No. 22 NC State (19-5, 9-4 ACC) at No. 8 UVa (17-4, 9-3)

9 p.m., ACCN

Following their first loss in a month, the Hoos return to action tonight for the first of two tough home games this week. First up, they host the the Wolfpack, a team that is now on a hot streak of their own. State enters Tuesday’s game 19-5 and back in the Associated Press Top 25 this week, winners of four straight games. Three of those four victories were at home, including a closer-than-expected win over Georgia Tech on Saturday, but the Wolfpack did earn a big road win at Wake at the end of January.

Both UVa and NC State come into this one with nine ACC wins, with the Hoos a half game up by virtue of having one fewer loss. Needless to say, the results of this contest will have a significant impact on the ACC race and the winner will own a potential pivotal head-to-head tiebreaker, with the two teams meeting just once this season.

Virginia could be tied for first place in the conference with a win, and if they lose, the Cavaliers could be as low as fifth in the standings heading into the weekend.

NC State is now ranked though metrics have been more static of late. The Wolfpack rank 47th in KenPom and reached as high as No. 36 on January 14. Since then, they have hovered in the 40s or low 50s since their loss to UNC on January 21.

NC State ranks 39th nationally in offensive efficiency and should provide a tough test for UVa’s suddenly more vulnerable defense. State takes great care of the basketball, ranking second nationally in turnovers surrendered per possession.

Unsurprisingly, the Pack rank 26th nationally in steals allowed and are also rarely blocked by opponents. They aren’t an elite shooting team, but they are far from poor, making 50.9 percent of their two-pointers and 35.2 percent of their 3s, just outside the top 100 nationally in both categories. NC State does like to get out and run the floor, ranking 60th nationally in tempo, so they’ll have to adjust to a half-court game in Charlottesville.

On defense, State ranks 63rd nationally in efficiency. NCSU is 37th nationally in steal rate and 38th nationally in block rate, a pair of stats that can help the Pack get easy buckets through transition opportunities. Opponents are making just 30.9 percent of their 3-point tries, and as a result opponents get just a quarter of their points from made 3s. State does allow opponents to get to the line a good amount though, ranking 247th nationally in free throws to field goals ratio.

NC State’s lineup features a dangerous backcourt, led by one of the top scoring guards in the nation. Sophomore Terquavion Smith had an impressive freshman campaign last year and has built on that effort in 2022-23. He leads the team in scoring with 18.5 points per contest and dishes out 4.6 assists per game too. Smith is coming off of his worst outing of the season, scoring 5 points against GT on Saturday, going 2-for-11 from the field, and 1-of-7 from deep. Still, he has scored in double figures in every other game, and less than a week ago, went for 32 against Florida State.

Senior guard Jarkel Joiner is another prominent scorer in the backcourt, averaging 16.2 points per game. Joiner is in his fifth season of college basketball and his third school, after two seasons each at Cal State Bakersfield and Ole Miss. He is a career 32.5 percent shooter from 3, and is averaging a career high in rebounds (4.5) and assists (3.2) this season.

And of course, the third piece of State’s backcourt is former Cavalier Casey Morsell, who has carved out a nice role for himself in Raleigh. Morsell is averaging 12.6 points per game, a career high, and has improved his outside shooting dramatically. After making just 17.6 percent of his 3s as a freshman at UVa and 26.3 as a sophomore, Morsell is up to 43.9 percent this year and has already scored nearly 100 more points this year (302) than he did in his two-year stint at UVa (220).

In the frontcourt, the player to watch is 6-foot-9 senior D.J. Burns. A transfer from Winthrop that initially signed with Tennessee out of high school, Burns is thriving with the Wolfpack, averaging 12.1 points and 4.9 rebounds per contest. Burns is playing some of his best basketball of late, going for 31 just over a week ago and scoring 24 against Georgia Tech on Saturday. Burns is a physical presences at 275 pounds who can play with physicality and touch, and should provide a tough test to UVa’s big men, should they play.

Despite Duke’s blowout loss at Miami on Monday, there will likely still be a lot of hype around Saturday’s home game against the Blue Devils as that’s always an event at JPJ. But the focus should be on this game, as the Wolfpack are probably the better of UVa’s two opponents this week.

State is playing good basketball right now and can exploit UVa’s biggest weakness, defending the rim and handling big men. The Pack have guards that can get in the lane and either score or dish to shooters. And Burns is going to be a handful, regardless of how UVa plans to defend him.

We’re going with the Hoos because they’re at home, but they will either need to be firing on all cylinders on offense or they’ll need to be better on the defensive end than what we saw in Blacksburg.