The Opponent
Wake Forest (3-1, 0-1 ACC) at No. 22 Virginia (5-2, 1-0 ACC)
9 p.m., RSN
After another cancelled game this weekend, Virginia will hopefully resume play tonight when the Cavaliers are set to host Wake Forest. Their game against Virginia Tech was called off after the Wahoos faced COVID-19 issues for the second time this season, issues that should linger into tonight’s game. Tony Bennett said Monday that Virginia would be shorthanded in some capacity with a mix of staff and some players. Associated head coach Jason Williford said on his podcast Tuesday night that he and the other full-time assistants would not be on the bench and the UVa would be down two plays in the game.
Virginia’s opponent, Wake Forest, has had COVID issues of its own. The Deacs handled two sub-300 KenPom opponents (Delaware State and Longwood) to open the season in November. Then, as health issues mounted, the Demon Deacons had a bunch of games cancelled, including what was supposed to be the ACC opener against UVa in Winston-Salem. No makeup date has been announced for that game, if it will be made up at all.
Wake didn’t play a single game from November 27th until December 31st, when the Deacs returned to the floor with a 70-62 win over Catawba, a Division-II team. They finally did get their ACC season underway on Sunday, dropping a 70-54 decision to Georgia Tech.
It’s been a tumultuous start to the Steve Forbes era in the Dash. The games lost in December cost the new coach an opportunity to evaluate his team in his system and Wake goes into the heart of conference play with very little experience playing together thanks to just one game against an ACC-caliber team. Forbes replaced Danny Manning in the offseason after a successful 130-43 run at East Tennessee State that included two conference titles and NCAA Tournament bids, though the Bucs missed their chance to play Cinderella in Forbes’ final year with the Big Dance called off.
The Numbers
This relatively untested Wake team ranks 130th in KenPom after being picked to finish last in the ACC in the preseason poll. For what it’s worth, KenPom projects the Demon Deacons to finish the season 7-14 and 4-14 in ACC play. The Deacs are sub-100 in both offense and defense, but have excelled in a number of areas.
On offense, they have been relatively efficient around the rim, where they make 60.8 percent of their two-point tries. It is worth noting that Wake played three overmatched opponents before losing to Georgia Tech and usually ACC teams can dominate around the paint against low-major competition. From deep, the Deacs are an average 32.4 percent from beyond the arc. Still, Wake has taken a good number of 3-pointers, with 42.3 percent of its shots coming from long range. Conversely, the Demon Deacons have struggled to take care of the basketball, with a turnover rate that ranks 226th nationally, with many of those giveaways coming on more costly live-ball turnovers.
On defense, they rank 123rd nationally in efficiency. And while they turn the ball over too much, they have also forced a ton of turnovers on defense. Wake’s turnover rate ranks second nationally and, despite a tough loss at GT, the Deacs forced the Jackets to turn it over 14 times. They lead the nation in steal rate, which has helped them take turnovers and create points with run-outs. Their defense has also done a nice job preventing second-chance opportunities, ranking 10th in offensive rebound rate allowed to opponents. Wake’s opponents are shooting 32.3 percent from 3 and 49.4 percent on two-point tries, both of which are solid averages for Forbes’ defense.