Published Oct 10, 2019
Odds and Ends: Breaking down the lines in Week 7 in the ACC
Matt Josephs
Special to CavsCorner.com

A slate of intriguing matchups are up this weekend, starting tonight. And a bunch of teams are coming off a bye week looking to make some noise as conference season takes full effect.

So, let's take a look at Week 7 in the ACC:


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No. 20 UVa at Miami (-1)

The weird ACC round-robin continues with Miami losing to Virginia Tech after the Hokies got undressed by Duke who lost at home to Pittsburgh. Go figure anyone out right now. As Brad said on Twitter, it was a good week for the Hoos to be off. Miami’s home as the Canes continue a five-game homestand with the next opponent being the Wahoos, who many figured would have been favored in this one. Manny Diaz has announced that he’ll go with N’Kosi Perry since Jarren Williams (who was awful last week) is dealing with a shoulder injury. This team has three single-digit losses and victories over Bethune Cookman and Central Michigan. The Hoos, meanwhile, lost their first contest two weeks ago 35-20 at Notre Dame. They got very little from the ground game and Bryce Perkins continued to throw interceptions. The week off should help them focus up. Miami lost to UVa last year 16-13 as seven-point favorites in Charlottesville. The last time these two played in Miami Gardens was 2017 when the then No. 2-ranked Canes won 44-28. With the loss to Tech, Miami fell to 11-19-1 against the spread in the last three seasons. I want to take UVa in this one. I think everyone wants to take UVa in this one, but why are the Hoos not favored? Is Vegas trying to trap us with this line? Watch the line movement of this one as I think eventually we may see the Cavs as a favorite.


Rhode Island at Virginia Tech (-24)

The weird part of last week’s win for Tech is that it would have been REALLY impressive if the Hokies didn’t let the Canes tie the thing up. Instead it was just simply an impressive win because we still have to give them credit for going on the road when no one outside of Blacksburg thought they’d win. Hendon Hooker moved the ball on the ground but he’s still really raw as a passer. The defense still worries me, though. I do like Caleb Farley and Chamarri Conner (I am allowed to say something nice about VT on here, right?). URI is 1-4 on the season, but lost by four to Stony Brook, three to New Hampshire, eight to Delaware and by 21 to FBS Ohio. This will be their fourth road game of the season. I don’t think I can take the Hokies in this one because it’s a dreaded sandwich game with UNC on deck meaning a whole lot more to the season. I think we could see them run a very tight playbook with Hooker behind center. This one feels like a going through the motions type game.


Louisville at No. 19 Wake Forest (-6.5)

Wake Forest is 5-0 and it feels really weird. The Deacs are averaging more than 500 yards per game while putting up 35.8 points per contest. They are coming off their bye week after narrowly escaping Chestnut Hill with a 27-24. This team has won two other games by a single score and I don’t know what that says about them. Jamie Newman is a really solid quarterback who has a ton of weapons. Louisville, meanwhile, is 3-2 with wins over Eastern, Western Kentucky, and Boston College. The Cards have been running it really well with their group of backs and showed a bit of a passing attack last week as well. The defense is still really leaky with two teams putting up more than 200 yards on the ground and more than 300 yards through the air. Last year these two played a 56-35 game in Louisville. The Cardinals are a hideous underdog covering just three of their last 13, winning just one of those outright. The over might be worth a look here.


Florida State at No. 2 Clemson (-26.5)

This matchup used to get top billing on a college football weekend but now it’s kinda in the background. FSU has won two straight and probably wished the bye hadn’t come last week. The offense has worked well in home wins over Louisville and NC State with the passing attack coming alive. The defense has made stops too, holding the Pack and Cardinals to 37 total points. The Tigers are 5-0 and had two weeks to hear about how vulnerable they were after nearly losing in Chapel Hill. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t had the greatest season so far this year so you know they’ll be looking to get him back on track. It’s pretty funny to look back at the Futures wagers that had “Tua/Trevor vs. the World.” The Clemson defense is hard to move on: They gave up 157 yards rushing in Week 1 to Georgia Tech and 236 yards passing to Texas A&M in Week 2. Other than that, they’ve been a brick wall. The Tigers have won this matchup the last two years 59-10 on the road and 31-14 at home. Clemson has been a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points seven times the last three seasons covering just two of those contests. They are actually only 8-8-1 ATS the last three years. Lean to the under here even though it’s scary as Clemson is due to explode on someone.


Georgia Tech at Duke (-17.5)

Umm, Duke, what’s up? I didn’t think you’d lose to Pittsburgh at home after the way you looked against Virginia Tech last week. The Blue Devils have actually been a hideous favorite the past three years, covering just six of 16 contests in that situation. Neither side in that game put up glossy offensive stats despite the 33-30 score. The perfect way to cure what ails you is for Georgia Tech to come to town. The Jackets’ only win came in Week 2 14-10 over South Florida. Since then they lost 27-24 to The Citadel, 24-2 to Temple, and 38-22 to UNC as GT allowed almost 600 yards of offense to the Heels down in Atlanta. I always thought that Geoff Collins’ bunch was going to be the worst in the league and they’ve pretty much confirmed that. The Jackets are 12-15 against the spread the last three seasons. If you can figure out the Blue Devils then tell me because this game won’t be on my card.



Matt Josephs is on ESPN Radio in Richmond from 3-4 p.m. EST weekdays and 11-Noon on Saturdays. You can find his picks and thoughts on Sportsmemo.com at https://www.sportsmemo.com/profile/matt-josephs.