With the football team off this week, ACC Tip-Off on Wednesday and the annual Blue/White scrimmage at JPJ on Saturday, it’s clear that basketball season is fast approaching. After missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013, the Virginia Cavaliers have higher expectations heading into this season, which opens on November 7 at home against North Carolina Central.
We’ll start to learn more about this team in Saturday’s scrimmage, though it will be tough to determine rotations and the like with a split squad playing against themselves. But given what we already know about Tony Bennett’s team, we feel comfortable making some not-so-bold predictions ahead of the 22-23 season.
1. Virginia’s experience will pay off this year.
It was pretty clear right out of the gate that last season would be a different sort of challenge for the program. Early losses to Navy, JMU, and others showed that this team wasn’t going to have much of a margin for error, and while the team’s gradual improvement throughout the season was evident, they weren’t quite able to rise to the level of a tournament-caliber team. It’s better to learn lessons in hard-fought wins, but the 21-22 Wahoos had to work their way through a more difficult path that included some disappointing and challenging losses.
Fast forward to this fall and the Cavaliers have a chance to use their experience from last season to become a much better team. Two of Virginia’s most-important players, Jayden Gardner and Armaan Franklin, were in their first year with the program and history shows that the learning curve with Bennett’s schemes on both ends can be steep. Several of Virginia’s other players like Reece Beekman and Kadin Shedrick took on larger roles last season, and their significant uptick in playing time certainly will pay dividends this season. On top of that, this UVa team should be deeper, meaning those players that rarely exited the game should be more fresh this season, which will hopefully lead to better play down the stretch in games.
Last season didn’t go the way UVa wanted but the team demonstrated improvement, and had more than 30 opportunities to play together and earn chemistry. With the veterans more comfortable and talent and depth added to the roster, this team should be able to at least be more consistent and get back to being an NCAA Tournament caliber team.
2. Isaac McKneely will be the most-impactful first-year player.
Bennett is on the record at this point saying that McKneely is the freshman with the best chance to break into the rotation this season. That should come as no surprise, given a few factors. First, McKneely is a very solid addition to the roster who should be able to come in and make an impact. UVa could use more of a scoring punch on offense, and the West Virginia guard should be able to provide that. Second, the 2 and 3 spots are probably the ones with the best path to the court at this point. It also doesn’t hurt that McKneely played in the pack-line defense in high school, though that transition should still be difficult.
How McKneely fits into the rotation will be something to watch as the season begins. Franklin has the experience but was up-and-down offensively and if nothing else platooning the two players could be a good thing for both of them. Beekman and Kihei Clark will also play together plenty, so McKneely may need to slide up to the three spot in smaller lineups.
It’s always good to be cautiously optimistic with freshmen at UVa, as playing time doesn’t always come in Year 1, and the transition into Bennett’s systems can be a challenge. But if McKneely can inspire confidence in the coaching staff and demonstrate will and skill on the defensive end, he should be part of the plans.
3. UVa’s early schedule will lead to a few setbacks but will ultimately help the team grow.
Part of the reason that UVa’s tournament resume was so flawed down the stretch last year was the number of really bad losses the Hoos suffered early in the season. Those losses in November and December were an anchor on the their tournament profile and until the win at Duke in February, they didn’t have any big wins to cancel out the early setbacks.
UVa will still need to avoid bad losses early in this season because as always there are a few teams on the slate that will be near the bottom of the NET and KenPom rankings come March. But this season’s slate will also provide UVa a lot of opportunities for signature wins, and games that can be lost without much impact on their metrics.
UVa plays Baylor in Las Vegas in November and then either Illinois or UCLA two days later. Those two games will be big opportunities for the Hoos to prove themselves or at least see how they stack up against some of the nation’s best teams. Virginia also gets a road test at Michigan in the ACC/B1G challenge and a home game with Houston; not to mention early ACC contests against Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech in December.
Needless to say, we’ll know a lot about how this team stacks up by New Years’ Day.
4. Kadin Shedrick will be the team’s most-improved player.
UVa has a lot of experienced players back, but none has more untapped potential than Shedrick. And that’s not to say that the big man from North Carolina hasn’t had great moments, because he has. Shedrick played a lot of minutes last year, starting 19 of 35 games. He scored 6.9 points per game, averaging 5.1 rebounds and 1.9 blocks as well. Shedrick had plenty of highlights last season, like a 20-point effort in the regular-season finale against Louisville and 16 points in the win at Duke. But then he had just as many games where he was nearly invisible on offense, or had rough sequences on the defensive end.
Shedrick has tools and an athletic profile that can’t be taught, and we expect UVa fans will see him move closer to his ceiling this season. He looked more comfortable as the season went along and last season was his first real year playing a significant role on the team. This year, expect Shedrick to be more consistent, play more minutes, and be a big part of what UVa does.
5. UVa’s ceiling will be determined by the ability to make 3-pointers.
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about improvement for this UVa team. The Cavaliers bring back a lot of key players from last season who should be further along when the ball gets tipped off next month. They also bring in a freshman class that should be the core of this team for years to come, if all goes according to plan. Not to mention an impact transfer in Ben Vander Plas joining the program as well.
Virginia’s biggest issue throughout most of last season was the inability to knock down outside shots and be consistent on the offensive end. It feels like we know where this team’s floor is, but how great this team can be could come down to how many shots they can make, which should open up everything for the rest of the offense. In 21-22, UVa made just 32.3 percent of its 3-point tries, ranking 247th nationally. For reference, UVa made 39.5 percent of its 3s in 2019 when the Hoos won the title, fifth-best nationally. So a modest improvement to the mid 30s would probably be enough to get the them back where they want to go in March, and anything beyond that could result in a special season.
