Editor’s Note: Two weeks ago, on the heels of UVa’s dismal offensive showing in Louisville, we took a deep dive into all that ailed the Cavalier offense. Since then, the Wahoos have looked dramatically different in wins over North Carolina and Georgia Tech. So, with Virginia off this week we thought we’d revisit the main points from that piece and figure out what’s different heading into the final two games of the regular season.
The Numbers
Virginia’s offense has averaged 35.5 points over the past two games. Through the first eight games of the season, UVa averaged 29.9. The Wahoos lowered their number of sacks per game and didn’t commit a single turnover in the wins over Carolina and GT. In the first eight games, they averaged 4.90 yards per play while in the last two, they’ve averaged 6.46. The Cavaliers have converted all 11 red-zone opportunities into points.
In the first eight games, UVa scored 36 percent of its touchdowns on short fields and averaged 54 yards per touchdown drive, which showed how heavily the Hoos relied upon good field position created by their defense or special teams. In the last two games, they have just one short field TD drive among their nine touchdowns, and averaged 65 yards per touchdown drive.
Virginia was also 16-for-29 on 3rd down in the two recent wins, and that 55 percent success rate is far better than the season average of 44 percent. Virginia’s offense also committed just four total penalties between the two games for 20 total yards and no single penalty of more than five.
Bryce Perkins Catching Fire
The play of Virginia’s senior captain may be the biggest factor in the team’s recent offensive turnaround. In the last two games, he has accounted for 854 yards of total offense, or 427 yards per game. For context, the UVa offense as a whole is averaging 369 yards per game this season, and Perkins accounted for more yards in each of the wins over Georgia Tech and North Carolina than the entire offense did in game against Pitt, ODU, Notre Dame, Miami, Duke, and Louisville.
The unit has seemed determined to get Perkins going on the ground the past several weeks, and against the Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets he looked better running the football than he has all year. In these two games, Perkins rushed 45 times for 218 yards and three touchdowns. That’s 22.5 attempts per game for Perkins and an average of 4.8 yards per carry. In the first eight games, he wasn’t able to post those sorts of numbers. From the Pitt win to the Louisville loss, Perkins rushed 119 times for 275 yards and five touchdowns, three of which came against Duke. That’s an average of 2.3 yards per carry, and fewer than 15 attempts per game. He also had his two longest runs of the season in the two wins, rushing for a 65-yard score in Chapel Hill and a 43-yard draw play against GT that set up a go-ahead touchdown late in the first half.
Through the air, Perkins has done a nice job in the two most recent wins. On 74 total attempts against UNC and GT, he completed 73 percent of his passes for 636 yards (318 per game) with four touchdowns with no interceptions. Perkins hit 250 yards passing in three of his first eight games this year but has done it in each of his last two, including a season-high 378 against UNC. In the first eight games, Perkins completed just 62.6 percent of his throws for 225 yards per game with nine touchdowns and eight picks. The yards per attempt number has gone up considerably as well: Perkins’ average throw has gained 8.6 yards in the past two weeks, while his yards per attempt average was just 6.5 in the first two-thirds of the season, and currently sits at 7.0 for the year. Virginia’s offense is creating more chunk plays in the passing game (Perkins had six versus Georgia Tech and eight versus UNC), and as a result the Hoos are racking up more yardage and creating a more efficient offense. And their quarterback has been the top catalyst.
Taking Care of the Ball
This is an easy one to figure out. Virginia stopped giving the ball away against North Carolina and Georgia Tech, which certainly helps eliminate error. Virginia is +1 in turnovers over the past two weeks, and +7 in points off turnovers. After throwing 10 interceptions in the first eight weeks (one each belong to Brennan Armstrong and Lindell Stone), the Wahoos haven’t thrown any since Louisville. After losing six fumbles in the first eight weeks, UVa has lost none since. The offense did cough it up twice at UNC but luckily both were recovered by the offense. Bronco Mendenhall highlighted the costly turnovers at Louisville that likely took points off the board just before halftime and then set up the Cardinals in enemy territory to take the lead late in the third quarter.
No turnovers in the two games is probably not a sustainable trend but if Perkins can continue to make good choices and get protection then winning the turnover battle becomes easier, and doing that usually leads to positive results.
Red-Zone Efficiency
Virginia has struggled to score touchdowns in the red zone for the last two years but the offense has been much more effective inside the 20 in the last two games.
In the first eight of the season, UVa reached the red zone 40 times and scored on 33 of those drives: 23 of those trips resulted in touchdowns (57.5 percent), 10 in field goals (25 percent) and seven came up empty (17.5 percent). In the wins over UNC and Georgia Tech, the Hoos didn’t let any red zone trip go to waste. Virginia was 5-for-5 at UNC, scoring four touchdowns and one field goal. In a sense, the Cavaliers scored 31 of a possible 35 red zone points. Against Georgia Tech, they went 6-for-6 on red zone trips with 4 touchdowns and a pair of field goals. So, in that game, they scored 33 of a possible 42 red zone points (missing a two-point try). In the first eight games, they scored 201 red zone points, leaving 79 on the table. They missed out 28 percent of their potential red zone points, and in these last two games, the Hoos have missed out on just 17 percent of their possible red zone points.
The red zone improvement has probably been worth about a touchdown per game, and the Cavaliers have overshot their season scoring average in both games as a result.
Spreading the Ball Around
A big part of the offense’s success of late has been diversity in the passing game. Route concepts seem to be different at times, with more routes crossing the face of the quarterback and allowing receivers to catch the ball while running in space. The biggest beneficiary of those changes is Terrell Jana, who has burst onto the scene in the past two weeks. He had a career day at North Carolina, catching 13 passes on 16 targets for 146 yards in the victory. The junior wideout proved that was no fluke against Georgia Tech, hauling in a game-high nine passes for 108 yards. It seems clear that the Cavaliers are making a concerted effort to get Jana more involved in the offense. His last two games have accounted for 40 percent of his catches and 43 percent of his yards on the season. Jana was targeted 5.8 times per game in the first eight contests and has received 28 targets (14 per game) in the last two. It would’ve seemed inconceivable a few weeks ago that UVa’s passing attack could thrive in a game where Hasise Dubois had zero catches on just two targets, but that’s exactly what the Hoos did against Georgia Tech and Jana is a big reason.
He isn’t the only player that has emerged in the passing game. UVa hasn’t used the tight end position a ton in the last two seasons, but Tanner Cowley has been a reliable member of the offense. And against UNC, he had a career day, catching three passes for 53 yards and his first career touchdown. Cowley had another solid day against the Jackets, with a pair of catches for 23 yards. Backup tight end Grant Misch got in the action against UNC as well, making his first career catch and scoring his first career touchdown on the same play. Using the tight ends in the red zone should open things up for everyone else in the passing game, and could even make defenders think twice on plays where Perkins can run or throw.
Many thought that diminutive receivers Tavares Kelly and Billy Kemp would help the Hoos replace Olamide Zacchaeus this year, and until the last two games both players were pretty quiet. But in the past two weeks, they have flashed considerably more. Kemp had an incredible 38 yard touchdown called back on a penalty that didn’t affect the play against Georgia Tech, but still had a nice game anyway. His 4 catches and 51 yards were both career highs, and the sophomore also made the catch that sealed the game for the Cavaliers late in the proceedings. Kelly also made a couple of nice catches, and finished the game with 2 catches for 46 yards, and for his efforts on special teams, was given the honor of breaking the rock in the locker room after the win. Even Wayne Taulapapa has gotten in on the action in the passing game, making three receptions in the previous two games after having just one in the first 8 contests, and none since the first drive of the season at Pittsburgh.
Getting players like Cowley, Kemp, Kelly, and Jana involved in the offense can only be a good thing for the players and the offense at large. Targeting them should keep those receivers engaged throughout the game, and also could take some of the pressure off of Joe Reed and Dubois, who have been asked to do a lot this year.
Better Protection
Lastly, Virginia’s offensive line and pass protection has been the biggest cause for heartburn throughout the season but that group has barely been mentioned in the past two weeks. The line gave up three sacks against UNC and two against Georgia Tech, so they weren’t perfect. But Perkins seems to have more time to throw, and if he doesn’t go downfield, take off and have a successful run.
According to the PFF College’s numbers, Perkins has lost 200 yards to sacks this season, or 20 yards per contest. In the first eight games, Perkins was sacked 31 times. While the average has only gone down a bit in these two games versus the rest of the season, the yards lost to sacks has improved: Virginia lost 22 total yards to sacks in the wins over UNC and Georgia Tech while allowing 22.3 sack yards per game in the first eight.
The offensive line posted its best pass blocking and grades of the season against Georgia Tech, according to PFF. Not coincidentally, the offense as a whole posted its two highest grades against FBS opponents in the last two games.
If the line can continue to give Perkins time then the offense should be less prone to mistakes and therefore able to keep long drives going.
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