Clemson (21-8, 13-5 ACC) at No. 13 UVa (21-6, 13-5)
7 p.m., ACC Network
Following back-to-back losses over the past week, the Cavaliers return home looking to finish the regular season strong. UVa plays the first of two games at JPJ this week tonight when the Hoos host Clemson.
For both teams, there is plenty on the line as they jockey for seeding in the ACC Tournament. In addition, the Tigers are looking to work their way into the NCAA Tournament field while the Hoos try to bolster their seeding in the Big Dance.
Tonight’s game will be the first meeting between the two teams this season.
Clemson emerged as a league favorite with a hot start to conference play, starting 7-0 and eventually getting to 10-1. Then its fortunes changed for the worse, as the Tigers dropped three straight games to BC, Miami and UNC, the last of which came by 20 points. They hit rock bottom on February 18, picking up a devastating 10-point loss at Louisville. That was Clemson’s third Quad-4 loss of the season, having already fallen to South Carolina (No. 222 KenPom) and Loyola Chicago (No. 257).
Since that loss to the Cardinals, Clemson has played much better. The Tigers handled Syracuse at home, winning by 18, and then destroyed NC State on the road over the weekend for arguably their most-important win of the season. Now, they’ll come to Charlottesville looking to further cancel out those bad losses with another Quad-1 win away from home.
The Numbers
Clemson ranks No. 69 in KenPom heading into the final week of the regular season, seventh-best among ACC schools. Like UVa, Clemson is a top-100 team on both ends of the floor but not really elite on either end, though the offense has been quite good in the last week scoring 90+ points in back-to-back wins.
With the basketball, the Tigers rank 73rd nationally in efficiency. They shoot it pretty well from all over the court, making 54.1 percent of their two’s and 36.7 percent from 3 with both averages in the top-50 nationally. UVa fans have recently discovered the importance of making free throws, and that’s an area where Clemson thrives: The Tigers shoot 79.5 percent at the line, fourth-best nationally. Clemson also does a good job avoiding turnovers, ranking 43rd nationally in turnovers allowed per possession and 45th nationally in steal rate allowed. Like UVa, the Tigers don’t crash the offensive glass too much and they rank near the bottom in offensive rebound rate.
On the other side of the court, Clemson ranks 67th nationally in defensive efficiency. It best quality has been the interior defense, where opponents are making just 45.9 percent of their two-pointers. The Tigers have allowed opponents to shoot 33.5 percent from 3 as well. They don’t force a lot of turnovers, ranking 250th nationally in turnover rate and 295th in steals per possession.
The Matchups
Clemson has an experienced roster with a very good frontcourt surrounded by quality guard play. Most teams get the bulk of their scoring from the backcourt, but both of Clemson’s top scorers are big men.
Senior forward Hunter Tyson is the team’s leading scorer and is likely going to be first-team All-ACC in a week’s time. A 6-foot-8 forward who can play inside and out, he averages 15.6 points and 9.4 rebounds per contest, improving significantly in both categories over his five-year career at Clemson. Tyson will be a tough cover for the Hoos, as he can score around the rim and is also a 42.3 percent 3-point shooter, making 69 on the season. In last week’s win against Syracuse, he scored 29 points and hit six 3s while grabbing 10 boards.
Tyson is joined in the frontcourt by talented center P.J. Hall. Another great scorer, he is scoring 15.4 points and grabbing 5.4 rebounds per contest, despite playing just 24.3 minutes per game. Hall is playing great basketball heading into this week, scoring at least 16 points in each of his last six games, with 20+ in three of his last four, including 28 at Louisville.
In the backcourt, the Tigers are led by senior guard Chase Hunter. Averaging 14.3 points per game, he has been a great scorer and distributor, too, dishing out 4.5 assists per game. Hunter is shooting 36.6 percent from deep and is taking nearly 12 shots per contest. Like Hall, Hunter comes to Charlottesville playing good basketball of late, scoring 13+ points in each of his last five starts.
Senior guard Brevin Galloway is another quality scorer for the Tigers and has proven to be a great addition via the transfer portal. Galloway followed Earl Grant from Charleston to BC and then returned to the Palmetto State after one year in Chestnut Hill. At Clemson, Galloway is scoring 11.6 points per contest, doing most of his damage on two-pointers, shooting 40.4 percent from the floor and 32.9 percent from long range.
The Outlook
Given how the last two weeks have played out, both teams need this game pretty badly. Two weeks ago, UVa ranked No. 14 in KenPom and Clemson was 80th. Now, UVa is 38th and the Tigers rank 69th.
The Tigers are playing better than the Wahoos at the moment, and just proved that they could go on the road and beat a quality team in the blow out of NC State. But a week earlier, they also proved they can lose to anyone in the conference, dropping a road game at Louisville.
Virginia played hard in the second half at UNC and did some good things, outside of the dreadful performance on layup attempts. If they can bring that effort to JPJ tonight and find a way to get stops, like they did in their win over NC State, the Cavaliers can win this game. If they play the way they did against Louisville, Notre Dame, BC and in the first half against UNC, they’re going to lose their third straight game here.
How UVa chooses to defend Clemson’s big lineup will be interesting to watch. Hall is a more traditional big man at 6-foot-10, so this may be a game where Kadin Shedrick gets more extended minutes. And we’ll all be watching UVa’s performance on the other end of the floor, where they’ve labored in recent games and have struggled to get open looks, and make down the ones they to create.
We’re going to take UVa to turn things around at least a bit and stop the losing streak at two. JPJ is a hard place to win on the road and if the Tigers get the win, they’ll have earned a place into the NCAA Tournament field for now.
They’ll be motivated in this one, and given how UVa has played in the last few weeks, the Hoos should be fired up to play this one too.