Deep Dive: State of the Program, Part I

In the series finale of The Office, Andy Bernard says “I wish there was a way to know you were in the good old days before you actually left them.” That quote fit the character but was an oddly meta commentary on the show itself as it dipped in quality after Steve Carell left a few seasons earlier.

UVa basketball fans certainly seemed to know that they were in the “good old days” during the long run of success that culminated in a national title in 2019. There were plenty of upsets and disappointments along the way, of course, but they were ultimately overshadowed by a great deal of success and eventually reaching the pinnacle of the sport.

But while fans may have recognized that they were living through the program’s high water mark in the last decade, they may not have realized, until the last year or so, that the program has departed from the mountain top a bit.

Nothing in sports, especially college hoops, is permanent and the Wahoos still have a great coach and the ability to get back to where they were, but first it’s time to acknowledge that they’re not where they were from 2014 to 2019.

In the four years since the title a lot has happened, including having a season ended by a global pandemic. But in the other three opportunities to make a deep run in March, UVa lost to a double-digit seed in the first round twice, and missed the tournament altogether the other time. While plenty of programs would love to have a four-year run like that, Virginia fans have experienced enough success to know that there is more out there.

With the 2022-23 season in the rear view, it’s become more clear that UVa basketball is in a downturn phase since the title run. Much will be made of the lack of success in the NCAA Tournament, but really that is more a symptom of a drop off in play than it is further proof that they dominate the regular season but are “frauds” in March.

Truth is, the Cavaliers haven’t really been dominant in the regular season or otherwise since 2019. They’ve been good, but not at the level they were at their peak, from that 2014 team that won Tony Bennett’s first ACC title through the national title team.

In Part 1 of our State of the Program feature, we take a look at how UVa reached a third phase of the Bennett era and recognize that the Hoos have work to do to get back to the top.

March 31, 2009-December 31, 2013 (1,736 days)

When Bennett arrived at UVa, the program needed a lot of work. The Cavaliers went to the NCAA Tournament in 2007 and followed that with a 17-16 season before a 10-18 record in Dave Leitao’s final year. Bennett probably needed a bit more runway than most coaches would to get the team to play the way he wanted them to, as well. He went 15-16 in his first year and then 16-15 in his second season, but laid the foundation for his program.

As it ramped up, he dealt with some attrition. UVa lost the most talented player that Bennett inherited, Sylven Landesberg, when he was kicked off the team. And while the first recruiting class at UVa was quite good, most of those players didn’t stick around: Former four-star guard K.T. Harrell left for Auburn, guard Billy Baron went to Rhode Island (and eventually to Canisius) to play for his father, big men James Johnson and Will Regan didn’t work out and both transferred.

The two players that did stick around, Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, were a major part of UVa’s transition into Phase Two. They, along with Mike Scott, Sammy Zeglinski and others were the face of Bennett’s building phase in Charlottesville, which culminated in an NCAA Tournament appearance in 2012. That game ended in a disappointing blowout as a banged up UVa team limped to the finish, but Bennett proved that he could develop All-ACC talent (Scott) and was having success on the recruiting trail. Virginia enrolled another big class of first years in the 2012-13 season, and fell just short of back-to-back NCAA Tournaments, going to the NIT instead.

January 1, 2014-April 8, 2019 (1,923 days)

We pick up Phase 2 after the embarrassing blowout loss at Tennessee on December 30, 2013, starting the second chapter of Bennett’s time at UVa when Harris famously drove to his coach’s house in search of a solution. UVa entered the 2013-14 season with relatively high expectations, at least for where the program was at that time. UVa didn’t quite live up to the hype early in the season and were 9-4 when the calendar turned to 2014.

UVa handed a good Florida State team on the road on January 4 and the rest was history. Over the course of Phase Two, Bennett and UVa went 169-31 overall and 100-23 in ACC games between the regular season and conference tournament. The Hoos won the ACC regular-season title four times and the ACC Tournament twice. They won at least one ACC Tournament game each year and went to the NCAA Tournament in all six seasons, winning at least one game in five of those trips. They advanced to the second weekend in three of the six seasons, went to two Elite Eights, and won a national title in 2019. It’s also worth noting, of course, that they also became the first (but, now, not the last) 1-seed to lose to a 16-seed.

UVa’s postseason record during this span was mixed but there likely aren’t many programs who can say they did better during that span. UVa’s loss to UMBC and the national title thereafter draw all of the attention now, but overall it’s also probably true that they left some potential Final Four runs on the table. The 2014 team ran into an underseeded Michigan State team in the Sweet 16 that was a 4-seed but top-10 in KenPom, and lost a game that truly could’ve gone either way. The next year UVa had a great season but ultimately crashed out of the NCAAs in the second round. On the surface this looks disappointing, but Virginia lost to another MSU team, one that ended up in the Final Four, and the Cavaliers weren’t really the same after Justin Anderson’s injury, even though he did eventually return.

UVa’s 2016 flame out in the Elite Eight is probably the biggest regret, as the Hoos got some bracket luck, played a team they usually dominated, and had a roster capable of winning it all (they beat eventual national champions Villanova and runner ups UNC in the regular season). The 2017 team was a solid bunch but a bit of an outlier in this stretch, the only team during the 2014-19 run to lose 10+ games, not to be a 1-seed or 2-seed in the ACC or NCAA Tournaments, and the only team not to advance to the ACC Tournament Semifinals.

There’s no reason to offer any more writing on the 2018 and 2019 seasons, other than to say that both teams won 30+ games; one lost in historic fashion without a future lottery pick and the other won it all with that lottery pick healthy for the postseason.

In addition to all of the winning, this was the best period of basketball in UVa history. The Cavaliers rose to a power both within their own conference (while Duke and UNC both continued to compete at the highest level of the sport and win national titles), and nationally. They were ranked for nearly all of this stretch, including hitting No. 1 in the AP Top 25 in two separate season. JPJ became one of the best home-court advantages in the country (82-6 in Charlottesville during Phase 2). The program developed a number of players who were selected in the NBA Draft, nine in total, including a lottery pick (De’Andre Hunter) and an NBA Rookie of the Year (Malcolm Brogdon), won a host of All-ACC honors including an ACC Player of the Year (again, Brogdon) and launched Bennett to be considered one of the nation’s premier coaches.

April 9, 2019-Present (1,441 days and counting)

This is UVa’s current state, until the Wahoos have proven that they’ve moved out of it. And frankly, it wasn’t clear that Virginia was moving into a post-title phase, probably until last season or this season. That’s partially the case because of the COVID-19 pandemic that nobody saw coming and impacted the program and the sport at large in ways that nobody could have anticipated when UVa cut the nets down in Minneapolis the previous year.

But it’s also clear in reviewing the last four seasons of basketball that UVa hasn’t taken advantage of the national title and has regressed a bit, becoming a very good program that wins a lot and is competitive but hasn’t fielded a team truly competing for a national title since it won four years ago.

Again, there are plenty of factors that can lead to this sort of change in performance. Ironically, UVa winning it all in 2019 was probably the biggest contributing factor in their immediate decline: The core of that 2019 team all left for the NBA. There’s no guarantee that any of them would’ve returned otherwise, of course, but it’s also fair to say that while UVa expected a lot from the 2016 recruiting class, these three exceeded expectations and did so faster than expected, too. Hunter played just two seasons after redshirting, and then went #4 in the NBA Draft. Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome were All-ACC players for their sophomore and junior campaigns, and then had sort of accomplished all that they set out to and moved on to the next chapter.

And simply put, there wasn’t really any way to replace them for the following season. UVa brought back Kihei Clark, Mamadi Diakite and others, and was adding Casey Morsell to the roster, but it was clear the 2020 team would look far different than 2019. UVa went out and got Tomas Woldetensae from the JUCO ranks to add some offense, and signed Justin McKoy to the recruiting class after the title.

Virginia simply didn’t have the fire power after having an elite offense the year prior, and dropped to a woeful 234th nationally in offensive efficiency. But on the defensive end, the Wahoos did in fact have the pieces in place to remain elite, and that alone helped them to a solid 23-7 (15-5 ACC) season that was halted when the pandemic broke out in the country, canceling the postseason. Though they closed out the season winning their last eight in a row, postseason expectations weren’t exactly through the roof given their inability to score.

UVa went to the transfer portal to supplement the roster and added Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy, two really good gets for the Cavaliers. The hope going into that season was that the transfers (Murphy was initially going to sit the season out but received a waiver at the 11th hour to play right away) would be significant contributors while the young players on the roster would make a leap, like Guy and Jerome did in their sophomore seasons, as veterans Clark and Jay Huff would lead the team.

The 2021 season was as strange as any could be, with a shortened schedule, no fans in most venues, and games called off at the last minute. UVa ended up playing just six non-conference games, mostly against overwhelmed opponents; Virginia also lost to San Francisco and Gonzaga. The Hoos ended the regular season 17-6 and 13-4 in ACC play, behind a much improved offense and a defense that was far worse than the 2020 group. They won their lone ACC Tournament game and then had to leave Greensboro after a positive COVID test, and were barely able to get to the NCAA Tournament bubble to play their game. UVa dropped their First Round game to Ohio after having just one practice that week, but while it’s easy to wonder what might have been it seems like the ceiling likely would’ve been a Sweet 16 appearance. UVa would’ve faced Gonzaga there, and the Hoos lost to the Zags 98-75 in the regular season.

In 2022, UVa again had to deal with a lot of attrition, some of which wasn’t accounted for in roster planning. Murphy—like Guy, Jerome and Hunter—overshot his expectations and played just one year in Charlottesville before leaving to become Bennett’s second lottery pick. UVa also lost Hauser and Huff to the NBA, though their departures were expected, as well as Woldetensae, who was out of eligibility. And then, UVa lost a group of young players that were brought in to help replace the ‘big three,’ but it simply didn’t work out that way. Morsell departed for NC State after two disappointing seasons at Virginia; McKoy left for UNC, and freshman Jabri Abdur-Rahim went to Georgia after failing to break into the rotation in his lone year on Grounds.

Virginia again had to dip into the portal to find starters, and added Armaan Franklin and Jayden Gardner to the roster. The 2022 season was a bit like 2020 where UVa simply lost too much offense, and wasn’t able to replace it effectively enough to have a top-end team. Gardner and Franklin had moments but weren’t transcendent enough to push the Hoos over the top; UVa also required a lot from Clark and Reece Beekman, and Kody Stattmann off the bench. The result was a season that opened with a loss to Navy and ended in the NIT.

The expectations were higher for UVa this season, bringing most of its production back from last year, with another season in the system for Franklin and Gardner. UVa also added Ben Vander Plas from the portal and brought in a talented freshman class, the best Bennett has signed since that 2016 group that won a title. And despite the first-round loss to Furman, the Wahoos were better; they just weren’t at the level, on offense or defense of a vintage Bennett Virginia team that could truly compete for a national title. This team’s doppelganger is the 2021 squad that had a good amount of offense but didn’t have elite defense that has been a staple for Bennett. It also relied on outside shooting to be productive, and like that team, ended up a 4-seed in the NCAA’s, losing to a 13-seed.

In life, as in sports, change is inevitable. Sometimes they change quickly and sometimes it comes slowly. Sometimes change happens and people don’t even realize it until they look up later and take notice. And that’s what has happened with UVa basketball, at least to some extent, over the past half decade.

When looking for stats to support the dominance of the Bennett era at Virginia, that 2014 season is a good place to start. And with good reason. That season was the one where the program finally went over the dam, so to speak, and became one of the nation’s best, at least for a six-season span.

And while that building phase of the program ended neatly when the calendar turned to 2014, it now seems that the elite run that UVa was on wrapped up when the confetti fell in Minneapolis four years ago.

For what it’s worth, there’s no reason to assume that “Phase 2” is as good as it will get for Virginia. Granted, it will be very, very difficult for the Hoos to win more games in a five-and-a-half year stretch, but if the Cavaliers can have a successful run where they return to being one of the top teams in the sport, win a conference title or two and make a real dent in a few NCAA Tournaments, it may not totally quench UVa fans’ thirst having won a title, but it should quiet some of the noise from the outside a bit. Even under one coach, programs or pro teams will have different periods with ebbs and flows. The New England Patriots, for example, had several mini-runs within the Belichick/Brady era. Jordan’s Bulls and Kobe’s Lakers both had dynasty-like runs with years in between.

There’s no way to know how long UVa will stay in this current phase, or what the next phase looks like. Bennett is truly one of the best coaches in the country, and if this phase is the floor for the remainder of his time in Charlottesville, then he’s certainly on pace to be a Hall of Famer. If this current phase drags on much longer, though, or gets worse, fans will probably start to get restless, whether that’s fair or not.

In The Wire, Slim Charles says “The thing about the old days, they the old days.” UVa fans will never forget the 2019 title run, and the passage of time doesn’t mean that they needs to appreciate what happened in that season, and the five seasons before it, even less. But Virginia’s program in the years since hasn’t really been able to build on that in four years since, and what they Cavaliers are currently doing is not an extension of that 2014-2019 run.

The 2022 recruiting class could be the group that pushes UVa up a level or two, starting as soon as next season. And if they’re not, Bennett and his staff need to go out and find the guys that will be. Whoever that group is, they’ll both be building on the success of the teams that came before them but also starting a new phase of UVa basketball.

In Part Two, we’ll take a look at what UVa needs to get back to the top. Spoiler alert….it’s talent.