Deep Dive: Breaking down UVa's offensive woes and inefficiency

Virginia’s offense has had its fair share of struggles in recent weeks and those issues are a big reason the Cavaliers have lost three of their past four games. In losses to Notre Dame, Miami, and Louisville, different issues on that side of the ball have caused problems for the Wahoos, and set up a must-win game at North Carolina this Saturday.

As different reasons have been thrown out for Virginia’s offensive woes, be it from fans, commentators, or even Bronco Mendenhall, we took a deeper look at how the Cavaliers have performed on offense, looking closer at their turnovers, scoring drives, and (lack) of explosive plays.

In doing so, we compared the Cavaliers to their three most recent opponents, Miami, Duke and Louisville, as well as their upcoming opponent (UNC) to provide some context to where the Cavaliers stand on offense heading into their ninth game.

Mendenhall made the point in his Monday press conference that turnovers are the biggest element holding back the offense. And on the surface, he’s correct: In Virginia’s three losses, they are -7 in turnover margin (with one turnover created and eight lost). UVa has lost 16 turnovers on the season, while forcing 10, so even in wins the offense has given the ball away. The Cavaliers were -3 in against an overmatched William & Mary team and lost a pair of turnovers to Florida State without creating one of their own. Despite losing two possessions to turnovers, including an early red-zone trip, the offense still managed 31 points in what was likely the best offensive performance of the season. Virginia also turned it over on promising drives against both Miami and Louisville, with both of those mistakes proving costly. In losses, the Hoos are scoring just 16.7 points per game and in wins 37.8 points per contest.

The idea that turning the ball over hurts team’s ability to win games is Football 101. It’s also true in nearly every other team sport. But the offensive problems don’t seem as straightforward as Mendenhall made it seem. And perhaps more importantly, UVa’s head whistle may be underestimating a critical aspect when it comes to evaluating the overall performance of his offense: While Bryce Perkins’ critical second-quarter pick kept Virginia from extending its lead and the fumble by Joe Reed in the third quarter allowed Louisville to pull ahead for the first time, those two plays didn’t have to be the difference…if the offense had been more efficient.

While Louisville is no doubt improving as a football team, its defense is still not an elite group. Bill Connelly of ESPN has the Cardinals 86th among FBS teams on defense in his SP+ Rankings. Even after stifling UVa, they are allowing 31.9 points per game, 4.69 yards per rush, 5.97 yards per play, and 259 yards passing per contest. In their games leading up to last weekend, the Cards allowed 35 points to FSU, 39 to Boston College, 59 to Wake Forest, and 45 to Clemson. The only FBS team besides Virginia to score 21 points (the fewest they’ve allowed) against Louisville was Western Kentucky, which has the 118th best offense in the nation per SP+. And Louisville isn’t a turnover machine on defense either, forcing 12 takeaways in eight games, which is decent but not elite. The weather wasn’t perfect, but Louisville didn’t turn the ball over, having already given up 12 turnovers in the first seven games this year.

So, yes, Virginia turning the football over is certainly costly. And not creating more turnovers on defense means fewer opportunities for a struggling offense…but only because the offense doesn’t create enough scoring organically to make up for any mistakes they make and relies on taking advantage of their excellent defense and special teams.

Which takes us to our next point, the help that the offense has already received…

The Cavaliers average 29.9 points per game, which, on the surface, isn’t terrible. That average is 61st best among the 130 FBS teams, so middle of the pack. But the Cavaliers rank 108th in yards per game, with 345.3 yards on average. That’s the second-worst production among ACC teams, with rebuilding Georgia Tech the only conference foe below the Hoos (314.6 YPG). The only FBS team UVa has played that averages fewer yards per game is Old Dominion, which is last nationally at 237.8 yards per contest. In terms of yards per play, UVa is 104th with an average of 5.07. So how is Virginia mediocre in scoring while being terrible at moving the football?

The answer is that the offense has received quite a bit of help from the defense and special teams. Between the two phases, there have been four non-offensive touchdowns on the season. A pair of interception returns (Nick Grant vs W&M and Zane Zandier vs ODU) and two Reed kick return scores (William & Mary and Duke). The Zandier interception was the most critical of the four, with UVa’s offense struggling and trailing the hapless Monarchs before that turnover changed momentum and gave the Hoos seven critical points in an 11-point win. The special teams have been a big help as well: Virginia leads the nation in average yards per kick return with 32.9, which greatly impacts starting field position. The Cavaliers are best nationally in 50+ yard returns with four and 70+ yard returns with three.

Of the team’s studied, Virginia’s 29.9 points per game is ahead of Miami (26.8) and North Carolina (27.5) but neither of those teams has benefited from a single defensive or special teams touchdown this year. Duke scores just a bit less than UVa (29.5 points per game) but has just one special teams score outside of offensive production. Louisville outscores all of those teams with 32.8 points per game and has two non-offensive scores this year.

Virginia deserves credit for taking advantage of short fields but the offense has benefited from them more than many other teams, including the other four that we reviewed. Virginia has 29 total touchdowns this year, so 25 on offense after the four aforementioned scores on returns. Of those 25 drives, nine have started in enemy territory, meaning they required fewer than 50 yards. So that means 36 percent of UVa’s scoring drives have come on short fields this year. And just one of those short fields came against FCS opponent William & Mary, whereas many other teams are given shorter fields off more frequent turnovers against lesser competition. For example, Miami has scored 28 touchdowns this year, with nine coming on short fields. But if you remove the game against Bethune-Cookman, Miami has had just four short fields on 19 scores against FBS competition.

Of the five teams we reviewed, the 36 percent of touchdown drives coming on short fields was the highest average. Only three of UNC’s 26 offensive TD drives started in enemy territory, or 11.5 percent. The Tar Heels’ average touchdown drive covers 72 yards, while the Cavaliers’ average 54 yards per touchdown. Louisville’s numbers are similar, with 67 yards per drive on its 32 offensive touchdowns. Only five of the UL’s drives started in plus territory, with one being the Reed fumble on Saturday that turned into a quick 34-yard trip to the end zone. Miami and Duke had numbers closer to Virginia’s, as both have taken advantage of turnovers in plus territory throughout the season. But UVa has the shortest average touchdown drive of the group and more defensive and special teams scores than the other four teams combined. While the Wahoos have created just 10 turnovers on defense, nine of them have either been returned for touchdowns or set Virginia up in opponent territory, with the interception by Joey Blount at Pitt being the lone exception, and that play gave the Hoos the ball at their own 47.

Virginia simply doesn’t create many big plays, which is probably a bigger problem than the turnover margin or anything else. For the sake of this piece, we are labeling passes of 15+ yards and runs of 10+ yards as “chunk” or “explosive” plays, which is something of an industry standard. Of UVa’s 25 offensive touchdowns, six have come on explosive plays, two on the ground and four through the air. Three of the six “big play” touchdowns came against W&M and ODU, including Virginia’s longest touchdown from scrimmage this year, a 40-yard strike to Reed against the Tribe. Virginia has just two offensive touchdowns from outside the red zone; that 40-yard score and another Reed TD from 25 yards out against ODU. Virginia’s longest scrimmage touchdown in an ACC game is Wayne Taulapapa’s 19-yard score at Louisville last weekend. For context, three of Louisville’s touchdowns on Saturday against Virginia came on explosive plays, two of which came from outside the red zone.

And not surprisingly, UVa is far less explosive than the other teams we studied. Half of Carolina’s 26 offensive touchdowns came on explosive plays and many of them came on “super” explosive plays. Virginia’s longest touchdown on offense is 40 yards; UNC has five touchdowns longer than that without having played an FCS opponent. Virginia’s longest scoring drive of the season came against Duke (78 yards). UNC has nine touchdown drives of 80 yards or longer. Eight of Virginia’s scoring drives have included penalty yards on mistakes by the opposing defense, six of those included 15 yards of penalties or more. Virginia has just one drive this season when it overcame negative penalty yards on a drive to score and that was just a five-yard penalty on a 29-yard scoring drive. UNC is more mistake prone, with just four drives featuring positive penalty yardage margins on its 26 TD drives. But Carolina also does a better job overcoming the mistakes made, scoring on six drives where the Heels lost penalty yards on the drive overall, including four with 10 negative yards. They make up for those mistakes with explosive plays. Virginia does not.

It’s tougher to hit long plays when a team has a bad offensive line. Virginia’s struggles up front throughout the season have been well documented. But Miami’s offensive line has performed worse than Virginia’s, allowing 33 sacks, fourth from the bottom nationally. And the Hurricanes still hit more big plays despite trouble blocking and quarterback shuffling. The Hurricanes have 11 big-play touchdowns on 28 offensive scores, including three 50+ yard scores. But Miami recruits elite athletes, so that must be it, right? Well Duke, not exactly loaded with blue chippers, is more explosive than Virginia, too. Fourteen of Duke’s 29 touchdowns have come on big plays, with 11 coming from outside the red zone.

Obviously, touchdowns aren’t the only big plays an offense can hit. But Virginia’s numbers on chunk plays from scrimmage are downright embarrassing in context. UVa has 108 plays of 10+ yards, which is 77th nationally. That might not qualify as embarrassing, but things are about to get far worse: The team’s 26 plays of 20+ yards ranks 117th nationally. That puts them below offensive juggernauts like Georgia Tech and UConn. Nine teams in the nation have three or fewer plays of 40+ yards, and Virginia is one of them. Only Mississippi State and the often gold standard for bad offense paired with good defense, Northwestern, have less. Five teams this season haven’t had a play from scrimmage go for 50 yards. You guessed it, Virginia is one of them. That’s four fewer 50 yard plays than Rutgers has had this year. Yes, Rutgers. UVa’s offense is less explosive than Rutgers. That’s just the facts.

So what has changed from last year? The offensive line hasn’t blocked as well, starting with the most obvious. And Virginia’s offense simply hasn’t been nearly as effective at creating big plays, including big play TDs. UVa scored 45 touchdowns on offense last year, 26 on explosive plays. The Wahoos haven’t had a touchdown longer than 40 yards this year but had seven last season, including three in one game (against Ohio). The average touchdown drive for the Cavaliers last year was 61 yards, so a bit longer than this year’s average.

The lack of a running game has been a big detriment this season. Many of UVa’s explosive plays were runs 10+ yard runs from Perkins or Jordan Ellis, and those just haven’t been there this season. Perkins had 36 runs of 10+ yards last year with just 15 this year through two-thirds of the season. As a junior, he rushed 125 times for 6.1 yards per attempt, and this year, just 57 attempts at 5.1 yards per. He is still rushing for touchdowns but all of them have come around the goal line.

His passing numbers have taken a hit as well and the loss of Olamide Zacchaeus is certainly a factor. In 2018, Perkins threw 39 passes of 20 yards or more, completing 14 of them for nine touchdowns and just one interception. This season, Perkins is throwing deep more often but is just 10 of 37 with three touchdowns and an interception. So while UVa is throwing deep more often, the Hoos aren’t cashing in on those throws like they did last year or like other teams have done this season. Louisville, between its two quarterbacks, has thrown 37 throws of 20+ yards, just like Perkins. And the Cardinals QBs have completed 15 of them, for more than double UVa’s yards on long throws (687), and six touchdowns with three interceptions. UNC’s Sam Howell, for example, has thrown deep way more often this season, completing 21 of 59 attempts for 753 yards with eight touchdowns and one pick. Those plays are making UNC’s offense go and don’t require a long, precise drive like Virginia often is forced to have.

UVa wasn’t great at hitting explosive plays last year but did have four 70+ yard plays on the season. Whether its injury, blocking, or something else, the offense just isn’t getting 2018 Perkins right now.

Mendenhall’s comments about turnovers made me curious as to whether that was the root cause of the offense’s problems or not. And quite frankly, I wasn’t buying it as the main culprit. And from what we found, turning the ball over is obviously costly, but is even more costly for this team because their offense hasn’t been capable of creating explosive plays. In a quick check of Mendenhall and Robert Anae’s final BYU team in 2015, it doesn’t appear that they had the same problems creating explosive plays, or scoring points in general. The Cougars ranked 13th nationally in 30+ yard plays that year with 13, and had eight plays of 50 yards or more. The lack of explosiveness makes everything else more difficult. It would be like a basketball team having a mediocre to bad half-court offense while at the same time not scoring any points in transition. It’s untenable.

And quite frankly, based on the amount of short fields the offense has had, and the fact that Virginia’s special teams have gone from bad/mediocre to elite this year, the offense has received plenty of help, though it hasn’t been enough to get them over the hump. In Virginia’s worst offensive showings (ODU, Miami, and Louisville), the opponent didn’t give the Cavaliers great field position to cash in. Old Dominion allowed a pick-6 and eventually turned it over on downs in their own territory, which proved costly. But when the Cavaliers were forced to drive the field, they weren’t able to. Virginia moved the ball against Miami but the Hurricanes played bend-but-don’t-break defense, and held the Hoos to field goals. Louisville gave up three scoring drives but held UVa off the scoreboard entirely for 40 minutes of the game. Perkins touchdown pass to Tavares Kelly broke that streak in the final minute, after a 15 play scoring drive. That possession, the longest touchdown drive of the season for the Hoos in terms of plays run, ironically came at a time when the Cavaliers needed to go quick and run as few plays as possible. Or maybe it’s not ironic at all. That touchdown pass was also Perkins’ first in more than 210 minutes of game time, which is mind boggling in itself, and emblematic of a bigger problem overall.

So what is wrong with this offense? Perhaps it is the blocking, which seems to have taken a step back from what we saw in 2018. Is it Perkins, and if so, why? He hasn’t had the same burst when running the ball this season, even after the brace has come off. And his turnover numbers are up while his touchdown passing numbers are down. Is it the design of the offense? There’s a great case to be made. Virginia’s passing offense features a ton of short throws. In fact, 56 percent of throws are shorter than 10 yards, and 11 percent are thrown behind the line of scrimmage. That last number is astounding considering how little the running backs are involved in the passing game, and the total lack of screen passes. And on many deep throws, the play is contested and Hasise Dubois and Reed simply make outstanding plays that score points or extend drives. Rarely is a receiver thrown open in space with room to run. As a team, UVa averages 4.2 yards after the catch per reception. UNC averages 6.1, Miami 6.3, and Louisville 8.8. And since nearly all of Virginia’s throws are short, they average far fewer yards per catch (10.5) than UNC (13.4), Miami (12.4) or Louisville (16.8).

All three of those teams I just mentioned are in their first year under a new head coach and offensive coordinator. All three had different struggles last season on that side of the ball, and had to deal with roster turnover, while Virginia lost players to graduation, but kept the scheme and the quarterback who was expected to take a leap forward but simply hasn’t. All of those programs started over and all three score more often on offense, with worse field position, and with more explosive plays. The same goes for Duke, a team with a new quarterback and far less talent than those other examples.

So while Virginia has lots of reasons that their offense has struggled, and questions that need to be answered, the excuses are wearing thin, and chances to salvage a pivotal season for the program are running out.

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