Published Mar 13, 2023
The 3-2-1: ACC Tournament Edition
Justin Ferber  •  CavsCorner
Editor In-Chief
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@justin_ferber

Three Things We Know

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1. They didn’t win it but the Hoos put together a pretty good showing in Greensboro.

The lasting memory from UVa’s weekend at the ACC Tournament may be the sluggish performance in Saturday’s final, but the Cavaliers certainly put in 80 solid minutes of basketball in the previous two rounds. Virginia handled North Carolina after halftime in the quarterfinals, being able to score 1.3 points per possession after intermission en route to a 68-59 win. The victory came just one day after losing Ben Vander Plas to a season-ending hand injury in practice and was a much better overall showing against the Tar Heels than the one we saw two weeks earlier in Chapel Hill.

In the semifinals, UVa dismantled a desperate Clemson team and cruiser to a 76-56 win. After a back-and-forth start, the Cavaliers opened up a comfortable lead that they held throughout the game. They would end up leading by as many as 23 and were able to find some rest for starters down the stretch.

Virginia wasn’t able to turn those two wins into a good performance in the final, where the Hoos scored just 49 points and made just 16 of 48 field-goal attempts (33.3 percent) and couldn’t dig their way out of an early deficit. Credit to Duke, a team that has come together since the loss in Charlottesville, for clamping down on the defensive end and winning every game since that OT loss. It simply wasn’t UVa’s night and it’s always tough playing games on three consecutive days. Still, UVa demonstrated solid play in the two days before against hungry UNC and Clemson teams to make it feel like all hope is not lost going into the NCAA Tournament.


2. Losing BVP hurts but UVa can still win in his absence.

Virginia officially announced Vander Plas was done for the season just before tip-off of the quarterfinal, casting doubt on how the Hoos would play in the subsequent game. And make no mistake, Vander Plas is a big loss. Most teams don’t have a bench as deep as UVa’s and Vander Plas had earned the trust of his coaches and teammates and was a key cog in the team’s postseason plans.

And in Greensboro, Tony Bennett was forced to see what life would look like without the grad transfer. And credit to some of UVa’s less-used players, specifically Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro, the results were mostly good. Defensively, UVa had a very solid tournament and none of the three opponents reached 60 points. Offensively the results were more mixed, but in the first two games the Hoos did more than enough to win the games. And against Clemson, the offense was good pretty much all the way through the game. But the Duke game also showed what life without Vander Plas will be like against teams that are equipped to play with UVa’s bigger lineup, like Duke is.

Still, we saw enough from UVa in the ACC Tournament to feel that while it hurts that Vander Plas won’t be available for the NCAA’s, there is still a recipe to win games with a bigger lineup.


3. The game that ends UVa’s season may look a lot like Saturday’s loss to Duke.

As mentioned above, the defense had a good showing in the ACC Tournament. But on Saturday night, the offense was bogged down. UVa struggled from the field, missing a lot of layups and never really getting comfortable from the outside. Without Vander Plas, the offense has gravitated back towards the “sides” offense Bennett has used often rather than the middle triangle that allows the Hoos to play smaller and stretch out defenses. Against Duke, the offense often felt jammed up and space was hard to come by.

And with nothing but winning programs remaining for UVa, starting this Thursday afternoon with Furman in the first round, there will be teams that can force the Hoos into some tough matchups on the offensive end. The defense is probably going to need to be at the level we saw them at in Greensboro, and UVa will need to find ways to get good looks and knock them down, like against UNC and Clemson. But if (or when) the Cavaliers eventually bow out of the big dance, that game might look a lot like the rock fight we saw in the ACC title game where UVa just can’t get the offense going and loses a frustrating struggle of a game.


Two Questions

1. As the defense improves, can they do enough on offense to see games out?

And that brings us to the biggest question heading into the NCAA Tournament: Can the Wahoos keep the scoring where it needs to be to get wins?

Virginia’s offense really peaked early in the season and was bolstered by great outside shooting. Since then, the offensive numbers have regressed while their defense is now up to No. 25 nationally in adjusted efficiency.

They will either need to get downhill to the rim to convert layups and draw fouls or start knocking down more 3s, or both, to survive the do-or-die games to come. Every team UVa plays in the NCAA Tournament will go on runs where they knock down shots and put Virginia on its heels. The recipe for success is probably winning games in the 50s and lower 60s now more than the higher-scoring wins we saw earlier in the season, but the Hoos will still need timely buckets in tight games, particularly down the stretch.


2. UVa goes as…Jayden Gardner goes?

Heading into his first NCAA Tournament game, Gardner showed flashes of brilliance in Greensboro. In the win over North Carolina, he went for a team-high 17 points and snagged 10 boards in a great performance against a Tar Heels team with plenty of size. And against Clemson, Gardner was really good again, going for 23 points and 12 boards in a blowout win. But against Duke, he had a tough outing, finding it difficult to get good looks against a team with a lot of length and athleticism. In the 59-49 loss, Gardner scored just 7 points on nine field-goal attempts and had just four rebounds.

Without Vander Plas. Gardner’s offense will be even more critical as the team’s margin for error on that end of the floor is now smaller. And Gardner’s ability to shut down forwards, clean up on the glass, and get to the line will be needed in the next tournament.


One Prediction

Isaac McKneely will develop into an All-ACC player during his UVa career.

Virginia struggled to score against Duke but received a boost from McKneely’s 10 points off the bench. While the offense looked sluggish and tentative against Duke at times, UVa’s rookie guard looked pretty comfortable out there and always seems to trust his shot when he gets a good look.

McKneely didn’t provide a lot of offense in the two wins but he may be called upon to provide a big boost and some outside shooting in the NCAA Tournament.

Regardless, his experience this season playing with a veteran team is going to be very valuable in the years to come. It’s clear that he’s already comfortable and has earned the trust of his head coach to play good basketball on both ends, in big moments.

In 2023-24 and beyond, McKneely will have a bigger role on the team and we’re betting on him to have a big-time career in Charlottesville and eventually become one of the best scoring guards in the conference.