With Selection Sunday in the rear view, we know what UVa faces as the No. 1 seed in the South Region. Starting Friday afternoon against No. 16-seeded Gardner-Webb, the Wahoos will be looking to run the gauntlet against arguably one of the better draws they've had in recent years.
While we'll focus on G-W and the potential matchup thereafter later this week, we begin our NCAA Tournament scene setting today with this look at the main competition, the teams who could cause potential upsets, and three players to watch as play in the South Region unfolds.
The Competition
No. 2 Tennessee (29-5, KenPom No. 8)
UVa drew the Vols as the No. 2 seed in the South after they lost their shot at a top seed in Sunday's upset loss to Auburn in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee has been at or near the top of the polls and metrics all season long, and is certainly capable of cutting down the nets in Minneapolis next month. The Vols have lost just five games this year, all to tournament teams (Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, and Auburn twice) seeded fifth or higher. Rick Barnes’ squad ranks third nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and is a veteran-heavy team that can score in any number of ways. Forwards Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield draw a lot of the headlines but the backcourt of Jordan Bone and Lamonte Turner is one of the best in the nation. The Vols open Friday against Colgate and, assuming they win that one, would take on either Cincinnati or Iowa in the second round. Virginia fans were anxious about Kentucky potentially being the No. 2 seed in the South with the Wildcats thereby getting de facto home games in Louisville should they make it through the first weekend. That issue remains with Tennessee and its fans who would surely travel to the Derby City in large numbers.
No. 3 Purdue (23-9, KenPom No. 10)
Purdue, which shared the Big 10 regular-season title with Michigan State, wasn’t able to translate that success over to the conference tournament, as the Boilermakers were upset by Minnesota in their quarterfinal. Like Tennessee, the metrics love Purdue, which ranks fifth nationally in offensive efficiency and 32nd in defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers take care of the basketball and do a great job on the offensive glass. Purdue always seems to have a big, imposing frontcourt and that is true this year, with 7-foot-2 center Matt Haarms defending the paint. Interestingly, UVa and Purdue have several common opponents this season, with the Hoos playing two Big 10 teams and Purdue playing a trio of ACC squads. UVa handled Maryland and Wisconsin away from home while the Boilermakers beat Wisconsin in overtime and split with the Terps, losing in College Park. Purdue went 0-3 against ACC competition, though, losing games to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech on neutral floors as well as one to Florida State on the road. Purdue opens with Old Dominion on Thursday in Hartford.
No. 6 Villanova (25-9, KenPom No. 26)
No disrespect to No. 4-seeded Kansas State or No. 5-seeded Wisconsin, which are certainly contenders in the region, but it’s impossible to dismiss the fact that the defending national champions are in the South. The Wildcats, who ended up slotted a seed or two off what most expected heading into the bracket reveal, took advantage of Marquette’s late-season swoon and won the Big East regular-season title despite losing four of their final six games and then the tournament as well. Villanova has flown under the radar a bit this year, in large part because the Big East was down this season but the Wildcats do have Phil Booth and Eric Paschall, guys know how to win in March. Like last season, Villanova shoots a lot of 3s, actually attempting more of them than two-pointers. But their percentages have dropped off from last year, with the Cats shooting 35.1 percent from beyond the arc after hitting better than 40 percent from deep last season. The Wildcats play Saint Mary’s on Thursday and should they win that one could end up with a very intriguing second-round game against Purdue on Saturday.
Cinderella Potential
No. 7 Cincinnati (28-6, KenPom No. 32)
One might not think of a 7 as a "sleeper team" but Cincinnati seems to be flying under the radar in this particular bracket. The selection committee didn’t seem to give the Bearcats a bump after they upset top-seeded Houston in the AAC title game on Sunday, avenging a pair of regular season losses to the Cougars. Cincy lost six regular-season games and only one qualifies as a bad loss (East Carolina). The metrics don’t like the Bearcats as much as the three teams we mentioned above but they just showed over the weekend that they are capable of winning back-to-back games in a tournament format and it’s a program that has a lot of NCAA Tournament experience in recent years. If they can survive Iowa in the first round, the Bearcats would get their shot to play spoiler when they’d likely square off with Tennessee.
No. 12 Oregon (23-12, KenPom No. 43)
Like Cincinnati, Oregon is an unconventional sleeper team, in this case because the Ducks come from a power conference. They went on an unexpected run to the Pac-12 tournament title as the league’s sixth seed, winning four games in four days punctuated by a win over top-seeded Washington. Oregon has won its last eight games going back to the regular season and could be a very dangerous matchup for Wisconsin. The Ducks are without freshman phenom Bol Bol, who is out for the season after playing in just nine games. That injury changed the trajectory of their season but they still have talented players, including former five-star recruit Louis King and junior guard Peyton Pritchard, both of whom are capable of impressive performances and potentially leading Oregon to wins in the Big Dance.
No. 13 UC Irvine (30-5, KenPom No. 75)
The Anteaters are the champions of the Big West Conference, rolling through that league with just one loss in 19 games. KenPom has Irvine ranked higher than at-larges Temple and St. John’s as well as 17 other auto-bid teams. The Anteaters haven’t lost a game since January 16th and remain one of the hottest teams in the field. UC Irvine has a veteran-heavy roster with a starting five that features a pair of seniors and two juniors. A solid defensive team, the Anteaters rank first nationally in two-point field-goal defense. They are an intriguing underdog pick in the first round against Kansas State, which may be without its best player Dean Wade after he missed the Big 12 Tournament with a foot injury. Though we aren’t predicting that it will happen, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see a second-round game between Oregon and UC Irvine in San Jose this weekend.
