Hoops Minutes: Breaking down the guards and the wings

With Virginia’s basketball roster coming into focus, and very little turnover to speak of, it appears the Cavaliers will have a deep roster with tons of competition for spots. And while there are plenty of familiar faces, including all five of UVa’s starters and its top bench contributor, there will also be an infusion of talent.

The freshman class has star power and more ability to earn early playing time than we have seen in recent years. Add Ohio transfer Ben Vander Plas into the mix and the Cavaliers will have plenty of players looking to get on the floor.

Today, we take a look at UVa’s projected 2022-2023 roster and attempt to project what playing time could look like, starting with the guard and wing spots.

Kody Stattmann: 15.8 mpg

Malachi Poindexter: 6.3 mpg (in 19 games)

Carson McCorkle: 4.8 mpg (in 16 games)

Virginia brings nearly everyone back from last year’s team, with Stattmann the biggest contributor to depart. The Aussie wing played a career-high 15.8 minutes per game, mostly at the 3 spot, scoring 3.3 points per contest. UVa has plenty of wings to take his minutes and will have lineup flexibility with a bunch of different options.

Odd as it sounds, Malachi Poindexter might be a little tougher to replace with next year’s roster. Tony Bennett would play Poindexter in spots when he needed an extra on-ball guard, one he could trust on the defensive end. Poindexter, who transferred into a scholarship role at Illinois State, played sparingly in most games but saw 10 minutes in wins over Duke and Georgia Tech in ACC play. Poindexter didn’t play a huge role last season, but without him, UVa could be a little light on depth at the ball-handler spots if one of their two starters misses some time during the campaign.

Kihei Clark

2021-2022 MPG: 36.0

Having announced last month that he would return to Charlottesville for a fifth season, we don’t have time to unpack all of the different fan reactions in this piece. But Clark’s usage in next year’s lineup has been a point of contention for Cavalier fans in recent weeks. He has played a lot of minutes over the past three seasons and is well on his way to breaking the UVa record for minutes in a Cavalier career. Clark actually played a little bit less in the 2020-21 season, when Reece Beekman spelled him at the point. But Clark was back up to 36 minutes per contest last season, shooting 38.7 percent from the field and averaging 10 points and 4.4 assists per game.

Despite what some fans have suggested, it’s unlikely that Clark suddenly has a huge drop-off in minutes or plays in some sort of reserve role. Bennett famously defers to players he trusts, in some instances over players with the highest long-term potential. This isn’t necessarily a bad bet, given how rigid UVa’s systems are on both ends, and how lapses can be costly. And who is more tested against ACC competition than Clark?

The big question becomes how do Clark and Beekman co-exist in the backcourt with this new-look roster? Clark shot the ball well from 3 for a good portion of the season, but eventually settled in at a 34.6 percent average. That’s fine, but it can’t be the best average on the team, as it was this past season (among regular contributors). Still, given Clark’s size and Beekman not being known as a dead-eye shooter, that backcourt pairing allowed opponents to sag off a bit more, and keep the Cavalier guards from getting in the lane and creating easier buckets. That’s still a problem that needs to be solved this year, but with different and more-experienced personnel, there’s a good chance UVa’s shooting will improve.

Regardless, expect Clark to either lead the team in minutes per game this season, or come close. We will predict a slight downtick in minutes for the fifth-year senior though, with more options at the 2 and 3 spots allowing Beekman to play a bit more as a true point guard.

Clark’s 2022-23 Projection:

Role: Starting PG, with some off-ball possessions, sharing ball-handling with Beekman

Minutes Per Game: 33.5

Reece Beekman

2021-2022 MPG: 35.1

Beekman had a bit of a breakout sophomore season and became one of UVa’s more consistent players. He started to show his potential as a great two-way player, averaging 5.2 assists and 2.1 steals per contest. Beekman ended up playing 35.1 minutes per contest, second only to Clark.

As detailed in Clark’s section, UVa’s “iron-man” approach to the backcourt minutes will likely carry over in some ways. Beekman, like Clark, has proven himself dependable. He isn’t a prolific shooter, at least not yet, but he still finished with 8.2 points per contest and shot 33.8 percent from three. Beekman can also be a lock-down defender, is quick enough to guard shiftier, smaller guards as well as bigger guards.

The biggest “problem,” if we want to call it that, is that both Clark and Beekman are best as ball-dominant point guards. Clark is a better outside shooter than Beekman, but his size presents some challenges when he’s playing off the ball more. Beekman is a prototypical point, with great vision and ball skills but doesn’t have the offensive game of a typical shooting guard. In recent years, UVa has favored lineups with multiple ball-handlers in the backcourt, which makes sense. In the run to the 2019 title, the Cavaliers would often play Clark alongside another point guard in Ty Jerome, with Kyle Guy also able to handle the ball. But while Jerome and Guy could play on ball, they were also great shooters who fit well in off-ball roles. If Beekman and Clark are going to play big minutes together, and we expect them to, they will have to do a better job keeping defenses honest with outside shots, and for Beekman, an ability to drive by defenders, and kick to open shooters.

While Clark is the most-experienced Cavalier returning, this could start to become Reece Beekman’s team, so to speak, in 2023. And we expect his minutes will reflect that.

Beekman’s 2022-23 Projection:

Role: Starting SG with plenty of PG minutes (with Clark or others alongside in the backcourt)

Minutes Per Game: 35.0

Armaan Franklin

2021-2022 MPG: 29.5

When transferring in from Indiana, it was pretty clear that Franklin would play a big part in the 2021-22 season. And he did, playing 29.5 minutes per game, finishing second on the team in scoring at 11.1 points per game. The big disappointment was Franklin’s outside shooting, which was inconsistent at best. The Indianapolis native finished the season 29.6 percent from deep, which further limited the offense’s ability to stretch the floor, and opposing defenses.

Franklin played the 2 at times but saw most of his time at the “three” spot, alongside Beekman and Clark. Franklin split time at the three spot, mostly with Stattmann, throughout the season. That spot was rarely taken up by a forward, as UVa has done in the past when going to big lineups. Francisco Caffaro and Kadin Shedrick rarely played together, so Jayden Gardner could play the 4 spot along with one of those big men in most lineups.

Of the players we’ve discussed so far, Franklin is by far the most likely to have a different role next season. UVa’s roster is being overhauled as young talent is brought in as well as a transfer who could take some minutes at a wing or forward position. Franklin has experience, and we mentioned earlier how coveted that can be. He also saw an uptick in his 3-point shooting in the NIT, after the coaches noticed a hitch in his shot. Whether the better shooting carries over to next season remains to be seen, but that is Franklin’s best path to continuing to play big-time minutes. If he struggles to shoot, he opens the door for one of UVa’s younger players to take some of his minutes, which may happen regardless.

We expect Franklin to start, or at least play starter-ish minutes, and be a big part of the plan for the Hoos. But he will need to show improvement with his outside shot, because unlike last season, Tony Bennett may have some other options that he can go to.

Franklin’s 2022-23 Projection:

Role: Starting wing OR sixth man with minutes at the 2 and 3

Minutes Per Game: 22

Taine Murray

2021-2022 MPG: 7.7 MPG (in 19 games)

Between the returning starters and the incoming freshman class, it feels like Murray may be Virginia’s forgotten man. He played sparingly as a freshman, appearing in 19 games as a wing. Murray had one big performance, scoring 14 points in 21 minute against Iowa. But he wasn’t able to recapture that in the games that followed, and his playing time quickly fell back off.

Murray has a chance to play more this season, but he will have to beat out other similar players in what looks to be a crowded roster. As with all Virginia freshmen, his defense was a work-in-progress in Year 1. Improvement there is his best path to the floor, as he has already demonstrated an ability to shoot and score. Murray could step up and play more, particularly if Franklin struggles with his shot, while the freshmen go through the typical acclimation process. Despite a deep roster, Murray decided to return to Virginia for a second season, indicating that he’s going to give it a go and compete for his minutes. But with Franklin back, the two guard spots occupied often by Clark and Beekman, there’s no guarantees that Murray will play much more than he did last year. We won’t know what his role will be until the season begins, and likely won’t have a really good idea until ACC play is off and running.

Murray’s 2022-23 Projection:

Role: Rotation player competing for bench minutes at the wing spot

Minutes Per Game: 10

Isaac McKneely

MPG: N/A

Of Virginia’s incoming freshman class, McKneely seems the most likely to jump in and play significant minutes right away. He is a capable offensive player that can shoot and score at the rim. He also has experience playing in the pack-line at the high-school level, though Bennett’s version will certainly demand more of him.

McKneely’s fit in UVa’s schemes along with his ability to fill it up from beyond the arc make him a strong candidate to break into the rotation. Virginia does have quite a bit of experience back at the guard and wing spots, so any playing time the West Virginia native gets will have to be earned, and deserved.

This isn’t a situation where a freshman guard will play by default, particularly if Franklin’s shooting improves. The question for McKneely, and the other three signees too, is exactly how ready are they to play. This is not something that is always easy to project, regardless of hype from the fanbase.

Our guess is that McKneely’s shooting gets him onto the floor, though maybe not as much as some UVa fans expect/hope out of the gate. But by March, we’ll predict that McKneely is a relied-upon part of the rotation, coming off the bench and playing meaningful minutes down the stretch, before a big leap forward in his sophomore season.

McKneely’s 2022-23 Projection:

Role: Rotation player competing for minutes, with upside for a bigger role possible

Minutes Per Game: 15

Ryan Dunn

MPG: N/A

While McKneely has received a lot of buzz ahead of his arrival in Charlottesville, Dunn has been a bit under-the-radar. The Cavalier signee chose Virginia in September, completing the excellent 2022 recruiting class. He has a lot of length and seems destined to play at the wing, and potentially defend opposing guards once he gets acclimated to Virginia’s defense, with his length and quickness.

Speaking of that acclimation progress, Dunn could be a player that benefits from a year of seasoning, getting in the weight room with Mike Curtis and contributing in practice but not in games. Dunn could certainly come in and earn his minutes right away, but with a crowded roster in the backcourt, someone is going to have to either sit a year or play sparingly. He seems like the odds-on-favorite, but Bennett has shown every year that he will play young players if they can bring it on defense, so we’ll wait and see.

Dunn’s 2022-23 Projection:

Role: Redshirt or competing for limited bench minutes

Minutes Per Game: <5

Note: For this projection, we’ll leave Franklin as a starter (though UVa could end up starting games with a bigger lineup), and while Clark and Beekman are a bit interchangeable when playing together, we’ll call Clark the PG and Beekman the SG in those minutes. I also rounded off the minute projections.

Stay tuned for our Part Two, where we project the rotation for UVa’s big wings and frontcourt players.