Commonwealth Cup: Year 3 of the Elliott Era all comes down to this

UVa wraps up their 2024 regular season tonight, taking on rival Virginia Tech at Lane Stadium (8pm, ACCN). Virginia enters with a 5-6 record, 3-4 in ACC play, looking to not only beat their rival, but also clinch bowl eligibility and a .500-or-better record for the first time in the Tony Elliott era.

Elliott talked this week about how this isn’t a typical game, because of the opponent and thus, the raised stakes. Virginia hasn’t beaten the Hokies since the 2019 win in Charlottesville; Tech has taken the three meetings since, with no game played in 2022. Virginia hasn’t beaten Tech on the road since 1998.

On top of all the pressure of the rivalry game and postseason aspirations, UVa could also really use a good performance regardless. Virginia had another rough offensive showing last week against SMU, scoring seven points. UVa scored 14 points the week prior at Notre Dame, and none in the first half; UVa’s road win at Pitt was impressive, but the Hoos lost the three games before that one, including an embarrassing 41-14 home loss to rival UNC.

Now, they head to Blacksburg, with an opportunity to make things right.

If the Hoos are going to right the ship and salvage the season, they’ll have to do it in unfriendly territory, where so many bad things have happened over the years.

The last time UVa beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Elliott, who just had his 45th birthday on Tuesday, was a teenager. None of Virginia’s players were born then, either. In fact, only five current Virginia players have even played in Lane Stadium, and none of them have played there with fans in the stands, as the 2020 game was restricted to a a scattering of family members, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

There have been games between the Hoos and the Hokies with higher stakes, and more on the line. In 2007, 2011 and 2019, the programs played for a winner-take-all spot in the ACC title game, for instance. But for these iterations of both programs, with their respective coaches, both in their third year, this game has massive importance.

For Virginia Tech, Brent Pry had a rough first year, but led the Hokies to a strong finish in 2023, which included an obliteration of UVa en route to a bowl win over Tulane. Taking that momentum into the offseason, expectations were pretty high for the Hokies this fall, but Pry and his team haven’t delivered. Tech, like UVa limps into Saturday’s game with a 5-6 record, and for the second year in a row, needing a win over the Hoos to get to the postseason, something that used to be a given for their program.

And for UVa, fans are desperate to see significant signs of progress that, at this point, only a win in this game can deliver. If Virginia had achieved bowl eligibility before heading to Blacksburg, a loss Saturday could be seen as a bit of a split decision on how much progress there was this season. Now, UVa has several season goals packed into the results of this game.

Virginia did increase their win total from three in each of the previous two years to five this season. But with a lot of those wins frontloaded, only two of them coming at home, and the ineptitude of the offense down the stretch, it doesn’t feel like the fanbase is willing to accept a 5-7 season with a loss to Tech as true progress. That doesn’t mean Elliott’s job is in danger, but the program faces the harsh reality, that a fanbase that already seems apathetic and checked out could be even more so next fall, in what should be a make-or-break season for UVa’s head coach.

Because of the stakes, UVa can’t afford to leave anything on the table. The offensive staff has called a bunch of trick plays this year, we’d expect to see more of that in this game. Any wrinkles they have still left to use, now’s the time to burn them. But this game will also be won on the fundamentals. Can UVa get better blocking and quarterback play, especially against a good Tech pass rush? Can Virginia’s defense bother the Hokies’ QB, whoever ends up taking the snaps? Can the Hoos avoid a massive special teams error? All of the things that typically decide a game.

For UVa, it all comes down to three hours tonight, in Blacksburg. It’s just one game in a 12-game season, but the result will stay with this program and the coaching staff, into the long offseason to come.

Tonight, we’ll see how far this program has come this season, and we’ll get a good idea of where things are headed from here. It all comes down to this.