We’re not even halfway done with the ACC slate, but a title favorite is starting to emerge. After being picked to finish 11th in the league’s preseason poll, the Tigers have defied the odds (and the predictions) and have a two-game lead in the ACC standings, seven games in. Clemson’s big home win over Duke on Saturday night helped solidify its place atop the league, having now won seven straight and 11 of the last 12 contests. Veterans Hunter Tyson and P.J. Hall have spurred the Tigers to a hot start to conference play, and with a two-game lead and a manageable schedule, Clemson should be considered the favorite to win the regular-season title at this point.

Clemson is projected to finish 15-5 in the ACC in Kenpom, and after the Tuesday night game at Wake, the Tigers play a bunch of winnable games against Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, FS and BC to round out the month. And not to get too far down the road, but UVa fans may want to keep an eye on that February 28th meeting between the Hoos and the Tigers at JPJ, the regular season’s penultimate game that could have significant implications in the conference race if both teams can keep up their current level of play.

Behind Clemson, there are eight teams either 5-2 or 4-3 in league play. Five of them—Pitt, Miami, Virginia, Wake Forest and Syracuse—are 5-2 in ACC games, while UNC, Duke and NC State all sit at 4-3. Typically there wouldn’t be this many teams 5-2 in conference play, with more teams around .500, but that speaks to the poor quality at the bottom of the league, with Louisville, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech a combined 3-24 in ACC games.

UVa is one of those teams sitting at 5-2, with its two league losses to fellow 5-2 teams Pitt and Miami. The Cavaliers also hold a victory over 5-2 Syracuse. They have two more games remaining against the 5-2 squads, playing at Wake Forest on Saturday and traveling to Syracuse at the end of the month.

Obviously by the end of the season some of these teams will separate themselves, positively or negatively. And there are plenty of matchups between these teams going forward: Syracuse and Miami play on Monday, UVa/Wake this weekend, Wake travels to Pitt next week, and so on. Carolina, State and Duke can work their way back up into this group too, or potentially fall back towards .500 as the season plays out.

The big group of eight teams above .500 underscores the strength of Clemson’s position, two games up on a field of teams that will likely trade wins and losses against each other in the weeks to come.

When looking at the logjam of 5-2 and 4-3 teams, along with 7-0 Clemson, it’s easier to determine where things may be heading when looking at the remaining schedules for each team. Obviously schedules can become more or less difficult as the season wears on, but through seven games UVa seems to be one of the teams best positioned to finish strong. The remaining opponents have a 36-53 record, including a pair of games against 0-7 Louisville, two contests with 1-5 Virginia Tech and two more with 2-5 BC. Of the top teams, the Hoos have one meeting with Clemson and it’s at home, They’re done with Pitt and Miami (but will lose head-to-head tiebreakers against both) and have one game left each with Syracuse, Wake, NC State, Duke and UNC. Two of those five are at home.

Clemson’s remaining opponents are 39-51 combined, underscoring the good chance that the Tigers will finish on top. Of the teams at 5-2, they are done with Pitt, they get Miami once, at home, Wake once (on the road), and Syracuse at home. Another team well positioned, perhaps best of the 5-2 teams, is Pittsburgh. The Panthers’ remaining opponents have a combined mark of 35-55 in ACC play, and most of their tough remaining games are at home. In fact, Pitt’s remaining road opponents have a combined ACC mark of 14-27.

Of the 5-2 teams, Miami, Wake and Syracuse look to have slightly tougher schedules than Pitt and UVa, with more contests against teams in the top half of the league. And of all teams .500 or better, UNC looks to have the toughest road ahead.

Can Virginia Tech turn things around?

Picked seventh in the preseason poll, it’s been tough sledding for the defending league champs. The Hokies started the season 11-1 but have dropped five games since, all in ACC play. At 1-5, chances of a strong league record are quickly slipping away and the upcoming schedule does them no favors. Tech goes to Charlottesville on Wednesday and then travels to Clemson this weekend before home games against Duke and Syracuse followed by a trip to Miami and another game against Virginia. The next six games will either give Tech a chance for some big wins and momentum going into a more manageable final strength of games, or it will likely doom them.

Will Louisville win an ACC game?

Most expected that Louisville would be a work-in-progress this season but I doubt anyone thought they Cards would be 2-16 at this point. Outside of back-to-back wins over Western Kentucky and Florida A&M in December, they have had no success and are 0-7 in conference play after a blowout loss to UNC on Saturday. Louisville did play Syracuse close at home and odds are that the Cardinals will eventually pick someone off in their remaining 13 league games. But when looking at each game individually, it’s not easy to spot the obvious win. Our best guess would be a home game against Georgia Tech on February 1.

Monday: Syracuse at Miami (7 p.m., ACCN)

One of those 5-2 vs 5-2 matchups that we discussed above. Miami is trying to bounce back from a loss at NC State, while Syracuse are trying to show that their solid start isn’t just a function of an easier schedule.

Tuesday: Clemson at Wake Forest (9 p.m., RSN)

Another test for the Tigers after taking care of Duke on Saturday night. It’s also the beginning of a tough stretch for the Deacs, who host UVa on Saturday before games at Pitt, against NC State, and at Duke to follow.

Saturday: Miami at Duke (Noon, ESPN)

Will Duke work its way into the title race? If so, the Blue Devils need to take care of these games against fellow competitors.

Saturday: Virginia at Wake Forest (2 p.m., ESPN2 or ESPNU)

After a rivalry game against the Hokies on Wednesday, UVa will need to be ready for a tough road test against a solid Deacs team that knocked off the Hoos at JPJ last season.

Saturday: NC State at North Carolina (5 p.m., ACCN)

Speaking of rivalries, UNC and State both sit 4-3 and have winnable games in the midweek. A victory for either only helps them in the chase for a strong finish but Carolina probably needs it a bit more given the tough remaining slate and the fact that this one is at home and the Heels still have to go to Raleigh later in the season.