeated to this point but probably isn't getting the credit they deserve for what they've done so far. They have not played up to their potential for the most part and have had 10 turnovers offensively the last three weeks. FSU, meanwhile, has won two straight so the Noles are feeling good about themselves as the defense has held their last two opponents to just 25 points. The last two years in this series have been low-scoring affairs with each team winning at home. The Seminoles have been a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points just twice since 1992, winning one of those games outright. Clemson has covered just four of its last 11 games as a road favorite. While FSU has won 11 of its last 12 at home in this series, the Noles only covered six of those matchups.


Miami (-2.5) at Notre Dame:

The "Where is their head at?" Bowl takes place in South Bend this weekend as Notre Dame hosts Miami. The Irish opened up as a favorite and were quickly bet to an underdog. They are 2-5 on the season and you can point to a leaky defense as the reason why. This team has lost two straight and four of their last five with the lone win against Syracuse. Notre Dame's offense has failed them these last two weeks with just 13 points scored and 208 total passing yards. Miami, meanwhile, has lost three straight with the catalyst being a missed extra point against Florida State. The offense has sputtered, but the banged up defense has also struggled. Depending on the injury report and how many of the walking wounded are on the U's side of things, I'd consider Notre Dame who is potentially playing for its postseason life in this one.



For more insight on the odds, follow Matt on Twitter at @MidMajorMatt and to find more of his picks outside the ACC, give him a look on Sportscappers by clicking here or Kellyinvegas.com by clicking here.


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