Published Oct 17, 2019
Odds and Ends: Breaking down the lines in Week 8 in the ACC
Matt Josephs
Special to CavsCorner.com

Another week, another good slate of matchups are on the docket. And as usual, the Coastal Division is on the verge of being a complete mess with some big ones in that race set for this weekend.

So, let’s take a look at Week 8 in the ACC:


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Duke at UVa (-3.5)

I warned everyone that the UVa line stunk to the heavens and it’s another reminder why everything is just nicer in Vegas. The loss of Bryce Hall is absolutely huge to the defense, although the front seven is still really nasty and will put pressure on almost anyone. My other concern is with Bryce Perkins taking all these hits in the pocket and running the ball too many times. The Hoos have to use more max protect to keep him upright so Hasise Dubois and Joe Reed can win their one-on-one battles. They are too good not to be able to get open on their cornerbacks. Duke, meanwhile, bounced back last week in a 41-23 win over Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils lost a bit of a head scratcher to Pittsburgh two weeks ago but have gone over in five straight games since the 42-3 loss to Alabama. Last year the Hoos went down to Durham and won 28-14. Duke is 11-3-1 against the spread in its last 15 games as a road underdog. I want to take them plus the points, but I’m going to wait and see if the line moves. I’m a big Cutcliffe guy.


UNC (-3.5) at Virginia Tech 

The Hokies are 4-2 after a workmanlike 34-17 win over Rhode Island last weekend. The offense worked against an FCS level team and Hendon Hooker is getting more comfortable it seems. The defense held their second straight opponent to less than 100 yards rushing but was lit up through the air. Reggie Floyd is out for the first half of this one after a targeting ejection in the second half last Saturday. UNC, meanwhile, has lost three of its last four but is coming off a bye week after a 38-22 win over Georgia Tech. Sam Howell should be able to throw for whatever he wants here, especially in the first half. It’s the Heel defense that is semi-exploitable as they’ve allowed 20 or more in every game. Tech has been a home underdog seven times the last three seasons, winning three of them outright while covering the spread just once. This game won’t be on my card Saturday. I don’t trust the Hokies and I’m not a big fan of the Heels either.


Georgia Tech at Miami (-17.5)

The common thread from the two games above is that both Carolina and Duke’s latest victories were against Georgia Tech. The Jackets are averaging just 309 yards per game and 16.5 points per contest. They are 0-5-1 against the spread and really don’t have any redeeming qualities. The question is can you trust Miami, which has already failed to cover against Central Michigan and Virginia Tech in games the Canes should have won or won by a lot more. They were 30.5-point faves against the Chippewas and won 17-12. Masked in the win over UVa was the fact that they still can’t run the ball well and the offensive line is atrocious. The defense continues to be spectacular though for The U, which is 12-19-1 against the spread in its last 32 overall. The Hurricanes should win this game easily but do you want to trust them to cover this large number? They’ve only covered once the last three years as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.


Clemson (-24) at Louisville

The Tigers blasted Florida State last week in a 45-14 win that saw them rack up 320 yards on the ground. It’s almost like they didn’t enjoy hearing for two weeks that they nearly lost to North Carolina. The defense held the Seminoles to 253 yards of offense as well so that side of the ball continues to be strong. On the other hand, Louisville has to be feeling great after its road win against Wake Forest 62-59 last week. The Cards scored 103 points the last two weeks but have also allowed 98. The defense doesn’t stop the run very well and has allowed at least 300 passing yards the last three weeks of ACC play. Clemson massacred these guys last year 77-16 at home as a 39-point favorite but you know UL will be hyped for this one. The Tigers have covered eight of their last 12 as a road favorite. I’d consider maybe a first half bet on the home team hoping that they use the adrenaline early to stick around before getting blasted.



Matt Josephs is on ESPN Radio in Richmond from 3-4 p.m. EST weekdays and 11-Noon on Saturdays. You can find his picks and thoughts on Sportsmemo.com at https://www.sportsmemo.com/profile/matt-josephs.