As the calendar turns to February, UVa is officially in the stretch run. The Hoos have 10 games remaining as they look to close out league play strong, and make a run at the NCAA Tournament. Virginia was ranked early in the season and looked like a shoe-in for a Big Dance bid, but some rough losses on the road by lopsided margins crushed its metrics and a lack of opportunities to make up for them with big wins has put the Cavaliers on the outside looking in.
The consensus right now is that they are near the field of 68 but aren’t in yet, so they have work to do. With just 45 days til Selection Sunday, we’re taking a look at UVa’s current resume, and what they have on the horizon.
VIRGINIA’s RESUME
Record: 16-5, 7-3 ACC
NET: 47 (Before ND result)
KenPom: 58
Q1 Record: 1-3
Q2 Record: 3-1
Q3 Record: 4-1
Q4 Record: 8-0
UVa has won five in a row, which is great news. The Wahoos have gone from 2-3 in ACC play to 7-3 and currently sit in third place. Conference record doesn’t matter for the postseason, though, and unfortunately their two road wins have been against struggling teams and therefore won’t move the needle. Home wins over Virginia Tech, NC State, and Notre Dame are nice, but they don’t help a lot either. The best thing that has happened to UVa of late is a slight uptick in its metrics and hopefully some momentum for the stretch run.
Looking at the resume, what stands out is their lack of Quad-1 games and, therefore, wins. The non-conference schedule simply didn’t pan out the way they hoped. Texas A&M looked like a potential Quad 1 win but the Aggies have fallen off. The same is true of Memphis, which doesn’t help the optics of that lopsided loss. The lone Quad 1 win is a neutral site victory over Florida, and the losses were the setbacks against Wisconsin and on the road at Memphis and Wake Forest.
The worst loss, and the only really bad one, was the blowout at Notre Dame. That falls in the Quad 3 category and also tanked some of UVa’s efficiency metrics given how bad the Irish have been this year.
One positive, in a sense, is that most of UVa’s landmines in the schedule have come and gone. The Hoos have nothing but Quad 1 and 2 games until their season finale against Georgia Tech. But that also means that every game could be challenging, some more than others to be sure, and especially their five remaining road trips.
Another thing to keep mind is that it’s not just what UVa does, it’s what the teams around do, too. Virginia’s metrics can also improve if some of the teams the Hoos play keep winning. For example, that lone Quad 1 win over Florida needs to stay in the Quad-1, especially since they don’t have many more of those opportunities left. Right now, Florida is 41st in the NET. If they drop below 50, that win moves to Quad-2. That might not sound like a huge deal, but for the resume and remaining schedule, it is. Another team that could help UVa is NC State. The Wolfpack are 80th in the NET after their win over Miami. If they moved up to 75th, the loss in Raleigh moves from Q2 to Q1, and their home win over the Pack goes from Q3 to Q2. The Cavaliers can’t worry about what other teams do, though, and they have 10 games left to make their case by handling business.
So looking at the remaining 10 games, which ones are the most important for the Hoos, and which are must wins? Let’s take a look at the stretch run:
Clemson (Away)
METRICS: No. 34 NET, No. 34 KENPOM
OPPORTUNITY: Quad 1
The first February game is a big one. Clemson’s ACC record might not look all that impressive (4-5), but the Tigers reeled off a bunch of wins early in the season, and have good metrics. They’re one of three ACC teams in the projected NCAA Tournament field, at least as of now. Virginia has had a lot of success against Clemson over the years, including in its trips to Littlejohn Coliseum, but this, on paper, looks like UVa’s toughest game since the road trip to Wake. This isn’t necessarily a must-win but it would be a big one should the Hoos find a way to get the victory and would move the needle more than any game remaining outside of UNC and Duke.
Miami (Home)
METRICS: No. 67 NET, No. 67 KENPOM
OPPORTUNITY: Quad 2 or 3
The Canes were ranked in the preseason but they haven’t lived up to the hype, at least thus far. Still, they are a dangerous team with enough talent to go on a run in the back half of their schedule. The bad news for them is that their metrics aren’t great and they have a few bad losses, and simply haven’t been able to string wins together of late. Miami is off this weekend before the Monday trip to Charlottesville, which would be a big Quad-1 win for the Hurricanes. For the Hoos, this is one they want to have at home as they look to avoid adding more Quad-2 losses. There’s also a chance the Canes could fall to Quad-3, as they’re only eight spots above the cut line heading into the weekend; UVa cannot afford another Quad-3 loss.
Florida State (Away)
METRICS: No. 87 NET, No. 74 KENPOM
OPPORTUNITY: Quad 2
FSU is sort of the inverse of Clemson, where its metrics and overall record are bad, but the Noles have won a bunch of ACC games. They are 6-3 in league play heading into the weekend, but rank just No. 87 in the NET and with a 12-8 overall record aren’t really in the NCAA Tournament conversation yet. Tallahassee can be a tough place to play and the Seminoles have a young but talented roster. This could be a tricky spot for the Hoos, but its another game that can improve their resume, at least a little, if they are successful.
Pittsburgh (Home)
METRICS: No. 65 NET, No. 70 KENPOM
OPPORTUNITY: Quad 2 or 3
Right now, this is a Quad 2 game for UVa, but Pitt is close to Quad 3 with their current metrics. Pitt isn’t really playing for an at-large bid, at least for now, but the win at Duke and last night’s over Wake should raise some eyebrows and force quality teams to take them seriously, even at home. This is a game UVa needs to win, though, and is one of several home contests that look winnable, but are far from gimmes, and also don’t have the upside that a win over a top-tier team would have.
Wake Forest (Home)
METRICS: No. 44 NET, No. 39 KENPOM
OPPORTUNITY: Quad 2
Another revenge opportunity, as UVa was dusted by Wake Forest on the road, and for the third time, the Hoos will have a chance to take that team down in Charlottesville. Wake and UVa are in a similar spot at the moment, both in the top half of the league standings and with bubble-ish resumes. So this game takes even more importance, as it would be a win for the Hoos and a loss for a team they’re potentially competing with for a spot in the NCAA Tournament field. And if Wake sweeps UVa and the selection committee is looking at both schools, it would be tough for UVa to overcome that.
Virginia Tech (Away)
METRICS: No. 50 NET, No. 49 KENPOM
OPPORTUNITY: Quad 1
Cassell Coliseum has been a house of horrors for UVa of late, which hasn’t won at Tech since 2020. A victory in this year’s game there would be big for either team, but bigger for Virginia, as it would currently be a Quad-1 win. VT, like Wake, is competing with UVa for a spot in the NCAA Tournament field. While UVa has the better record and the head-to-head win, VT’s metrics are pretty much just as good, as the Hokies have played a more difficult schedule and have a very good neutral court win over Iowa State (No. 10 NET). This is one of four Quad-1 opportunities for UVa and while it might not mean as much to the humans reviewing the resumes, any Quad-1 win is a big boost for a team currently 1-3 in those games.
North Carolina (Home)
METRICS: No. 9 NET, No. 7 KENPOM
OPPORTUNITY: Quad 1
This is one of two opportunities remaining for UVa to get a win that looks good for the metrics but also a signature win that will matter to the humans on the committee. Carolina, despite the upset loss on Tuesday at Georgia Tech, has been easily the best team in the conference this year and has a good shot to win the the ACC regular-season title. This is a great opportunity for UVa too, given its dominance at home. Usually Quad 1 wins come away from home given the nature of the system but a win over UNC could alter how the season is perceived.
Boston College (Away)
METRICS: No. 89 NET, No. 86 KENPOM
OPPORTUNITY: Quad 2
UVa would go straight from a major opportunity game to a major trap game at BC. The Wahoos don’t have a lot of Quad-1 games, so ensuring they have a good Quad-2 record is important. So while they can survive a slip-up somewhere, they don’t want too many, especially down the stretch. Virginia was throttled by the Eagles in Chestnut Hill last year, and the Cavaliers will want to avoid a repeat performance this year as it could be quite costly.
Duke (Away)
METRICS: No. 18 NET, No. 12 KENPOM
OPPORTUNITY: Quad 1
This is UVa’s other major opportunity game. Duke and UNC represent the two best teams on the schedule (barring a major change) and are two lock NCAA Tournament teams. And while a win against UNC at home would be huge, a win at Cameron may end up being an even bigger one should the Hoos bring it back across state lines. This is what you would call a Quad-1-Plus opportunity, which certainly should be viewed differently than beating, say, Virginia Tech on the road.
Georgia Tech (Home)
METRICS: No. 128 NET, No. 130 KENPOM
OPPORTUNITY: Quad 3
After nine straight games that can all boost the resume, this one is pretty much all downside. And if the Hoos want to make the postseason, you’d hope they’d have done what they needed to by now to at least be in a good position to make the field. Simply put, they need to win this one, as losing to Georgia Tech at home would be borderline catastrophic to a team that already has a bad Quad-3 loss. This game could be meaningless for ACC Tournament seeding on the final day or could be the difference between a single and double bye, so maybe its a good thing that the Cavaliers end with this one.
