We are just a week or so away from the start of the UVa football season. With that, let’s take a look at Virginia’s season win total, which has been set at seven on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
There is some value on the over as it’s EVEN money ($100 gets you $100). The juice was actually higher earlier in the summer but money has come in on the Cavaliers being successful, which is bringing that number down.
When breaking down a schedule, you need to do it in three parts which are the non-conference slate, the home conference games, and the road ones as well. We’re also looking for potential scheduling spots and look-ahead factors.
With that, let’s look at where the value may be on UVa’s seven-win total.
9/3 vs. Richmond — Bronco Mendenhall’s tenure as head coach of the Hoos began with a 37-20 loss back on September 3rd, 2016 against these same Spiders. Most likely Tony Elliott’s time in Charlottesville will start with a victory against them. Richmond’s offense will have a distinct VMI feel with the Keydets former QB and top WR joining the program. UR’s defense will struggle trying to slow down UVa’s aerial attack in this one. Give me a win here and a 1-0 start.
9/10 @ Illinois — The Illini are in Year 2 under Bret Bielema as they try to become bowl eligible. The team will have had two games under their belt by kickoff as they host Wyoming in Week 0 before traveling to Indiana on 9/2. That’ll give Tommy DeVito some time to get acclimated to the offense after transferring in from Syracuse. This is a toss-up game as I think UVa is better but it’s the first road trip of the season. Last year the Hoos went 2-3 outside of Scott Stadium. Give me a loss here and a 1-1 record.
9/17 vs. ODU — These two have only played once before and that was a 28-17 game back in 2019. This will be ODU’s third game after hosting Virginia Tech in Week 1 and traveling to East Carolina in Week 2. I actually think the Monarchs will be a bit of a pest in Sun Belt play with 17 starters back but they need to figure out their quarterback situation. This team should definitely be in the mix for bowl eligibility. They won’t get the win here, though, so UVa moves to 2-1.
9/23 @ Syracuse — Conference play begins with the team unanimously picked to finish last in the ACC Atlantic. These two have not played for quite awhile and the contest is part of an early stretch of five of six games at home for the Orange. UVa’s run defense will have to be solid because Sean Tucker is one of the best RB’s in the nation and Garrett Shrader has been known to take off too, though it remains to be seen how much Robert Anae will truly run the ball. It’s a short week for the Hoos and a road contest so I’ll give them a loss making the record 2-2.
10/1 @ Duke — No more Coach Cutcliffe for the Blue Devils who turn to Mike Elko to take over the program. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of record Duke has after its non-conference schedule which features home games against Temple and North Carolina A&T. The team doesn’t have a lot of returning starters and is learning a new system so I’m not expecting a lot of success from them. The Hoos bounce back and win this one rather easily moving to 3-2.
10/8 vs. Louisville — I don’t know what to think of the Cardinals in 2022. Malik Cunningham is one of the most underrated signal callers in the conference and possibly America. Despite being on opposite sides of the conference, these two have obviously seen plenty of each other over the years. Getting Tiyon Evans from Tennessee is huge for the Louisville backfield so this should be another high scoring game. Since it’s home though, I’ll give it to the Cavaliers who enter the bye week 4-2.
10/20 @ Georgia Tech — Short and sweet, if the Hoos can’t win this game, they should close up shop. The Yellow Jackets are bad and Geoff Collins won’t be their head coach much longer. It’s a win for the Cavaliers and a 5-2 start.
10/29 vs. Miami - Stop me if you’ve heard this before but there’s a lot of preseason hype surrounding Miami and their potential. There are some who think Tyler Van Dyke could have an outside shot at the Heisman as well. Now, there’s plenty of reason to believe things could be changing in Coral Gables with Mario Cristobal at the helm, but remember this is a Canes team that lost to UVa last year at home 30-28 as a five-point favorite. The home team has won eight of the last 10 in this series. I think that continues here as I’m not buying the Canes defense. 6-2.
11/5 vs. North Carolina - Game 2 of four straight in Charlottesville and the big decision is whether or not the Hoos will lose this one or the next one against Pittsburgh. The Heels defense should be pretty strong but their offense could struggle without Sam Howell. They will be in the midst of their own tough stretch of games coming off a home tilt with Pittsburgh and a road game against Wake Forest up next. I think UVa wins here so make the record 7-2.
11/12 vs. Pittsburgh - The Panthers lost their own signal caller to the NFL, but did mange to replace him with USC transfer Kedon Slovis. Slovis was alright for the Trojans and may be a good fit for this offense as well. Pittsburgh has won five of the last six in this series and I think the combination of their solid offense (even without Jordan Addison) and real good defense will help them get the win here. The Hoos fall to 7-3 overall.
11/19 vs. Coastal Carolina - This could be a fun one if Grayson McCall is healthy for the Chanticleers. The signal caller has a couple of wins over Power 5 schools recently although they came against Kansas, who is barely a D1 program. The problem for Coastal is its defense has only three starters back and the secondary could be one of its weaknesses. UVa is the better team here with the only worry being that the Hoos look ahead to the rivalry game to close things out and aren’t focused for this one. They won’t, so the record moves to 8-3.
11/26 - @ Virginia Tech - I maintain that if you took UVa’s offense and paired it with Tech’s defense, you’d have a 10-win team. For the first time in years it feels like the Hokies have a solid quarterback but very little for him to work with. With these two being pretty close to equal, injuries will determine this one I feel like. Since it’s in Blacksburg and could be for bowl eligibility for the Hokies, sorry reader, but I’m taking Tech to win the game. UVA’s regular season record is 8-4.
Final thoughts:
These are my thoughts on the season for the Cavaliers. Even if I give a win to the team in the rivalry game at the end of the season, they could very easily lose to Miami or Louisville. Seven is a great number from the books, but I like the over.
Matt is the host of Border to Border from 3-4pm ET on 106.1 FM out of Richmond Virginia. He's a sports handicapper on Sportsmemo (Matt Josephs Betting Picks, Futures, & Predictions | Sportsmemo) and writes articles for Athlon Sports (Articles by Matt Josephs (Mid Major Matt) - AthlonSports.com | Expert Predictions, Picks, and Previews)
