Virginia (21-8, 12-6 ACC) at No.10 Duke (22-6, 13-4 ACC)

6 p.m., ESPN

UVa’s 2023-2024 regular season is rapidly coming to an end, as the Hoos will play their final road game of the season tomorrow when they travel to Duke. It’s Virginia’s only clash with the Blue Devils this season after the programs that have been the winningest in the ACC over the last decade met twice last year; UVa won the regular-season meeting in Charlottesville in OT and Duke avenged the loss in the ACC Tournament title game.

The Blue Devils could still win the ACC regular season title if they were to win out and sharing it with UNC, which is a game ahead of them, is also on the table too. UVa, meanwhile, is lurking behind both UNC and Duke, though the Cavaliers can’t finish first. A win for the Blue Devils would guarantee them a top-two finish and relegate UVa to no better than third. A win for Virginia would tighten the gap between the Hoos and Devils, and with a pair of challenging games on the horizon for Duke (at NC State and UNC at home to finish) they could slip by Duke in the standings by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Virginia went more than two decades without winning at Cameron Indoor Stadium, but has won two of the last four trips to Durham and the most-recent meeting in 2022. The contests between the two programs at Duke have had razor-thin margins, too. Dating back to 2014, every game between the Cavaliers and Blue Devils in that building has been decided by four points or less. Those games included a buzzer-beater win by each team in a one-point game and a UVa two-point win and a pair of Duke wins by one and two points.

According to the metrics, Duke is the best team the Cavaliers have faced this season, ranking No. 8 overall in KenPom, one spot ahead of UNC. The Blue Devils have been elite on both ends of the floor and after starting 5-3 with a pair of disappointing road losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech have been as consistent as just about anyone. The only three losses since December 9 came to Pitt (No. 52 KenPom) by four, UNC (No. 9) by nine and last Saturday at Wake (No. 22), by four.

Offensively, they’re good in nearly every key category. The Blue Devils shoot 38.6 percent from deep, 10th-best nationally, and are 15th nationally in effective field-goal rate. They don’t turn the ball over much, ranking 40th in turnovers allowed per possession, and they can score around the rim, too, ranking 34th in two-point field goal percentage.

Defensively, Duke is 25th nationally in efficiency, and while they aren’t quite as dominant on that end of the floor, the Devils are quite good. Opponents are shooting just 32 percent from 3 and don’t get to the free throw line much. Duke also doesn’t allow many second-chance points, ranking 33rd nationally in offensive rebounds allowed.

Kyle Filipowski, Forward

Among the top players in the ACC, Filipowski is having a very solid sophomore season, averaging 16.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. In two meetings with UVa last year, he had two very different performances. In Charlottesville, UVa held Filipowski scoreless in 30 minutes of action (including that FT), seeing him go 0-for-6 from the floor. In the ACC Tournament final, though, he was a big part of Duke’s win, scoring 20 of its 59 points and grabbing 10 rebounds in the victory, too. Filipowski was a bit quiet in Duke’s last outing against Louisville from a scoring perspective with 9 points, but he did grab 10 boards and dish out 6 assists.

Jeremy Roach, Guard

In a program known for having loads of young talent, Roach is a veteran presence that has given the Blue Devils something they haven’t always had in recent years. He is second on the team in scoring at 14.4 points per contest, and has been very consistent of late. The Leesburg native has scored between 12 and 19 points in six straight games, with 16+ in all but one of them. Roach is also a very good outside shooter, making 48 percent of his 3s this season, and 36.2 percent from deep in his four-year career.

Jared McCain, Guard

Duke’s top freshman, McCain is third on the team in scoring at 13.6 points per contest and he also chips in 4.9 rebounds per game. The 6-foot-3 Sacramento native has been more up-and-down through the season than Filipowski or Roach but when he’s on Duke is really tough to beat. McCain went for 35 points in a win at FSU on February 17, making 8-of-11 from long range. His ability to slash to the rim and knock down outside shots will make him a tough cover for a UVa team that has so many other players to worry about.

Mark Mitchell, Forward

Duke has plenty of scoring options and while Mitchell can also give them that, he is also a valuable chess piece on both ends of the floor. The 6-foot-9 wing has a lot of length and athleticism to guard smaller players and size to hang with more physical forwards, too. Mitchell is averaging 12.8 points and 6.3 rebounds per game and is coming off of a 17-point, 7-rebound effort against Louisville on Wednesday night. He was quiet against the Hoos last year, though, scoring just five points in 55 minutes across the two contests.

Going to Cameron Indoor and winning is always a tough task and if UVa were able to do that, it would be by far the team’s best win of the season and would likely all but punch its ticket to the NCAA Tournament. It’s going to be an uphill battle, though, given where the game is being played and Duke’s variety of weapons.

This feels like a game that the Hoos can hang in if they get off to a good start, and Duke is a little off on the offensive end. UVa will need to make shots, too; this isn’t going to be a game played around the 50-point mark.

Despite a big bounce-back win at BC on Wednesday, we haven’t seen a lot from the Cavaliers lately that indicates they’re about to go into Duke and win. They have struggled in the more live road environments like Virginia Tech, and if things go bad out of the gate on Saturday, it could spiral quickly for them. If they can stick around in this game, win or lose, that will be somewhat encouraging.

This is a big opportunity game for UVa to make a statement and pick up a huge win, but barring a very lopsided loss (which is possible, of course) a loss wouldn’t do too much damage to their NCAA Tournament resume.