It’s the final week of the ACC regular season and the Coastal is on the line as Virginia hosts Virginia Tech. There’s a lot of gambling angles to this one that I will touch on in this article and at the end, I’ll close things out with a pick.

Line History:

The Circa out of Las Vegas, which is traditionally the first sportsbook with the lines, had this game as a pick’em with an over/under of 49. A lot of the online books had UVa as a slight favorite in this one but all of those lines quickly changed. Right now I’m seeing some Virginia Tech -3’s and the total is 47.5 or 48.

Recent Series History:

2018 — Hokies win 34-31 (Line was UVa -5.5 O/U of 49.5)

2017 — Hokies win 10-0 (Line was VT -6.5 O/U of 48)

2016 — Hokies win 52-10 (Line was VT -19 O/U 53.5)

2015 — Hokies win 23-20 (Line was UVa -3.5 O/U 47.5)

2014 — Hokies win 24-20 (Line was VT -2 O/U 38.5)

ATS and Total Trends of Interest:

Virginia Tech:

-- 3-5 ATS as a road favorite the last three seasons (5-3 straight up)

-- 7-7 ATS on the road the last three seasons (3-1 in 2019)

-- Tech has gone under in 19 of their last 35 games including five of nine lined games this year.

Virginia:

-- UVa is 20-16-1 ATS in their last 37 lined games (5-5-1 this season)

-- UVa has been a home underdog of 7 points or less four times the last three years (2-2 straight up)

-- UVa has gone over in seven of their 11 contests this season including five of six at home.

Thoughts and Prediction:

This game has all the makings of a classic as a lot of things are on the line. I’d argue that the winner could have the ACC Coach of the Year and probably a berth in the Orange Bowl. Virginia has won three straight and four of its last five entering this one. The offense has scored 195 points over that span, but they’ve also given up 128 as well. You don’t need me to tell you about the season so I’ll just head over to the opponent.

Virginia Tech’s season was left for dead back on September 27th when the Hokies were embarrassed at home by Duke. Since then they have reeled off six wins including underdog victories over Miami, North Carolina, and Wake Forest. Arguably, they should have won in South Bend against Notre Dame. Hendon Hooker has been very efficient behind center and the young defense is coming into their own with shutouts in the last two weeks. I’ve mentioned it here time and time again that they had pieces that just needed time and Bud Foster has cooked up some great game plans.

Last year I thought the streak was going to end, then overtime occurred and the Hokies were victorious. I have to think it’s in the Hoos heads right now and actually wonder if all the pressure in the matchup is on them. They were picked by many (including me) to win the Coastal and end the losing skid in the series. UVa has the better quarterback and the better front seven although that gap is closing. The injuries in the secondary concern me because Tech’s WR group is really good.

The thing is, VT doesn’t want to throw it 30-35 times to take advantage of it. When it comes down to it, I think the three points are too much. I’ve said on the air here in Richmond that I can’t pick the Hoos in this game until they actually win and I think you’d agree that’s pretty fair. I think Bryce Perkins has a pair of touchdown passes, but also a key interception late. UVa will harass Hooker into a few rough sequences. Still, Tech gets the 23-21 win despite UVa being the better team.

Matt Josephs is on ESPN Radio in Richmond from 3-4 p.m. EST weekdays and 11-Noon on Saturdays. You can find his picks and thoughts on Sportsmemo.com at https://www.sportsmemo.com/profile/matt-josephs.