No. 6 UVa (21-5, 13-4 ACC) at North Carolina (17-11, 9-8)

6 p.m.,ESPN

UVa’s poor run of form in recent weeks came to a head on Wednesday night, when the Cavaliers were handled by Boston College on the road. Following their first loss in five games, and second loss since January 3, the Hoos will look to avoid a two-game losing skid tomorrow when they travel south for a challenging game against North Carolina.

While UVa is looking to get back on track and stay in the ACC title race, the Tar Heels need this game much more than the Cavaliers do. Having started the season No. 1 in the polls, UNC is now in serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament altogether. Carolina is 17-11 overall heading into the weekend, and most bracketologists have the Tar Heels on the outside of the field looking in with three regular-season games left.

UVa rallied past a shorthanded UNC team in the first meeting between the two schools, outsourcing Carolina 38-29 in the second half en route to a 65-58 win in Charlottesville. UVa trailed by as many as nine in the first half but finished strong and pulled away from Carolina with a 25-8 run after halftime. The win was UVa’s second of a seven-game winning streak, and dropped the Tar Heels to 3-3 in ACC play.

Carolina comes into Saturday’s game ranked 45th in KenPom. It’s been a steady drop for the Heels since starting the season ranked 9th, and their current ranking is their lowest mark of the season. They are solid though not spectacular on either end of the floor, ranking 54th in offensive efficiency and 49th on the defensive end.

With the basketball, UNC has done a great job taking care of things, ranking 16th nationally in turnovers allowed per possession. They also do a decent job on the offensive glass and get to the free-throw line quite a bit. However, the Heels have simply struggled to make shots. On the season, UNC is 256th nationally in effective field-goal percentage, and make just 29.8 percent of its 3s, which is 344th out of 363 D1 teams.

On defense, UNC does a good job on the glass but doen’t force many turnovers. Teams that share the ball well have success against Carolina, with opponents ranking 23rd nationally on average in assists per made field goal.

In the first meeting, UNC made 13 of its 29 two pointers and went 8-for-24 from beyond the arc. UNC also committed 19 fouls and 13 turnovers in the road loss, and had just nine total assists in the game, none in the second half. The Heels did win on the glass despite being down two prominent forwards, out-rebounding UVa 36-32.

For Virginia, success against Carolina came mostly inside the arc, where the Hoos went 18-of-33 on two pointers. UVa made just 6-of-19 from deep but took good care of the basketball and got to the line enough to win the game.

The story in the first meeting between UVa and UNC was the injury to Carolina forward Armando Bacot, which happened just minutes into the contest. Bacot would miss the remainder of the game but returned for the following contest. It’s hard to state how important he is to UNC’s success and the impact his absence could have for the Heels; the senior from Richmond feels like a lock for first-team All-ACC, averaging 17.3 points and 11.1 boards per game.

UNC was also without forward Pete Nance, who is fourth on the team in scoring at 9.7 points per game as he dealt with a bad back. In their absence, freshman forward Jalen Washington had the best game of his young career. He scored a season-high 13 points and grabbed six rebounds, but UVa did a good job shutting him down in the second half after a big first half.

The performance of the R.J. Davis/Caleb Love backcourt is a key to many outcomes for this Tar Heels team. Both players are top scorers, combining for nearly 33 points per game, but they’re also high-usage players who take many shots. So efficiency is the name of the game for the duo.

In the first meeting with UVa, Love got to double figures with 13 points but did so on 4-for-13 from the floor, and a 1-for-9 night from 3. Davis was more efficient, making 6-of-12 from the field and 3-of-5 from deep, scoring a team-high 16 points in the loss.

UNC hasn’t exactly been the model for consistent play or excellence in recent weeks. But UVa has been playing as poorly as they Hoos have all season over the past two weeks.

Virginia is a couple of makeable shots and an officiating error away from being on a four-game losing streak. The only reason the Cavaliers aren’t in such a drought is the fact that their dip in form coincided with a more-favorable spot in the schedule, when they were lucky enough to play a pair of teams that are a combined 2-30 in ACC play, winning both by one possession.

Carolina needs this game more. It’s in the Dean Dome. And despite the fact that they’re not playing great, what we’ve seen from the Wahoos does not match their record or their spot in the AP Too 25.

Surely they could turn things around and win this game, but given its importance to UNC and the fact that it’s in Chapel Hill, we have to go with the Heels and see if the Hoos prove us wrong.