The Title Race is Officially Wide Open
The last week provided a chance for the top teams in the conference to separate themselves, or at least put themselves in a better position for the stretch run. Some of them did that, but with Clemson going 0-2, UVa losing in Blacksburg, and Pitt upsetting UNC on the road, the race is now about as wide open as it can be.
Clemson still sits atop the league with a 10-3 record. After last week’s results, Pitt is now in second at 9-3, holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over fellow 9-3 UVa. Miami and NC State are 9-4 and Duke is right there too at 8-4. UNC had a tough week going 0-2, and has dropped to 7-5 in league play with a brutal stretch of games coming up at Wake and home for Clemson and Miami before a trip to Raleigh. Wake and Syracuse round out the teams above .500 in league play at 7-6.
In the next week, there are five games between the teams mentioned above, which will either further complicate or clear up the title race.
If there’s a team that benefits the most from their remaining schedule, it appears to be the Panthers. Pitt has just two games remaining against teams .500 or better in league play, with a home game against Syracuse and the season finale at Miami, which could have major implications. Pitt’s other six games look far more winnable, with contests against Louisville, FSU, BC, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, with three at home and three on the road.
The toughest remaining schedules belong to UNC (outlined above), NC State, and Duke. The Wolfpack have their next three on the road at UVa, BC and Syracuse before consecutive home games against UNC, Wake and Clemson, before their finale at Duke. The Blue Devils have games at Miami and UVa this week, and while they have some winnable games remaining they also play at Syracuse and UNC and host games against NC State and Virginia Tech, two teams that already beat them.
Here Comes Duke?
The Blue Devils had a big week, winning home games against Wake Forest and North Carolina, and have moved from 5-4 to 8-4 in ACC play. And now, we get to see if Duke can take their success on the road. Trips to Coral Gables and Charlottesville this week will be tough, but even a split would be a good result for the Blue Devils.
The rest of the schedule looks pretty tough, but Duke has a young team that appears to be improving as the season goes along. In the win over Carolina on Saturday, freshmen Kyle Filipowski and Tyresse Proctor had strong offensive games, and 7-foot-1 classmate Dereck Lively had a whopping eight blocks in addition to 14 boards.
Duke has been a bit under the radar but now sits just a game back of Clemson, UVa, and Pitt in the loss column. With some big games on the horizon, we’ll soon know if the Blue Devils are rounding into form and have staying power in the ACC title race or if they’re simply playing well at home right now.
Big Week Ahead for UVa
Following their loss at Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers have a big week on tap before the schedule appears to turn in a more favorable direction for their final six games. The Hoos are now a half game behind Clemson and tied with Pitt, who they of course lost to head-to-head. They also have a bunch of teams in the rear-view mirror, including the pair of four-loss teams that are coming to JPJ this week. UVa will play two hot squad in NC State and Duke, with the most fortunate thing for the Cavaliers being the fact that both games are at home.
Still, Virginia needs to figure out how to protect the rim and prevent drives to the basket that yield easy buckets. The pack-line typically doesn’t have this problem, but against UVa’s smaller lineup teams are taking advantage and getting into the lane, scoring much easier than they would against a typical UVa defense. And this week both NC State and Duke are capable of exploiting that weakness, if Tony Bennett and Co. can’t make adjustments be they schematic or via personnel changes.
Quick Questions
Can anyone in the bottom six play their way out?
The focus is on the teams at the top of the league, but in the bottom six there are three teams that appear to be locked into the bottom of the standings and three more that are more capable but have work to do.
Notre Dame, Louisville and Georgia Tech have continued to struggle, with a combined ACC record of 4-33. In games not against one another, the three teams are 1-30, with the one win being Georgia Tech’s upset of Miami on January 4. Barring a very surprising turnaround, these three teams look destined to finish in the bottom three spots and should be headed for short stays in Greensboro.
Right now, the other three teams that would have to play on the first day of the ACC Tournament are Florida State (6-7), Boston College (5-8) and Virginia Tech (4-8). The Hokies are clearly a much better team than their record would indicate, and now that they’re healthy perhaps they’ll go on a run. If you look at the upcoming schedule, Tech hosts BC before road trips to Notre Dame and Georgia Tech, and then has chances to play spoiler at home against Pitt and Miami. It wouldn’t be that surprising if Tech plays its way towards .500 in league play by the time March rolls around.
FSU and BC are ahead of VT for now and have already proven themselves capable of playing spoiler. The Noles have a win at Pitt, and the Eagles knocked off Clemson this week. The bigger question might be which of the teams above .500 might dip enough to drop into a bottom six spot? Syracuse is probably the most vulnerable, as the Orange are likely the worst of the teams with winning records, and have a challenging schedule remaining (at FSU, NCSU, Duke, at Clemson, at Pitt, GT, Wake).
How many ACC teams are going dancing?
We’re now just a month away from the ACC Tournament and the postseason is starting to come into focus. While the conference title race has been the on the radar of our storylines in recent weeks, it’s time to start looking ahead to the Big Dance.
Heading into this week, Joe Lunardi has seven ACC teams in his bracket: UVa, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Miami, NC State and Pitt. Of those seven, UVa, (3-seed), Miami (6-seed) and Duke (6-seed) are the most solidly in the field. UNC, NC State, Clemson, and Pittsburgh are all either 8 or 9 seeds, meaning they’re somewhat safely in the field but certainly have a lot of work to do.
Despite leading the ACC, Clemson has a bit of a dubious NCAA Tournament profile at the moment, with multiple Quad-4 losses, a lackluster non-conference schedule, and a lack of signature wins away from home. The Tigers could be a team that drops out of the field, if they’re not careful down the stretch.
As for those outside the field that can work their way in, that list should include three teams: Syracuse, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. Of those, the Hokies and Demon Deacons are closest to the field. Neither are in the bracket, the first or next four out, but Lunardi lists them as teams he considered when building his bracket. This is not unlike the situation UVa was in at this point last year. Should either of those teams go on a run, and they’ll both have opportunities for signature wins down the stretch, the ACC could be looking at eight bids to the dance, give or take.
Games of the Week
Monday: Duke at Miami (7 p.m., ESPN)
A big start to the week in ACC play with two teams with four losses squaring off. Whoever wins will stay right in the thick of the title race and while the loser isn’t done by any means it will be an uphill climb down the stretch, as neither of these teams is likely to win out.
Tuesday: UNC at Wake (7 p.m., ESPN)
While Monday’s game features a pair of teams playing well right now, our first Tuesday game features a pair of more desperate teams. UNC went 0-2 last week and Wake went 1-1, and now they sit 7-5 and 7-6 in ACC play, respectively. Carolina won the first matchup against Wake in Chapel Hill, but now they’ll have to do it in Winston-Salem where the Deacs are far more dangerous.
Tuesday: NC State at UVa (9 p.m., ACCN)
Virginia needs to hold serve at home if the Hoos are going to finish strong and Tuesday’s game against the Wolfpack is the first of five remaining home games down the stretch. State has been playing well of late, winners of four straight, and has a chance to make a big statement with a win in Charlottesville.
Saturday: Clemson at UNC (2 p.m., ESPN2)
Clemson doesn’t have a game in the midweek but does have a big road trip on Saturday. The Tigers will look to end their two-game losing skid in a building where they’ve had very, very little success over the years. And regardless of whether UNC beats Wake or not, the Tar Heels could really use a win here as well.
Saturday: Duke at UVa (4 p.m., ESPN)
Finally, UVa hosts Duke on Saturday afternoon in another big clash of teams in the title race. Both will face stiff tests in the midweek, so the stakes of this game are TBD at this point, but regardless, whenever the Cavaliers and Blue Devils get together, there seems to be a lot on the line for at least one of the teams, often both.