On Tuesday, Tony Elliott’s presser was pretty standard, so we decided to do something a little different today instead of the typical 3-2-1.
Before the season on our podcast, we mentioned how UVa performed in a number of key metrics last year, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. That was meant to show how far away from mediocre the offense was a year ago and how much room there was for improvement in Year 2 for this staff. The defense has similar metrics, and last year, they performed well in many of those areas, helping UVa stay in a lot of games despite struggling to score.
The offense and defense haven’t quite flipped roles this year, but while the offense has taken a small step forward, the defense has taken a big leap back, and the result is an 0-5 record heading into this weekend’s game against William &Mary.
So today, we’re taking a look at how UVa is performing in some key areas on both sides of the ball through five games, compared to how the Hoos did last season, to determine where the program may be improving and where they’re regressing.
Offense
3rd Down Conversions
2022: 32.1%, 117th nationally
2023: 34.3%, 108th nationally
Not much change here. UVa was quite good on 3rd down in the loss at Maryland, converting seven of 13 attempts (53.9%). In every other game, the Cavaliers converted less than 36% of their tries, and they were under 30% in two of them (Tennessee and BC). They have struggled in short-yardage situations, mostly from an execution standpoint. The offensive line doesn’t seem to get much of a push in 3rd and 1, and it feels like those situations often result in 4th and short.
Verdict: No Change
Red Zone Scoring
2022: 72.7%, 122nd nationally
2023: 86.7%, 54th nationally
Red Zone TD %
2022: 48.5%, 118th nationally
2023: 66.7%, 44th nationally
We’ll tackle both red zone categories together. Last year, UVa really struggled to finish drives with touchdowns, and it probably cost the Wahoos a game or two. And it seems like the staff has fixed something here, whether it be better play calls, better execution, or better personnel fits for these situations. Regardless, we’ll give them credit for moving the red-zone efficiency from terrible to pretty good from 2022 to 2023. They have 10 red zone touchdowns on 15 tries, settling for three short field goals, and coming up empty twice (Anthony Colandrea’s end-zone INT at Maryland and Will Bettridge’s field-goal miss against Tennessee).
But here’s the reason that improvement hasn’t translated to big-time offensive improvement: UVa doesn’t get to the red zone enough. Once they’ve gotten there, the Cavaliers have done a nice job getting points. Their 15 red-zone trips, or three per game, ranks 96th nationally though. They had the same problem last year, getting 33 red zone trips from 10 games, just over three per contest.
Verdict: Significant Improvement
Plays of 20+ Yards
2022: 33, 129th nationally
2023: 18, 99th nationally
The offense wasn’t explosive at all last fall, with just over three 20+ yard plays for game. This year, UVa is closer to four per game but still has room to improve. The run game has provided virtually no chunk plays, so if the Hoos are going to get them, it’s coming through the air. Malik Washington and Malachi Fields are doing virtually all of the heavy lifting, and if the offense could find a third (or fourth) playmaker, that would be a big boost.
Verdict: Slight Improvement
Sacks Allowed
2022: 3.4 per game, 121st nationally
2023: 3.4 per game, 119th nationally
This one is pretty easy to evaluate, the numbers are exactly the same. Virginia is allowing its quarterbacks to get hit a lot, and something has to be done to help curtail the negative plays. In the second half of the BC game, the offense completely fell apart as the line was unable to handle the rush. There is one interesting trend here, however. Tony Muskett and Colandrea have been sacked nearly the same amount of times (eight and nine times respectively), but Colandrea has nearly double the amount of drop-back opportunities. Perhaps the freshman is a little better at evading the rush, or maybe UVa’s game plan with Muskett kept him in the pocket more? We’ll see if that trend continues this week with Muskett expected to start again.
Verdict: No Change
Turnovers Allowed
2022: 2.2 per game, 125th nationally
2023: 0.8 per game, 83rd nationally
Virginia’s offense has taken better care of the ball this year, which is a good thing, and the credit mostly goes to the quarterbacks. Last year, Brennan Armstrong accounted for a lot of the turnovers, and his successors have taken better care of the football. There is another Muskett vs Colandrea trend here, too, with the freshman quarterback much more turnover prone. In Muskett’s two starts, UVa has one total turnover, an INt last week at BC. Seven of UVa’s turnovers came in Colandrea’s three starts, which was quite costly considering how close all three games were going into the fourth quarter. Still, it’s fair to say that Armstrong was the biggest factor in last year’s turnover rate, and UVa’s numbers are more in line with the rest of the nation now.
Verdict: Some Improvement
Defense
3rd Down Conversions Allowed
2022: 36.6%, 52nd nationally
2023: 42%, 91st nationally
Virginia’s 3rd-down defense hasn’t fallen off a cliff completely, but it hasn’t been as good either. A few more conversions per game can be pivotal, especially in close games. We didn’t look at average distance on 3rd-down attempts for opponents, but the lack of negative plays forced (more on that soon) has to be a factor in the 3rd- down distance faced. Virginia’s tackling has been a big culprit for the drop-off here, too.
Verdict: Some Regression
Red Zone Scores Allowed:
2022: 88.2%, 102nd nationally
2023: 95.2%, 124th nationally
Red Zone TD % Allowed:
2022: 44.1%, 7th nationally
2023: 85.7%, 132nd nationally
We can skip over red zone scores allowed, because a bit of that has to do with game scenarios and how good the opposing kickers are. But wow, the red zone touchdown percentage allowed is a jarring indicator of a major regression. UVa has already allowed more red-zone touchdowns this year (18) than all of last year (15). All five opponents have found success in the red zone when they needed it: 18 of the 21 red zone trips defended reached the end zone, with two field goals allowed. The only truly empty possession was JMU taking a knee at the end of the game. This area simply HAS to improve in the weeks to come, as allowing long drives that wear down a defense and eat up clock AND seven points on those drives every time, is unsustainable.
Verdict: Catastrophic Regression
Sacks Forced
2022: 3.0 per game, 13th nationally
2023: 1.0 per game, 129th nationally
The success on defense last year didn’t come because of a bunch of negative plays, but rather not allowing big ones. Still, they had a few big performances from the pass rush that helped this metric out quite a bit in 2022. UVa isn’t as good on the back end this year, especially with the depth issues, so not being able to create negative plays is becoming a bigger problem. Last week at BC, the Hoos didn’t force a single sack. The question now is where do they get pressure going forward, given the fact that four of their five sacks on the season have come from players now out for the year.
Verdict: Significant Regression
Plays of 20+ Yards Allowed
2022: 32, 2nd nationally
2023: 22, 79th nationally
Well this is somewhat staggering. Perhaps this stat is driven in part by the opponents UVa has played in the first five games, but the Wahoos are on track to surpass their 20+ yard plays allowed by game seven or eight of the season. It’s bad to give up big plays often, and UVa is allowing 4.4 of these per game now, but it’s even worse when they go for touchdowns. The Cavaliers allowed big-play touchdowns in several of their losses, and it’s difficult for a defense to recover from those. This is a really significant drop off from elite to below average, and it feels like it’s a combination of worse tackling and pass defense, along with some breakdowns here and there.
Verdict: Significant Regression
Turnovers Created
2022: 1.3 per game, 95th nationally
2023: 1.2 per game, 77th nationally
Not much of a change here. UVa wasn’t a turnover-heavy defense last year, and this year, has struggled to force them too. UVa forced four of its six turnovers in the BC game, and in their other four contests, the Wahoos didn’t force many game-changing plays. The BC turnovers helped them to a good start and allowed them to stay in the game late, because they were the only stops the defense forced in the second half. They probably need to force at least one or two turnovers per game to win, and in some games that probably won’t be enough.
Verdict: No Change
Bonus
Penalties
2022: 62.2 yards per game, 107th nationally
2023: 59 yards per game, 93rd nationally
We threw this one in because penalties have been a major issue of late. UVa had three back-breaking flags late in the NC State game, and 11 penalties at BC on Saturday. The two-penalty performance against Tennessee makes the numbers look a bit better than they have been in recent weeks, and they’re still not great. The Hoos struggled with penalties last year too, and that’s not surprising given it was the first year for a new staff. But these issues should be cleaned up and they haven’t been. In Bronco Mendenhall’s second year, penalties dropped from 57.9 yards per game (84th nationally) to 45.5 (37th nationally). The Mike London years were known for on-field errors, but even his teams played a lot cleaner from his first to second year. The Cavaliers went from 118th in penalty yards per game in 2010 to 28th nationally in 2011. Perhaps Elliott’s second team can turn things around in the second half of the year and have a similar increase, but that remains to be seen.
Verdict: No Change
Final Thoughts
There were 11 categories listed above. Of those key areas, three have improved, one significantly so. Four categories regressed, some drastically, and four more have had little to no change. UVa is below average to very poor in the categories with no change, so no change can be categorized as a bad thing.
All three improvement areas came on the offensive side of the ball, and all of the regression areas came from the defense.
That shouldn’t be a huge surprise, given where the two groups started from. It does feel that personnel may be the biggest difference for both groups, as the defense is down quite a few players and lost a few key contributors from last year’s team. The offense, on the other hand, has improved in spite of their attrition, but more likely because of the attrition.
The only area where UVa has improved dramatically from last year, among these categories, is scoring touchdowns in the red zone. That improvement has helped UVa make modest improvements on that side of the ball, going from 17 points per game last year, 126th nationally, to 21.7 points per game this season, 107th nationally. But that uptick hasn’t been enough to win games.
The defense is simply much worse a year ago, and injuries are certainly not helping. And while the offense is doing a better job scoring touchdowns in the red zone, the defense is giving up just as many on the other end of the field. If we could pair the 2023 offense with the 2022 defense, this team might have a few wins. But unfortunately, that’s not how it works.
We still have more than half the season remaining to figure out if UVa can make strides in any of these areas. But if the season ends and these numbers look the same, it will be no surprise when the Cavaliers have only a win or maybe two to show for their efforts.
