UVa (20-6, 11-4 ACC) at Virginia Tech (14-11, 6-8 ACC)
7 p.m., ESPN
Following a nail biter of a win at home against Wake Forest, its another quick turnaround for the Hoos as they travel down I-81 to face rival Virginia Tech in Blacksburg tonight. Round 2 between these teams will be UVa’s second two-day turnaround between contests this month. Meanwhile, the Hokies will be looking to avenge their loss in Charlottesville and beat the Hoos in Cassell Coliseum for the fourth consecutive year.
UVa took down VT at JPJ back on January 17, leading for most of the game en route to a 65-57 decision. That victory was the first of eight straight for the Hoos, and marked a turning point in their season after some ugly road losses earlier in January.
Virginia has now won eight of the last nine since that night and is 4-0 on the road after starting the season 0-4. Tech, meanwhile, has been up and down since losing in Charlottesville. The Hokies won their next three games, beating NC State in Raleigh and following up with home wins over BC and Georgia Tech. But a home loss to Duke preceded road setbacks at Miami and Notre Dame. Last week VT beat Florida State in Blacksburg before losing by 15 at UNC on Saturday.
Tonight’s game is another big opportunity for the Hoos to pad their tournament resume, and stay in the ACC title race. A win at VT would be a Quad-1 win for the Hoos, before another Quad-1 game on Saturday against North Carolina. For the Hokies, it’s always good to beat your rival, and to be frank, that’s all they’re playing for at this point. Tech has lost four of the last five, and their at-large NCAA Tournament hopes have basically gone by the wayside at this point, barring something truly unexpected.
The Numbers
In UVa’s win over Virginia Tech in January, the Hoos scored exactly one point per possession, 65 points on 65 trips down the floor. UVa made just four 3s on 14 tries but shot 52.5 percent on twos, making 21 in the win. UVa also had just seven turnovers against 18 assists in the victory. Jordan Minor was a bit of a revelation as well, going form seldom-used backup to key player on this team, starting in this game. He went for 16 points against the Hokies, tied with Reece Beekman to lead the team that night. In the loss, Virginia Tech shot a whopping 30 3-pointers and made 11, but it wasn’t enough. VT shot just 41.7 percent on twos and turned it over 14 times, which all but canceled out the made 3s. UVa also had an advantage at the line, making 11 of 16 free throws to just four makes on as many tries for Tech.
Both UVa and VT rank higher in KenPom now than they did at the time of the first meeting. The Hokies are 62nd heading into this Big Monday clash, ranked 47th nationally in offensive efficiency and 102nd on the defensive end. Tech shoots a slew of 3s as expected and is making 36.1 percent of them this year. The Hokies are also third-best nationally at the free-throw line, shooting 80 percent. On defense, their numbers are more pedestrian. They allow opponents to make 33.9 percent from beyond the arc and 50.6 percent of their two-point tries. VT is also outside the top 300 nationally in block and steal rate.
The Matchups
Sean Pedulla, Guard
Tech’s top scorer, Pedulla is a quick guard that can get the lane but is also a very good outside shooter. The Oklahoma native is averaging 15.5 points and 4.5 assists per contest, and has gone for 20+ points five times this year and 30+ twice. In the first matchup with the Hoos, he led Tech in scoring with 18 points, including four made 3s. But he did struggle to take care of the basketball with more turnovers (seven) than assists (five).
Hunter Cattoor, Guard
In the first meeting between these rivals, Pedulla’s backcourt mate was coming off of an injury but ended up scoring 12 points, going 2-for-5 from deep. Cattoor is scoring 14.3 points per game this year and is making 42.7 percent from long range this season, his fifth-straight season shooting better than 40 percent from 3. He went for 20 points in last week’s home win over Florida State.
Lynn Kidd, Forward
Tech’s skilled big man has had some big performances this year but UVa held him in check in Charlottesville. In Minor’s aforementioned breakout game, he held Kidd to just two points on 1-of-3 shooting and HC Mike Young played Kidd just 16 minutes after he struggled early. Kidd has been better in the games since, and had a 12-point, 15-rebound double-double against the Seminoles last week. He scored 11 in 16 minutes at UNC on Saturday, too.
Tyler Nickel, Guard
Tech’s fourth-leading scorer comes into Monday’s game on a bit of a hot streak. The Harrisonburg native scored 15 in the win over Florida State, and in his return to Chapel Hill, the former Tar Heel scored 14 at the Dean Dome, making 4-of-6 from long range. Nickel struggled early in the UVa game, and ended up 2-of-7 from 3, scoring 8 points in the losing effort. Since then, he has five double-figure scoring efforts in eight contests.
The Outlook
This is a difficult game to pick. Blacksburg has been a tough place for the Hoos to go win of late and the Hokies are always up for this game. In ACC play, VT is 5-2 at home and 1-6 on the road, with Miami and Duke taking homes wins in Cassell. UVa has a shot to join that group, if the Hoos can keep the Hokies offense in check. Their blueprint for a win tonight isn’t much of a mystery: They’ll look to get hot from the outside and hope to keep UVa from doing the same. It’s a recipe that can work and on Tech’s home floor, Young’s bunch usually shoots better.
Stamina will be an interesting factor in this game for both teams, as they are coming off of tough games on Saturday. UVa had to grind out a low-scoring win against Wake Forest while the Hokies had to run and gun with UNC on the road. It would not be a surprise if both teams are a little burned out down the stretch in this one. And UVa needs to figure out how to make some free throws. The Cavaliers had an historically bad day at the stripe against Wake Forest and they’ll need to hit free throws down the stretch in at least a few of their upcoming games, or eventually it will come back to bite them after a few close calls of late.
This is a sentence that we wouldn’t have written a month or so ago, but UVa’s recent play on the road gives us more confidence to pick the Hoos here. They are playing better basketball than Tech at the moment, and this one will probably come down to how many shots they can make on their end of the floor.
If they’re cold, Tech has enough firepower, particularly at home, to pull off the win. If UVa can keep the pressure on, the Cavaliers can pull out a big road win and stay in the ACC title race.