Three Things We Know
1. UVa’s departures were close to what everyone expected going into the offseason.
There was a period of time leading into and after the end of the season where it was unclear exactly how many Wahoos would be leaving the program and how many spots UVa would have open. It was known that Jake Groves, Jordan Minor and Reece Beekman were out the door, though Beekman technically could’ve reversed course and stayed if he wanted to. Ultimately he left and, as expected, Ryan Dunn declared for the NBA Draft too. The surprise, if it was one, was that Dunn decided to go into the draft process with both feet in and left no room for a return to UVa. That decision likely helped the coaching staff, as it gave them more clarity around how many spots they had open and what they would need to go after in terms of replacements.
UVa also lost two players to the transfer portal and those defections were the two most-likely to happen going into the offseason. Redshirt freshman wing Leon Bond entered the portal a few weeks after the season ended after playing sparingly in his second year with the Hoos. Guard Dante Harris left too, after playing just one season at UVa. This departure happened a bit later in the cycle as the coaching staff was clearly working to find a starting point guard, in a sense recruiting over Harris.
2. The additions are heavy on talent and experience against quality competition.
With six players out the door, UVa went and added four scholarship players from the transfer portal (and a preferred walk-on who was on scholarship at his last stop) to go with the previously signed 2024 recruiting class.
When looking at the additions of Jalen Warley, Dai Dai Ames, TJ Power, and Elijah Saunders, the players not only fill in roster gaps left by the departures but there are a number of commonalities at play as well. First, all of them have played against top-level competition and most have had team success at their previous stop. Warley has played in the ACC for three years, so UVa knows what it’s getting. Power also played at an ACC program and was part of a run to the Elite Eight. Saunders was on SDSU’s national runner-up program as a freshman and helped the Aztecs get back to the Sweet Sixteen in March. And Ames didn’t make the tournament as a freshman but played in arguably the nation’s best conference, the Big 12. Even Carter Lang played against SEC competition with the Commodores.
These additions stand in contrast to what UVa did in the portal last year. Minor came from Merrimack College, which played in the NEC, one of the lowest-ranked conferences in the country. Andrew Rohde played in the Summit League and, like Minor, played at a school transitioning to Division-I from D-II. Groves came to UVa from Oklahoma but started his career at Eastern Washington. Harris played at Georgetown, a major-conference program but one of the worst from a win-loss standpoint.
Virginia added some top-end talent to the roster as well. Power is the second-highest ranked player in the Rivals rankings (No. 22) to ever play for Bennett, and the second five-star prospect (Austin Nichols). Warley was ranked No. 38 in his class, making him one of the highest-ranked players to play for Bennett, too. And Ames was No. 66 in his, just four spots behind current Cavalier Elijah Gertrude.
It remains to be seen whether these top-end talents will produce at UVa but it’s clear that Tony Bennett will have some good ingredients to work with if nothing else.
3. The staff will have some flexibility in creating lineups.
UVa went into the offseason needing to fill a few spots, find some scoring upside, and try to maintain a quality defense. It remains to be seen whether the Wahoos did enough to make that happen in the upcoming season but they should have plenty of options when constructing a starting lineup and bench rotation.
Warley and Ames can both play point guard and both have experience playing off the ball. Warley could play 1-3 at 6-foot-7 and should be a versatile defensive option given his size, length, and experience. Power and Saunders are probably more naturally power forwards but because both have the ability to knock down outside shots, they could also play small forward. Saunders, given his athleticism, could play center in a small lineup, too.
These additions seem to line up with what UVa already has on the roster. The Hoos could play an athletic lineup that looks something like: Ames, Isaac McKneely, Warley, Saunders, and Blake Buchanan. They could play an offense-heavy, smaller lineup, like Ames, McKneely, Power, Jacob Cofie and Saunders, and so on. Rohde can play at any of the three guard spots and Taine Murray can play at the 2 or 3. And there’s more depth in the frontcourt now, too, with the additions of Power and Saunders, along with Lang, the incoming freshman Cofie, and existing Hoos Buchanan and Anthony Robinson.
Two Questions
1. Can this group fix some of the offensive woes from the 2023-24 season?
One area that many Cavalier fans wanted to see improved was the team’s shooting, and particularly the identification of other options, so defenses can’t just key on McKneely. UVa did add some capable shooters, though it didn’t add any absolutely prolific ones based on metrics. Power has the biggest upside, and is a good shooter, but had limited opportunities to show it at Duke. Saunders improved in that area, and shot just over 32 percent last year, which at least makes him a threat if he’s not the most efficient. Ames shot at the same percentage and has upside to improve there.
Warley isn’t much of a shooter but can put the ball on the floor and score. So can Ames. And even if UVa’s shooting might not be worlds better this upcoming season, there is a good chance this lineup might be better at driving and kicking which can create some better looks.
If UVa can get Power to shoot in the high 30s, Saunders to be about what he was at SDSU or a little better, Ames to get to the mid-30s, McKneely to be who he was last year and also see modest improvements from Rohde, Murray and so on, the Cavaliers could be a more diverse, harder-to-stop offense. But that’s a lot of “if’s” to account for.
2. How will the backcourt shake out with additions, departures, and a potential injury?
The frontcourt pieces seem to compliment each other and there’s confidence that they could play alongside one another and things will work themselves out. In the backcourt, though, it’s a bit more of a mystery.
One thing we do know is that McKneely can be penciled into the starting spot at the 2 or perhaps the 3 if UVa went really small, which seems unlikely given what it would do to the defense. How the point guard position plays out will be fascinating to watch. UVa’s coaches might be high on Christian Bliss after his redshirt season but they had no problem recruiting several different point guard options and ultimately taking two players that can play the position. Ames and Warley are different players and could potentially play together or could end up fighting with Bliss for minutes.
And that competition will have a knock-on effect to the rest of the guard and wing spots. If Warley and Ames (or Warley and Bliss) play together, that means fewer minutes for Rohde and Murray, and likely no minutes for incoming freshman Ishan Sharma. If Warley ends up as the primary point guard, the opposite is true, and UVa will need Rohde and Murray to play more or could use Power more at the 3.
And then there’s the injury to Gertrude, which remains a mystery and likely will for the time being. UVa now has enough depth in the backcourt to absorb Gertrude’s loss should he not be able to play but if he does end up playing, it will impact rotations and competition for playing time significantly.
One Prediction
If this group sticks together, the 2025-26 season could be UVa’s best in some time.
How the roster fits together for the upcoming season is very much TBD. Virginia often struggles more when trying to incorporate a lot of new pieces in key roles. And this year’s team will have nine players who have never played for Virginia (Ames, Warley, Sharma, Power, Saunders, Cofie, Robinson, Bliss, Lang). And many of them will be asked to play a lot.
The good news, though, is that the staff clearly added talent to the roster and now it’s about finding a way to develop them and help them hit their respective ceilings or making the determination that they’re not a fit, so they can go out and try again next spring.
But if this group can use next season to work together and improve before then running it back for the following season, there’s a chance this group could be good together.
For 2025-26, only Warley and Murray would certainly be gone. Obviously it’s likely that another transfer or two follows them out the door, which isn’t necessarily a terrible thing as long as the right players are staying. Because if they do, this group will have a lot of experience playing together heading into the 25-26 season, and the staff will be able to add two to five pieces to the roster through recruiting and the portal, that could fill any gaps and take a talented group to the next level.