Missed Opportunities: Breaking down how miscues cost UVa

Virginia survived a scare from Old Dominion on Saturday, winning on a chip-shot field goal on the game’s final play. Picking up the victory is the ultimate aim but Cavalier fans certainly had more heartburn than they’d hoped heading into the contest. And while UVa is still very much a work-in-progress on the offensive side of the ball, the Wahoos also played a bit better than the score indicates. They had three empty red zone trips and scored 16 points despite moving the ball efficiently, averaging better than 6 yards per play, 5 yards per rush and 14 yards per completion.

Saturday’s win was a nailbiter, but it didn’t have to be. So today, we’re taking a look back at the win over the Monarchs and breaking down all of the points the Cavaliers left on the table.

Missed Opportunity No. 1: Brennan Armstrong incomplete to Dontayvion Wicks at the ODU 40

Drive Result: Punt, 0 points

Points Missed: 3 or 7

Score: UVa 0, ODU 0,10:23 1st Quarter

On the surface, this doesn’t necessarily look like guaranteed points given the scenario. There’s no such thing as guaranteed points, of course, but UVa certainly had a chance to take the lead on its opening drive and weren’t able to convert. The Hoos started with back-to-back incomplete passes downfield to Wicks before finding some success on the ground and moving into Monarch territory. They ultimately had 3rd and 10 at the ODU 40, needing a conversion to avoid a punt. Armstrong found Wicks open down the left sideline in a hole in zone coverage and delivered a nice ball that hit Wicks right in the hands but was dropped. If caught, UVa has 1st and 10 at the ODU 25 or better. Wicks (and other receivers) struggled with drops early in the game, but did pick it up as the game wore on. Still, Virginia’s passing game had a chance to set the tone and help the offense down the field for an opening drive, and the drop proved costly. UVa ultimately punted and ODU took over at it own 10.

Missed Opportunity No. 2: Failure to score TD from ODU 4

Drive Result: Field Goal, 3 points

Points Missed: 4

Score: UVa 10, ODU 0; 10:23, 2nd Quarter

UVa did score on its second drive, with Mike Hollins getting pushed into the end zone (by Armstrong, no less) to give the Cavaliers an early 7-0 lead. After a stop, UVa got the ball back deep in its own territory and got shut down, but got a fortuitous bounce on special teams when Daniel Sparks’ punt bounced off a Monarch and was recovered by Perris Jones at the ODU 49-yard line. Virginia then picked up 15 on an ODU personal foul, and Armstrong connected with Wicks for 25 yards down to the 4. With three plays to score from there, UVa set itself back with a sack on 1st and Goal, setting up 2nd and Goal from the 14. UVa got six yards on 2nd down but Armstrong threw incomplete to Hollins in the flat on 3rd and Goal, setting up a 26-yard field goal from Brendan Farrell.

UVa did walk away with points here, and technically converted a red-zone opportunity. But not all red-zone opportunities are created equal. When you have 1st and Goal at the 4, you have to find a way to punch that in and take a 14-0 lead. The offensive line had a pretty good day overall but this particular play cost the Cavaliers a shot to put the Monarchs in an even bigger hole in the 2nd quarter.

Missed Opportunity No. 3: Hollins’ fumble on the ODU 4

Drive Result: Fumble lost, 0 points

Points Missed: 3 or 7

Score: UVa 10, ODU 0; 4:14, 2nd Quarter

UVa’s defense forced a three-and-out after the field goal and the Hoos were in good shape. They subsequently went on one of their best drives of the day, but again, it ended in a missed opportunity. They started at their own 17 and quickly got near midfield on a couple of big pass plays, one to Wicks and another to Grant Misch. Armstrong shook off a 15-yard penalty from John Paul Flores with a 17-yard gain on 3rd and 16, and a couple of plays later, the Hoos had 3rd and 2 at the 7. Hollins took the handoff from Armstrong and picked up 1st-down yardage, but then fumbled on contact, recovered by the Monarchs. If Hollins doesn’t fumble there, UVa again has 1st and Goal from the 4. Instead, The Cavaliers came away empty on a very promising drive.

Missed Opportunity No. 4: Armstrong fumble on the ODU 36

Drive Result: Fumble lost, 0 points

Points Missed: 3 or 7

Score: UVa 10, ODU 0; 0:51, 2nd Quarter

Off of the fumble, ODU got one 1st down and had to punt with just over two minutes left in the half. UVa would take over at its own 34 with plenty of time to go down and extend the lead, possibly to three scores, before halftime. Armstrong hit Wicks for a 9-yard gain, and then the pair connected again for eight more. On 2nd and 2 from the ODU 42 with about a minute to play, Armstrong tried to extend a run left, and again, UVa put the ball on the turf. And again ODU recovered, falling on the ball at the 36. Armstrong had already picked up the 1st down and got hit at the ODU 38, where UVa would’ve had the ball, still with plenty of time to score. Virginia’s offense had put together a few nice drives in a row and there’s no real indication that the Cavaliers couldn’t have gotten at least enough yards to try a field goal before half, and certainly had enough time to get in the end zone if they hit a few decent plays.

This play came outside of the red zone, and it actually proved to be one of the more damaging plays of the game. Armstrong’s fumble left ODU with the ball and decent enough field position. The Monarchs had yet to score and had only crossed midfield once but were able to get into their hurry-up offense and marched down the field and scored their first touchdown of the game in just 32 seconds. If that fumble doesn’t happen, or even if it happened a play later or a few yards further down the field, perhaps UVa goes into halftime up 10-0. So not only did this play take potential points off the board for Virginia, it set up ODU for one of just two scoring drives on the day.

Missed Opportunity No. 5: Armstrong fumble on the ODU 4

Drive Result: Fumble lost, 0 points

Points Missed: 3 or 7

Score: UVa 10, ODU 7; 10:09 3rd Quarter

Virginia’s defense got a big stop out of the locker room, forcing an ODU punt after allowing the Monarchs to cross the 50. UVa took over after a touchback and despite being backed up on 3rd and 19 from their own 11, Armstrong made a big 45-yard throw to Keytaon Thompson to keep the drive moving. Another 24 yards to Wicks was followed by 16 more to Misch, and UVa found itself 1st and Goal at the 4 again. UVa’s first play of the goal-to-go drive didn’t go well, with freshman running back Xavier Brown losing a pair of yards. The Cavaliers were still in good position to score with 2nd and Goal from the 6, but Armstrong got blown up by a blitz off the edge while attempting a pass and fumbled. And once again, the Monarchs jumped on it and the play eventually ended at the ODU 26. This play was a disaster, again striking points off the board from inside the 10. And UVa is actually lucky that ODU’s Shawn Asbury lost his balance on the recovery because he had nothing but green space in front of him and may have ultimately scored.

Missed Opportunity No. 6: Failure to score TD from ODU 9

Drive Result: Field Goal, 3 points

Points Missed: 4

Score: UVa 13, ODU 7; 8:37 4th Quarter

Despite all of these issues, UVa still led into the 4th quarter. The Hoos started a drive with 13:46 to play in good field position after an Ethan Davies punt return to the UVa 42 and had a chance to all but put the game away. Brown had a few nice runs and Armstrong converted a 4th and 1 with a 6-yard gain on the ground. After another Brown run for 12 yards, UVa had 1st and 10 from the ODU 12-yard line. On 2nd and 7 from the 9, Derek Devine was called for holding on a 3-yard gain from Brown that would’ve had UVa in 3rd and 4 from the 6. Instead, the Cavaliers got backed up to the ODU 19 in 2nd and 17, and after a decent gain from Armstrong, the QB threw incomplete to Thompson on 3rd and 10 from the 12. Again Farrell was called upon to get the Cavaliers on the board, and he delivered with another 30-yard chip shot.

UVa did a nice job on this drive running some clock and adding to the lead. But as they would find out a few minutes later, three points simply wasn’t enough and again it felt like the Hoos left points on the table. The most-costly play was the holding penalty from Devine that all but derailed the drive, and perhaps kept the Cavaliers out of the end zone.

Missed Opportunity No. 7: Failure to score from ODU 18

Drive Result: Missed Field Goal, 0 points

Points Missed: 3 or 7

Score: UVa 13, ODU 7; 3:07 4th Quarter

Finally, we’ve made it to the last drive where UVa left points on the table and hurt itself (we’re not counting the final drive when they settled for three on purpose). Despite only being up six, UVa’s defense again stood up and forced an ODU punt on 4th and 10 from the 25. UVa took over at its own 31 and a few nice pass plays to Thompson and Lavel Davis coupled with a 17-yard run for Brown set UVa up at the ODU 23. Virginia got it to 2nd and 7 from the 20, and ultimately 3rd and 5 from the 18. Armstrong’s pass to Davis for a touchdown wasn’t brought down in bounds by the receiver, and UVa trotted out the kicking unit again. And this time, Farrell’s 36-yard attempt was no good.

This was a bit of a disaster for the Cavaliers, keeping ODU in a one-score game with 3:07 to play. Points on this drive would have all but ended the game, guaranteeing the Cavaliers a chance to come out of a slugfest with a win despite leaving points out there. Instead, the defense had to make a stop. Ultimately they didn’t, and the offense rose to the challenge and gave Farrell a chance for redemption.

On these seven sequences, between 20 and 43 points were left on the table. I say 20 on the low end because Armstrong’s late second-quarter fumble came outside of field-goal range. Wicks’ drop on the opening drive would’ve put UVa at the 25, not exactly chip-shot territory but certainly within striking distance, so we’re adding those potential three points to the low end of the total here, but I guess technically you could argue it down to 17.

Either way, in these seven opportunities UVa had five empty possessions. Three came from fumbles, all in ODU territory, two inside the 10. With fumbles at the ODU 4- and 6-yard line, one on a play that would have set up 1st and Goal and the other coming on 2nd and Goal, means that UVa realistically threw away 14 points here. The other fumble killed a promising drive to score before half, and gave ODU a chance to score themselves. The final empty possession came on a missed field goal from 36 yards out.

The lesson here is that, despite Farrell’s last-second winner, the Cavaliers can’t yet depend on their kicking game to put points on the board. Farrell has already missed an extra point and a short field goal against Illinois, and he went wide again from inside 40 yards in the fourth quarter. Luckily he came up big when it counted, but UVa’s offense needs to finish drives in the end zone.

Virginia also had two possessions where the Cavaliers kicked field goals instead of scoring touchdowns. Keep in mind that this does not count the final drive of the game when Farrell won it, but if he had missed we’d have added that possession here as well. On both of the successful field-goal drives, they had the ball inside the ODU 10; once they had it at the ODU 4 on a 1st and Goal, and then 2nd and 7 from the 9-yard line. Negative plays killed both opportunities, with a sack on the first such drive and a holding penalty on the other. Luckily Farrell got points on the board, but settling for three (or worse) in this situations isn’t going to cut it in ACC play.

It’s clear from looking at these numbers that the game could have played out very differently if the Hoos could have just finished off a few of these chances.

Let’s just take away the two fumbles in the red zone and turn those into touchdowns. If UVa does that, it 17-0 late in the first half and then ODU has to start pressing more on offense. And even if UVa goes into halftime up 10-7 and the Hoos find the end zone on the drive that ended in the sack fumble early in the 3rd, they would have wrestled back some momentum and gone up 17-7. Virginia also had chances to put the game further out of reach later on, settling for three twice, making one and missing the other. If just one of those two drives is a touchdown, UVa has 17 points, and ODU is probably done for at that point.

There is a world where UVa scores about 50 points on Saturday. That would have required the Wahoos to do way more right than most would expect them to in a normal football game but even if we go on the low end of points left on the board, they should’ve scored in the mid 30’s or so, more than enough to win this game comfortably.

In rewatching the game and reviewing the stats, it’s clear that UVa’s offense made some significant strides from the loss to Illinois. UVa moved the ball well despite some errors and although they still have a lot of work to do, the Hoos had a balanced attack that amounted over 500 yards of offense and seven red-zone trips on the day. Execution kept UVa from putting this game away, and it seems that the players knew that and were frustrated by it afterwards. The good news is that these issues are correctable. Ultimately, a win like this is somehow more encouraging than a 16-14 win where an offense doesn’t move the ball much or get opportunities to score. If nothing else, UVa’s offense showed that it could move the ball well against ODU and wasn’t nearly as clunky as the week prior.

If Virginia can move the ball like this and then take care of it, the offense can take some big steps forward. If not, then it will continue to leave points on the table.

And starting on Friday against Syracuse, leaving points on the table will likely prove more devastating than it was against an overmatched Old Dominion team on Saturday.

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