No. 3 Clemson (23-9, 15-6 ACC) vs No. 2 Virginia (24-6 16-5)
Approx. 9:30 p.m., ESPN
Virginia advanced past a desperate North Carolina team last night to make the ACC Tournament Semifinals, where the Cavaliers will take on the Clemson for the second time in less than two weeks.
UVa outscored UNC 43-35 in the second half after a slow start to win 68-59, led by 17 points from Jayden Gardner, 15 from Reece Beekman and 14 from Armaan Franklin, along with some much-needed effort from big men Francisco Caffaro and Kadin Shedrick in the absence of Ben Vander Plas. UVa’s appearance in tonight’s semifinal round is its sixth appearance in the league’s final four since 2014 (not counting 2021, when UVa advanced to the semifinals but didn’t play after because of COVID-19 protocols), after not having made a single appearance in the semis from 1995 to 2014.
Awaiting UVa tonight will be the Tigers, who advanced past 6-seed NC State on Thursday night. They got off to a slow start and trailed by as many as nine halfway through the first half. But eventually Clemson wore down the Wolfpack and then obliterated them in the second half, leading by as many as 28 and outscoring State 41-18 after halftime on the way to an 80-54 rout.
Like UVa’s quarterfinal opponent, the Tigers are desperate for a win to help them position themselves for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament should they not cut down the nets in Greensboro and win the league’s auto-bid.
The Numbers
Clemson ranks No. 52 in KenPom heading into tonight’s game, squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble despite a successful 14-6 record in ACC play during the regular season. The Tigers rank 71st nationally in offensive efficiency and have scored 80+ points in four of their last five games, with the one exception being their loss at JPJ last week. With the basketball, Clemson is shooting a solid 37.2 percent from 3 and os fifth nationally in free-throw shooting. The Tigers also take good care of the ball ranking 49th nationally in turnover rate allowed.
Elsewhere, they also rank 50th nationally in defensive efficiency. Clemson does a good job defending the rim and working hard on the glass; the Tigers allow opponents to shoot just 45.4 percent on two-point field goals, and are 23rd nationally in offensive rebounds allowed per possession.
In last week’s meeting in Charlottesville, Virginia never truly took an insurmountable lead but did keep the Tigers at an arm’s length in a 64-57 win at home. In that game, UVa went just 5-for-19 from deep but did enough damage at the rim and free-throw line to get the victory. The Hoos went 17-for-35 on twos and made 15 free throws, with a 16-to-8 assist-to-turnover ratio. Conversely, Clemson went just 7-of-22 from long range and shot just five free throws in the contest, while also turning the ball over 11 times. Overall the stats between the two teams were relatively close, but Virginia’s edge at the line and playing a bit more clean than their opponent led to a big home win.
The Matchups
Hunter Tyson, Forward: Clemson’s top scorer, averaging 15.5 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Tyson did a lot of the heavy lifting in the first meeting with Virginia, scoring 17 points and keeping the Tigers in the game with some late 3s.
P.J. Hall, Center: Virginia will have to find an answer for Hall after not having much success stopping him in Charlottesville. Hall is averaging 15.5 points per game this season and scored 19 at JPJ last week. Perhaps UVa’s bigger lineup will provide more of a challenge.
Chase Hunter, Guard: In many ways, the Tigers go as Hunter goes. They’re top scorer in the backcourt, Hunter can score from anywhere on the court (13.9 ppg) and is a good distributor, too, averaging 4.7 assists per game. Hunter had just seven points against UVa in the first meeting.
Brevin Galloway, Guard: UVa held Brevin Galloway to just three points in Charlottesville, and the former BC guard didn’t make any of his five two-point field-goal attempts. Still, Galloway is a capable scorer averaging 11.3 points per game, and is more than capable of a quality performance tonight.
Ian Schieffelin, Forward: Not one of Clemson’s most-notable players, Schieffelin still plays a major role on this team and has scoring potential. He dropped 15 points in Clemson’s quarterfinal win over NC State.
The Outlook
Virginia enters tonight’s semifinal as the favorite, but UVa fans shouldn’t confuse that with being in an easy spot. The Tigers are fighting for their postseason lives and, outside of their 40 minutes in Charlottesville, have been playing good basketball of late.
UVa is going to continue to adjust to life without Vander Plas but Clemson might be a decent matchup for the new-look Hoos, who can throw Caffaro and Shedrick and Clemson’s big men.
We’ll go with the Hoos but expect another narrow margin here. UVa bested Clemson at home, but this is a Clemson team that can hold its own in a slugfest, if it comes to that.
We’ll take UVa on the strength of its veteran core, to go out and get the job done against a hungry and talented Tigers team that probably deserves to hear their names called on Sunday night, regardless of tonight’s result.