I had a texter on Monday to my radio show point out the wild times we live in that Liberty and James Madison are the top two programs in the state when usually it’s the squads out of the ACC. Sad times for UVa and Virginia Tech as we continue on with the football slate.
Louisville @ UVa (+3.5) O/U 51: I’m sorry, but I can’t back the Hoos until they change the offense and just let Brennan Armstrong do his thing. I knew that last Saturday was going to go badly when they didn’t go for it on the 4th and 3 early in the first quarter and instead used Armstrong as the punter. I can’t blame the defense for last week at least early on because they were on the field so much.
Louisville’s offense has picked up, but their defense was just thrashed by a bad Boston College team that has literally one weapon overall. The last two years, UVa has been a home underdog just twice, losing 28-3 to Notre Dame last year while beating UNC 44-41 in 2020. Louisville is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite under Scott Satterfield. Neither of these teams are trustworthy so pass.
Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh (-14.5) O/U 43.5: I feel like I can copy and paste past writeups for the Hokies as it’s the same thing over and over again. The offense is terrible and the defense is on the field too much. The weirdest part of this season is that I can’t get an accurate grip on how good of coaches Brent Pry and his staff are because he’s got so little talent to work with. Pitt, meanwhile, somehow lost to Georgia Tech at home after they fired Geoff Collins. The Panthers defense has been an issue, but they’ve been home most of the year and that’s got to help. Tech’s last two trips to Pittsburgh have seen them lose 47-14 and 52-22 and there’s a chance it could be that ugly once again. The Hokies barely scored against UNC’s awful defense so why will they do it here. Give me the Virginia Tech team total under once again.
Duke (-3) @ Georgia Tech O/U 53: The big question here is if the Georgia Tech momentum continues from last week or was it a one week thing after the school fired their head coach. The defense worked and Jeff Sims was able to be fantastic for the offense. The Yellow Jackets defense also showed up for the second straight week and they’ll need to once again with how well Duke’s offense is playing. The Blue Devils are scoring on everyone, but much like last week, I feel like their defense is highly exploitable. Give me the Georgia Tech team total over here.
Florida State @ NC State (-3.5) O/U 52: The big question here is how focused is NC State after losing to Clemson last week in a huge Atlantic division battle? Last year the Wolfpack knocked off the Tigers and laid an egg in a seven-point win over Louisiana Tech as an 18-point favorite the next week. They can’t afford to have a letdown because Florida State is legit. The Seminoles are coming off their first loss of the season at home against Wake Forest as the Demon Deacons overcame their own potential letdown after a loss to Clemson. The short line tells me Vegas thinks NC State will be hungover.
North Carolina @ Miami (-4) O/U 66: High total for this one as Miami had two weeks to digest a 45-31 loss at home to Middle Tennessee. No word on whether or not they were trying to reclaim some of the NIL money paid out after the team’s 2-2 start. The Canes offense presumably is healthier after their WR group sustained several injuries. Tyler Van Dyke has not lived up to the preseason hype that he got either. Meanwhile, UNC has shown that they don’t miss Sam Howell after the hot start the offense has gotten off to. The defense has been bad for the most part, but it doesn’t matter when you are scoring 30+ every night. I think that Miami comes out of the bye focused and ready. Homefield advantage won’t make much of a difference, but I think the Canes pick up the W.
Matt is the host of Border to Border from 3-4pm ET on 106.1 FM out of Richmond Virginia. He's a sports handicapper on Sportsmemo (Matt Josephs Betting Picks, Futures, & Predictions | Sportsmemo) and writes articles for Athlon Sports (Articles by Matt Josephs (Mid Major Matt) - AthlonSports.com | Expert Predictions, Picks, and Previews)
