No. 13 Furman (27-7, 15-3 SoCon) vs No. 4 Virginia (25-7, 15-5 ACC)

12:40 p.m., TruTV

UVa fans won’t have to wait long for the Hoos to make their NCAA Tournament debut today, as they will tip-off their First Round game against Furman as the second game of the first day of the Big Dance.

Their opponent will be the Paladins, champions of the Southern Conference. A year after a heartbreaking loss in their league championship game on a long buzzer beater, the Paladins went 15-3 in SoCon play and rolled through the conference tournament to earn the league’s automatic bid.

Furman has been a very solid mid-major program for some time before breaking through and reaching the tournament this year. In six years under head coach Bob Richey, considered a rising star in the game, the Paladins have won 20+ games five times, with the lone exception being the 2021 season when they went 16-9 in a shortened season.

Virginia enters today’s game as a modest favorite, looking for its first NCAA Tournament win since the 2019 National Championship Game (second attempt).

Speaking of Furman’s sustained success, this year’s team is their lowest-ranked team in KenPom in the last four seasons. The Paladins rank 89th nationally in overall efficiency heading into the tournament. For comparison, that puts Furman a few spots behind Virginia Tech and one spot ahead of Wake Forest.

The Paladins have one of the nation’s most-efficient offenses, so the pack-line will be tested. Furman ranks 33rd nationally in offensive efficiency, 43 spots ahead of Virginia. They don’t have the biggest lineup but the Palladins certainly have success getting to the rim and scoring. They have made 59.1 percent of their two-point field goals, the best average in the nation. From 3, Furman takes a lot of shots, ranking 13th nationally number of field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. The Paladins aren’t always red hot from deep, though, making 34.4 percent of those attempts, but if they can exceed their average with the volume of 3s they take, they’ll be a dangerous opponent for UVa. Furman also takes good care of the basketball, ranking 38th nationally in turnovers allowed per possession.

Defensively, Furman looks a bit more exploitable for UVa. The Paladins rank 184th nationally in defensive efficiency, a few spots ahead of Syracuse. They aren’t elite in any defensive area but they’re not terrible in most of them, either. Furman is 156th nationally in turnover rate forced, and opponents have an effective field-goal percentage of 50.6 percent. If there’s one area where UVa might be able to give the Palladins trouble it’s around the rim: Virginia is a bigger team with more lineup combinations, and the Paladins allow opponents (most of them smaller in the SoCon than what they’ll face this afternoon) to shoot 51.2 percent on two-pointers, ranking 229th nationally in the category.

Mike Bothwell, Guard: Furman’s leading scorer, Bothwell is an experienced senior guard that does a lot of his damage around the rim. Averaging 18 points per game, he has made 61.1 percent of his twos this season. Bothwell had a 26-point effort against Penn State earlier this season and has a pair of 30+ point performances on the year.

Jalen Slawson, Forward: The SoCon’s best player, Slawson is a dangerous 6-foot-7 wing that can score around the rim and knock down jumpers. He is second on the team in scoring at 15.7 points per game and is also a great rebounder with 7.1 per contest. Slawson shoots 34 percent from deep on the year, despite being one of Furman’s biggest players. He also averages 3.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks per game, which speaks to his abilities on both ends of the floor.

J.P. Pegues, Guard: The Paladins’ point guard has emerged as a capable scorer and is potentially the future of the Furman program. Pegues, a sophomore, is third on the team in scoring at 12 points per game and had a pair of 20+ point games in the SoCon Tournament. Pegues also leads the team in assists with four per game.

Marcus Foster, Guard: A bigger guard, Foster is a solid scorer that takes care of the glass, too. He is Furman’s fourth and final player averaging double figures scoring at 10.6 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Foster is a decent outside shooter, making 36.4 percent of his 165 three-point attempts.

UVa comes into today’s game the favorite but not a big one. Furman has emerged as a trendy upset pick since the bracket was released on Sunday afternoon and in reviewing their season, it’s easy to see why so many folks are on the Palladins. They have a bunch of talented players that can manufacture points, they’re well coached, and they know how to win.

It sounds like a copout, but like many NCAA Tournament games, this will come down to which team executes better, particularly in the second half.

UVa has a size advantage and perhaps the Wahoos can find a way to shut down Furman enough to get the win. But there will be pressure on the offense after a rough outing against Duke on Saturday, to pull together and overcome an upset-minded Paladins team. The Cavaliers will also need to clean up the glass, and not leave points on the table at the rim or at the free-throw line.

Furman is a dangerous team that can certainly win this game, particularly if they start knocking down threes. But we’re going with UVa’s size and experience to come through in what should be a challenging first round game at a minimum.