Midseason Review: PFF data tells the tale for UVa's offense
Overall: 58.7
Change from 2021:-21.6
Best Game:Richmond (69.6)
Worst Game:Illinois (42.3)
UVa’s offense is down in every individual offensive category from a year ago, meaning its PFF College grades are matching the overall statistics, as well as what we’re all seeing with our own eyes. The 58.7 average PFF grade ranks 121st nationally out of 131 FBS teams, below the likes of Iowa, ODU, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech. Virginia had four offense grades below 70 last season, all losses. This season, all of UVa’s performances on offense have graded out below 70, including the wins, and with a pair of games with grades under 50 (Syracuse and Illinois).
We’ll get into the individual categories in a moment, but it’s clear that there isn’t one specific problem on offense to fix. Or at least, that’s what the PFF data is telling us.
In individual games, position groups put up what I would call a passing grade, and then they’d have twice as many poor performances as well. Each game has had its own problems, and corrections are needed across the board heading into the bye week.
Passing Game: 56.0
Change from 2021:-31.4
Best Game:Louisville (76.2)
Worst Game:Illinois (29.5)
While all areas need improvement, the passing game has been the biggest disappointment through the first half of the 2022 season. Virginia’s production and PFF grade have dropped off dramatically, and Tony Elliott’s “this isn’t last year” comment after Saturday’s loss to Louisville couldn’t be more right.
Brennan Armstrong’s passing efficiency has tanked in the first half of the season and it’s fair to wonder whether he will be able to pull out of this. Armstrong has 1,354 passing yards through six games, with a 54.5 percent completion rate, and just five touchdowns against seven interceptions. He has also had fumbling issues, which won’t show up in the passing game grade. Armstrong’s big-time throw ratio has dropped by nearly half. He has also had more passes batted down this season already, seven, than he did all of last season.
If fans are looking for a silver lining, UVa’s best two passing game grades came in the last two weeks. But performances that graded out better haven’t led to more points on the scoreboard, as the Hoos scored just 17 points in both of those losses.
Run Game: 72.2
2021 Grade: -16.7
Best Game:Richmond (79.1)
Worst Game:Louisville (48.2)
There was a lot of talk about emphasizing the running game going into the season. And while the ground game has been far from perfect or revelatory, it is the group with the highest grade through six games on offense. When removing sack yards, Virginia has rushed 150 times for 936 yards and eight touchdowns this season, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Six fumbles is not great and ball security certainly needs work, but five of those drops belong to the quarterback.
Perris Jones has been the offense’s most-consistent performer, and has the highest grade for the season at 76.6. Jones is averaging 5 yards per carry, but has just over 10 carries per game. Perhaps that number needs to go up as the season moves along. Jones also has nine runs of 10 or more yards, and five runs for 15 plus, demonstrating his ability to hit big plays from time to time. Freshman Xavier Brown has also shown some potential, rushing 28 times for 136 yards (4.9 per carry) but he has had limited work of late.
It’s difficult to grade UVa’s running game performance against what we saw a year ago, because the previous staff did so little on the ground. The grade was much higher but the sample size is smaller. UVa has clearly had more consistent success on the ground than through the air, with the exception of the rough effort against Louisville. We’ll see if UVa tries to run the ball even more in the second half of the season.
Receiving: 56.5
2021 Grade:-24.0
Best Game:Richmond (63.9)
Worst Game:Syracuse (52.2)
While Armstrong hasn’t played well this fall, his receivers haven’t given him much help. After posting a team grade above 80 last season, the receivers are grading out in the 50s this year. The best receiving grade of the season came in the opener against Richmond and was just 63.9, meaning every other position group has had a better game than their high watermark.
The drops have been a consistent problem throughout the season. UVa’s receivers have dropped 22 passes and are on pace to far surpass their total from last season. Dontayvion Wicks has a drop rate of 24.2, and Lavel Davis, Billy Kemp, and Keytaon Thompson have also dropped at least 16 percent of their passes. The receivers are averaging the exact same number of yards after the catch per reception as last season at 5.1 yards, but with the total number of catches way down, so too are the receiving yards.
The receivers simply don’t seem to be winning enough to help the offense get out of the rut they are in, or the quarterback isn’t finding them when they are. Regardless, UVa needs a lot more from it’s receivers outside of Thompson, who has been decent, if they are going to turn a corner.
Pass Blocking: 41.6
Change from 2021:-30.6
Best Game:Old Dominion (69.8)
Worst Game:Illinois (24.8)
With such turnover on the offensive line, some growing pains were expected. And to be honest, the offensive line has had some rough moments but haven’t been the unit that is consistently holding the offense back. Virginia’s line has allowed 93 pressures in total, and 57 in true passing sets. Armstrong has been hurried 75 times in six games, and has been sacked 19 times. Though according to the PFF data, only nine of those sacks are credited to the pass protection. Sometimes, PFF data will separate out scrambles or sacks that are the fault of the quarterback.
Derek Devine has by far the highest pass blocking grade of the linemen at 80.7. Logan Taylor, Ty Furnish, and McKale Boley all have grades in the 30s, as does tight end Sackett Wood.
Run Blocking: 62.4
2021 Grade:-13.7
Best Game:Old Dominion (68.7)
Worst Game:Illinois (48.4)
Virginia has had more success in run blocking, posting a 62.4 grade on the season. And some of the linemen that have struggled to pass protect have some of the better run-blocking grades. Taylor has a run block grade of 75.7, the highest of the regular starters on the line (Noah Josey has an 87.1 grade on 18 snaps).
UVa’s offensive linemen aren’t blowing defenders off the ball on running plays, but it seems that they’re doing an okay job. There is room to grow here, but the pass protection is a much bigger threat to the offense’s success (or lack thereof) with six games remaining.
Key Grades:
Brennan Armstrong: 56.3
Perris Jones: 76.6
Mike Hollins: 61.6
Keytaon Thompson: 72.6
Dontayvion Wicks: 57.3
Lavel Davis: 57.3
Billy Kemp: 58.4
Logan Taylor: 52.9
Ty Furnish: 47.6
Grant Micsh: 43.6
Jestus Johnson: 60.9
John Paul Flores: 59.9
Jonathan Leech: 43.6
Derek Devine: 61.9
