Where We Stand
As we head into the final weekend of the regular season, the ACC Tournament is starting to come into focus. Two teams have already sealed their fate with one game to go and many others are close to knowing where they’ll be slotted on the bracket next week.
Heading into the weekend, here are some things that we know, and things that could happen:
— FSU is closing in on its second-straight regular season title and No. 1 seed in Greensboro. The Seminoles clinch the title with a win at struggling Notre Dame on Saturday or if UVa loses to Louisville.
— The only other team that can finish first is Virginia. To do so the Wahoos will need help from Notre Dame and then they will need to take care of business themselves in the Derby City. It’s a longshot but UVa could still finish first as was predicted before the season began.
— We still don’t know if there will be a full 15-team field next week. Virginia Tech is dealing with contact tracing issues and COVID concerns are always lurking for any team at any time. So if the field shrinks, the things we know about what the bracket will look like are thrown out the window. More on that later.
— The Hokies are done and they have locked up a double-bye and either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed.
— The bottom of the bracket will shake out on Friday night, with Wake hosting Georgia Tech and Miami and BC battling for the basement.
— Syracuse is in the clubhouse at 9-7 and could end up on UVa’s side of the bracket as the 7-seed if…
— UNC loses to Duke. If that happens, the Blue Devils end up as the No. 9 seed and UNC finishes as the No. 8. So if there’s a 15-team field, they would square off again in the second round of the tournament with the winner to face the top seed.
Here are the standings and bracket as we head into the final weekend:
Virginia's Path
UVa is likely the No. 2 seed next week barring a stunner in South Bend. The Wahoos will get a double-bye and open play on Thursday. If they’re the 2nd seed, their tournament opener will tip off at 6:30 p.m. and they will face the winner of the game between the No. 7 seed and the winner of the 10/15 opening-round game. As for who their likely opponents could be, it’s too early to say. There will be a movement in the middle of the standings over the weekend and there are simply too many scenarios to really nail down who will be on UVa’s side of the bracket. But the most straightforward scenario is this: Because of tiebreakers, if UNC loses to Duke the Tar Heels drop below Syracuse and into the No. 8 seed. Syracuse would then be the No. 7 seed and NC State would be the No.10 seed.
If UNC sweeps the season series against Duke, the Tar Heels could end up as the No. 7 seed. Clemson and Georgia Tech are ahead of the Tar Heels in the standings and both have relatively easy games this weekend (GT at Wake, Clemson against Pitt). Assuming UNC wins but Clemson and Tech take care of business, the No. 7 seed would go to either UNC or Louisville, depending on what happens in the UVa/UL game. If UVa wins, Louisville would drop into the No. 7 seed, and if Louisville wins, UNC ends up there.
As you can see, we’re not quite in a place to project who ends up where.
ACC Tournament Seeding Scenarios
1. Florida State Seminoles (11-3)
This Weekend: at Notre Dame
Possible Seeds: No. 1 or No. 2
Scenarios:
— FSU will be the No. 1 seed with a win over ND OR a UVa loss vs Louisville
— FSU will be the No. 2 seed with a loss to ND AND a UVa win vs Louisville
2. Virginia Cavaliers (12-4)
This Weekend: at Louisville
Possible Seeds: No. 1 or No. 2
Scenarios:
— UVa will be the No. 1 seed with a win over Louisville AND a ND win over FSU
— UVa will be the No. 2 seed with a loss to Louisville OR an FSU win over ND
3. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-4)
This Weekend: Idle
Possible Seeds: No. 3 or No. 4
Scenarios:
— VT will be the No. 3 seed if Louisville beats Virginia
— VT will be the No. 4 seed if Virginia beats Louisville
4. Louisville Cardinals (8-4)
This Weekend: against Virginia
Possible Seeds: No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6 or No. 7
Scenarios:
— UL will be the No. 3 seed with a win vs Virginia
— UL will be the No. 4 seed with a loss to UVa AND IF GT, Clemson and UNC all lose
— UL will be the No. 5 seed with a loss to UVa AND IF one of GT, Clemson and UNC win, and the other two lose (any combination)
— UL will be the No. 6 seed with a loss to UVa AND IF two of GT, Clemson and UNC win, and the other loses (any combination)
— UL will be the No. 7 seed with a loss to UVa AND IF GT, Clemson and UNC all win
5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-6)
This Weekend: at Wake Forest
Possible Seeds: No. 4, No. 5, No. 6 or No. 7
Scenarios:
— GT will be the No. 4 seed with a win vs Wake AND a Virginia win vs Louisville
— GT will be the No. 5 seed with a win vs Wake AND a Louisville win vs Virginia OR a loss vs Wake AND IF Clemson and UNC lose
— GT will be the No. 6 seed with a loss vs Wake AND IF two of Louisville, Clemson and UNC win, and the other loses (any combination)
— GT will be the No. 7 seed with a loss vs Wake AND IF Louisville, Clemson and UNC all win
6. Clemson Tigers (9-6)
This Weekend: vs Pittsburgh
Possible Seeds: No. 4, No. 5, No. 6 or No. 7
Scenarios:
— Clemson will be the No. 4 seed with a win vs Pitt AND IF Louisville and GT both lose
— Clemson will be the No. 5 seed with a win vs Pitt AND IF one of Louisville or GT lose
— Clemson will be the No. 6 seed with a win vs Pitt AND IF Louisville and GT both win, OR with a loss vs Pitt AND a UNC win vs Duke
— Clemson will be the No. 7 seed with a loss vs Pitt AND a UNC win vs Duke
7. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-6)
This Weekend: vs Duke
Possible Seeds: No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 7 or No. 8
Scenarios:
— UNC will be the No. 4 seed with a win vs Duke AND IF Louisville, GT and Clemson all lose
— UNC will be the No. 5 seed with a win vs Duke AND IF two of Louisville, GT and Clemson lose, and the other wins
— UNC will be the No. 6 seed with a win vs Duke AND IF two of Louisville, GT and Clemson win and the other loses
— UNC will be the No. 7 seed with a win vs Duke AND IF Louisville, GT and Clemson all win
— UNC will be the No. 8 seed with a loss vs Duke
8. Syracuse Orange (9-7)
This Weekend: Idle
Possible Seeds: No. 7 or No. 8
Scenarios:
—Syracuse will be the No. 7 seed with a Duke win over UNC
— Syracuse will be the No. 8 seed with a UNC win over Duke
9. Duke Blue Devils (9-8)
This Weekend: at North Carolina
Possible Seeds: No. 9 or No. 10
Scenarios:
— Duke will be the No. 9 seed with a win vs UNC
— Duke will be the No. 10 seed with a loss vs UNC
10. NC State Wolfpack (9-8)
This Weekend: Idle
Possible Seeds: No. 9 or No. 10
Scenarios:
— NC State will be the No. 9 seed with a Duke loss vs UNC
— NC State will be the No. 10 seed with a Duke win vs UNC
11. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-9)
This Weekend: at Clemson
Seed: No. 11 or No. 12
Scenarios:
— Pitt will be the No. 11 seed with a win vs Clemson OR a ND loss to FSU
— Pitt will be the No. 12 seed with a loss vs Clemson AND a ND win vs FSU
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-11)
This Weekend: Florida State
Seed: No. 11 or No. 12
Scenarios:
— ND will be the No. 11 seed with a win vs FSU AND a Pitt loss to Clemson
— ND will be the No. 12 seed with a loss vs FSU OR a Pitt win vs Clemson
13. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-14)
This Weekend: Georgia Tech
Possible Seeds: No. 13 or No. 14
Scenarios:
— Wake will be the No. 13 seed with a win vs GT AND a Miami win vs BC
— Wake will be the No. 14 seed with a loss to GT OR a BC win vs Miami
14. Boston College Eagles (2-10)
This Weekend: at Miami
Possible Seeds: No. 13 or No. 15
Scenarios:
— BC will be the No. 13 seed with a win vs Miami
— BC will be the No. 15 seed with a loss vs Miami
15. Miami Hurricanes (3-15)
This Weekend: Boston College
Possible Seeds: No. 13, No. 14, or No. 15
Scenarios:
— Miami will be theNo. 13 seed with a win vs BC AND a Wake loss to GT*
— Miami will be the No. 14 seed with a win vs BC AND a Wake win vs GT
— Miami will be the No. 15 seed with a loss to BC
The Chalk Bracket
Using KenPom’s game predictions for this weekend, this is what the standings would look like if all the favorites win over the weekend (using win percentage):
1. Florida State (12-3)
2. Virginia (13-4)
3. Virginia Tech (9-4)
4. Georgia Tech (11-6)
————————
5. Clemson (10-6)
6. North Carolina (10-6)
7. Louisville (8-5)
8. Syracuse (9-7)
9. NC State (9-8)
————————
10. Duke (9-9)
11. Pittsburgh (6-10)
12. Notre Dame (6-12)
13. Miami (4-15)
14. Wake Forest (3-15)
15. Boston College (2-11)
A 14-team Bracket?
With just a few days until the tournament starts in Greensboro, Virginia Tech is currently on a COVID pause. Based on what we’ve seen throughout the season, it’s fair to say that its status for next week’s competition is up in the air.
Luckily for the ACC, the league has experience with brackets that didn’t feature the complete 15-team league: In the six conference tournaments since 2015, only half of them have featured all 15 teams as Louisville, Syracuse and Georgia Tech all sat out a year as they dealt with NCAA penalties.
If VT can’t make the trip to Greensboro, or any other team for that matter, the league simply moves everyone up a seed line.
Yes, this will change the bracket, but Virginia’s place as the No. 1 or No. 2 seed would be unchanged, as the Hoos are ahead of the Hokies in the standings.
The biggest beneficiaries of a 14-team bracket would be the 5-seed, which moves up to the 4-seed and gets a double-bye rather than a single bye, and the 10-seed, which then become the 9-seed and avoid the first day of the tournament.
With a 14-team field, there would be two games on the first day of the tournament (No. 11 vs No. 14 and No. 12 vs No. 13) rather than three (No.10 vs No.15, No. 11 vs No.14 and No. 12 vs No. 13).
If the tournament contracted to 13 teams, or 12, the same process would unfold. If the tournament gets down to 12 teams or fewer for whatever reason, there is no longer a need for the first day of the competition and the tournament would start on Wednesday with the first round, as it used to before the league expanded from 12 teams to 14 and then to 15.
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