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Published Oct 13, 2021
A deep dive into Armstrong's historic half-season at UVa
Justin Ferber  •  CavsCorner
Editor In-Chief
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@justin_ferber


Unfortunately, there won’t be a traditional Film Room this week because of a lack of video available from last week’s win at Louisville. Instead of breaking that game down, we took a look at how UVa quarterback Brennan Armstrong has played through the first half of the season, and how he is on pace for the best passing season in school history.


Improvements From 2020


Armstrong had to overcome an injury early in 2020 and played better as the season went along. In his final five starts of the season, Armstrong threw for 200 yards in each of them, with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. In those games, UVa went 4-1. The Cavalier QB completed 65 percent of his pass attempts in three of those games, all wins. All of this, while also becoming a reliable running threat with his legs.

This fall, Armstrong has taken his passing game to the next level. Armstrong has thrown for 2,460 yards, with no fewer than 268 in any game. Armstrong has thrown for 300+ yards in five games, 400+ in four contests, and has a 554 yard game as well. The southpaw has 17 touchdowns, with multiple passing scores in all but one game, and three or more touchdowns in three contests, including a season-high five passing TDs in the win over Illinois. For comparison to last year, Armstrong has already exceeded his 2020 passing yards total of 2,117. He has nearly eclipsed his touchdown total of 18 from 2020, with 17 this year. Armstrong is throwing one interception per contest, after throwing 11 in eight-and-a-half games last fall. 123 of Virginia’s first downs have come on Armstrong’s completed passes, and his NFL QB rating for the season is 103.1.

Not only is Armstrong throwing for more yards and scores on a per-game basis, he is also making bigger throws, more throws down the field, and more throws that result in large runs after the catch. All of this without sophomore receiver Lavel Davis, who burst onto the scene last fall but has yet to play this season. On the year, Armstrong has increased his yards per attempt from 7.9 yards to 8.6 yards. His completion percentage is up too, from 58.4 percent last season to 64.8 through six games this fall.

And while he is completing a good number of passes, Armstrong’s numbers could be even better. PFF College has UVa pass catchers with 23 drops through six games. That means that Armstrong’s adjusted completion percentage is 75 percent, which is staggering. That means three-fourths of Armstrong’s throws are either completed or on target and dropped.

It’s also worth noting, of course, that Armstrong isn’t the same run threat that he has been. This is likely in part a choice, and also due to the fact that he has worn a brace on one knee since the Illinois game. Still, Armstrong has scrambled just 17 times this season, after doing so 40 times in just over eight games last fall. PFF also grades out the number of “big time throws,” or passes thrown into tight windows down the field, usually resulting in big gains. Armstrong had 20 last year, and has 20 this year, though he’s already thrown the ball 15 more times this fall than he did in 2020.

Virginia hasn’t had much of a running game in 2021, but the threat of the run has apparently been enough. One of Armstrong’s biggest improvement areas over last year is the play action passing game. Last season, Armstrong completed just 14 of 30 pass attempts on play action looks, with a pair of touchdowns and one interception, 204 yards with one sack and a couple of scrambles. This season, the play action game has been one of Armstrong’s strengths, and Robert Anae has been calling those plays more often. On 52 attempts off of play action, Armstrong has completed 35 passes (67.3 percent) with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. These plays account for just 18 percent of Armstrong’s drop backs, but account for more than half of his touchdowns, and 594 yards.

Armstrong’s PFF grades have been better this year at all levels, but his deep ball passing has improved the most from last season. Armstrong has completed 23 of 55 passes of 20 yards or more, which is decent as these are harder to complete with a larger reward. Armstrong has thrown for 719 yards on deep balls, with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. The average depth of his target on long throws is 28.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Last year, Armstrong threw deep 49 times, completing just 16 of those throws, or 32.7 percent. Armstrong connected on five touchdowns on deep balls, and had 557 total yards on those throws, but also had five interceptions down the field. One or two more deep completions per game can be the difference between winning and losing, or keeping a drive alive and scoring points, or coming up empty.


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