1. Virginia is closing the 2023 class with some momentum.

UVa hasn’t necessarily generated a lot of buzz nationally for its recruiting efforts in Tony Elliott’s first full cycle but the Wahoos do appear to be heading into the early signing period on the right track.

Since the end of the season, they have picked up five three-star commitments, the most-recent coming on Monday night when they added defensive end Mekhi Buchanan. Virginia also picked up a pair of Floridians in the last week as well, adding defensive linemen D.J. Jones from Tampa on the 12th and former Iowa State commit Jason Hammond from Fort Lauderdale on Saturday. UVa also added a pair of wide receivers this month, securing the commitments of Georgia record-setter Jaden Gibson (formerly committed to Georgia Southern) and 6-foot-4 Titus Ivy out of North Carolina.

Those additions have moved UVa’s team ranking (as of this writing) up to 55 when it was in the 70’s nationally not too long ago. Assuming everyone committed to UVa signs as expected, and perhaps the staff adds another player or two, then the Cavaliers should get some credit for finishing strong after having a few bumps and defections along the way.

2. This group has talent but its success will be determined by the level of development.

In a few years, we’ll look back on this class and either say that UVa took a lot of chances on under-the-radar players after not getting enough reciprocal interest from top-tier guys, or we’ll say that the recruiting staff did a great job scouting and picked up some gems that other schools missed.

That’s easy to say now because many of the players in UVa’s class were recruited by smaller schools or had quiet recruitments.

Of Virginia’s 18 commits on the eve of Early Signing Day, 12 didn’t have a Power-5 offer besides the one from UVa. It’s not unheard of for UVa to take a group of players without P5 offers in a recruiting cycle; it’s standard practice for a non-elite power conference program. But 12 of 18 is a pretty high number of prospects that will either be proved to be underrated or projects in a couple of years. In Virginia’s 2021 class, the last full group that signed to play for Bronco Mendenhall, only five of UVa’s 24 signees didn’t have another P5 offer. Last year, five of 16 signees didn’t have additional P5 offers. So this class is clearly a bit of an outlier.

There’s plenty of talent and production on display when reviewing the highlights of these players, but Virginia’s willingness to take chances on under-the-radar prospects is something to watch in the next cycle and beyond.

3. UVa hauled in a bunch of in-state commits but there’s still room to improve in the Commonwealth.

As UVa approaches the early period (aka the de fact NSD), the Hoos have six Virginians in their 2023 class. They come from all over the state, from Ringgold to Tappahannock to Prince William County. And while six is a solid number of in-state commits, UVa still has work to do within the Commonwealth.

Landing linebacker Kam Robinson (more on him in a bit) was a big win for the Cavaliers. Robinson, ranked the ninth-best player in the state, the first top-10 in-state player UVa has landed in quite some time. Cole Surber and Miles Greene were sought-after recruits as well, and come from talent-rich areas or schools, which will hopefully pay off for the Cavaliers down the road.

But it’s also worth noting that Robinson is UVa’s only commit in the state’s top 25 players for the 2023 class. UVa was close on a few of those top 25 players, and had Rodney Lora (No. 19, now committed to UNC) in the class at one time. But if UVa is going to create a more competitive roster from in-state talent, the Cavaliers will need to fend off some out-of-state programs as well as Virginia Tech for top Commonwealth talent. This cycle 20 of the state’s top 25 are headed out of state to play college ball, with four more headed to Blacksburg. Penn State landed the top two Virginians and three of the top five, with six commits in that top 25 group. UNC has five more.

UVa can’t expect to beat out Penn State and other similar programs for top talent, but the Wahoos need to fight off UNC and other types of teams for more top players and try to turn one top 25 commit into a handful in the next cycle.

1. Will UVa hang on to Kam Robinson?

Usually when a highly-regarded commit starts taking late official visits elsewhere, it’s time to consider them no longer part of the class. That’s especially true when the player is visiting Florida State and an SEC program. But UVa is doing all it can to hold on to Robinson, the best player in this class, and a key in-state commit for the new staff. Robinson completed visits to FSU and South Carolina and is now set to sign with his school of choice on Wednesday. Robinson never decommitted from UVa (at least publicly) and if the Hoos can hang onto him, it’s a huge win for a staff that could use as many as they can get on the trail.

We’ll wait and see where Robinson sends his paperwork tomorrow but this tweet from Monday night with Robinson in orange and blue could be a good sign for the Cavaliers.

2. Can the Wahoos add another commit to the class?

While Virginia has already added five commits to the 2023 class this month, the staff would love to grab a sixth as the class signs on Wednesday. With Buchanan, Jones, and Hammond already in the fold, the best bet for an addition would be 5-foot-10 athlete Suderian Harrison. The three-star playmaker had a busy fall, picking up offers from UVa, Virginia Tech and Louisville, and heading out for official visits.

Harrison, who played at the same high school as late UVa receiver Lavel Davis Jr., took an official visit to Charlottesville in the first weekend of December, and was visited by UVa’s coaches a few days later at his home near Charleston. UVa seems to have the momentum here with the late visit and Harrison will announce his choice on Wednesday.

Virginia’s impending OL coach hire will have a major impact on the 2024 class.

UVa will be looking to gather some more momentum on the trail in the 2024 class now that the staff has had a year to develop relationships and scout for talent. The Cavaliers are also in the process of making at least one staff change, with offensive line coach Garett Tujague off to NC State. Virginia took just one offensive lineman in this class (Surber, the three-star in-state prospect), which makes sense given the number of linemen the Hoos went out and got late in the 2022 cycle.

Tujague was one of UVa’s key recruiters and held the Recruiting Coordinator title. He, along with Marques Hagans, were the only coaches on staff that have been with the program longer than three seasons. Elliott obviously has an important hire to make, and regardless of who he picks that coach will likely be going out to grab a decent number of linemen in 2024, after a light 2023 class.

And while we don’t know what Elliott decides to do with the Recruiting Coordinator position, it would be a big boost if he can add a competent coach that can also go out and develop relationships and close recruitments on the trail.