Virginia (20-8, 11-6 ACC) at Boston College (15-12, 6-10 ACC)
9 p.m., ESPNU
Going from the hottest team in the conference to arguably the coldest, UVa is looking to right the ship starting tonight when the Wahoos face Boston College at Conte Forum.
Virginia enters having lost three of its last four, all by double digits, with two coming at home. As the postseason draws near, UVa finds itself in a precarious spot for an NCAA Tournament bid and has work to do to earn a top-four ACC finish for the 12th time in the last 14 conference tournaments.
The opponent later tonight isn’t exactly coming in red hot, either. The Eagles have lost their last two games, at FSU and at NC State, after a quick two-game win streak at home against Louisville and Miami. BC is a near lock to play on the first day of the ACC Tournament once again, having been up and down through ACC play, though down more than up obviously. The Eagles don’t have a winning or losing streak longer than two games since the beginning of the year.
The Cavaliers will also be looking to win at Conte Forum, something they haven’t always found an easy task over the years. UVa was throttled in Chestnut Hill last year, with the Eagles avenging a lopsided loss in Charlottesville with a lopsided win at home in the stretch run. This year, BC is 4-4 in ACC home games and 2-6 on the road, but only one of the team’s wins, home or away, has come against a team outside of the bottom five (Louisville, GT, ND, Miami), a close victory over Syracuse at home.
The Numbers
Boston College ranks 88th in KenPom heading into Wednesday’s game in Chestnut Hill. The Eagles have been solid on offense, ranking 55th nationally in efficiency, but their defense has been more lackluster, ranking 144th. This one looks like a battle of strengths (BC offense vs UVa defense) on one end, and weaknesses (UVa offense vs BC defense) on the other.
The Eagles are 50th nationally in effective field-goal percentage at 53.4, and 34th nationally in 3-point shooting, making 36.9 percent from beyond the arc. They have also been solid at the free-throw line, making 74.9 percent there. BC is top-100 in turnover rate, too. The offense does struggle to create offensive rebounds, though, ranking 262nd in the category; the Eagles also don’t get to the line much, ranking 329th in free-throw-to-field-goal ratio.
Defensively, they struggle to defend the 3-point line, ranking 296th in 3-point defense, at 35.5 percent. Opponents have an effective field-goal average of 51.5 percent, which puts BC’s defense 238th nationally. The Eagles do a good job preventing second-chance opportunities, ranking 86th in offensive rebound rate allowed. BC also doesn’t send its opponent to the line much, ranking 77th in that category on a per-possession basis.
The Matchups
Quinten Post, Forward
BC’s best player is also one of the best big men in the ACC and probably the country. Post, who hails from the Netherlands, is the team’s leading scorer at 15.9 points per contest; he adds 7.7 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game, too. The aptly-named center can score around the rim but can also pop out and hit 3s; he went 3-for-5 from deep in a 23-point effort against Miami earlier this month. Post has had a few quiet nights too though, including a 6-point effort at NC State over the weekend.
Claudell Harris Jr., Guard
The Eagles’ second-leading scorer, Harris is a transfer addition from Charleston Southern. After scoring 17.4 points per game for the Buccaneers last year, he landed at BC and is averaging 13.7 points per contest. Harris is a solid outside shooter making 37.6 percent of his 3-pointers, though he has gone just 3-of-16 from deep in the last three games.
Jaeden Zackery, Guard
A veteran presence for the Eagles, Zackery is third on the team in scoring at 11.7 points per game and is the team’s top distributor, averaging 4.3 assists per contest. He had a streak of seven-straight double-figure scoring games snapped with a 9-point effort in Raleigh on Saturday. Zackery was quiet in the first meeting between the Hoos and Eagles last season but went for 12 in the rematch, helping BC pull the upset.
Devin McGlockton, Guard
Boston College’s fourth and final player averaging double-figures, McGlockton checks in at 10.6 points per contest. A sophomore from Georgia, he shot 50 percent from deep last year but has regressed in his second season with the Eagles, down to 33.3 percent for the year. McGlockton had the rare 1-point game on Saturday at NC State but had 13 in a loss at FSU last week and 19 against Louisville on February 13.
The Outlook
It’s hard to peg any one game as a must-win, but UVa is close to that territory in this one. With three losses in their last four, the Wahoos have lost ground in the ACC race and their NCAA Tournament hopes are back in jeopardy after looking relatively solid a couple of weeks ago. BC, on the other hand, isn’t playing for much more than pride with a 6-11 league record and no shot at an at-large NCAA Tournament bid; and perhaps the stakes for the two teams could impact this one. It’s a late tip as well and should be a sleepy crowd at Conte Forum, though UVa has lost its fair share of games in Chestnut Hill in front of empty seats, including last year’s game.
This is one that UVa certainly can win and probably should win, if the Cavaliers are going to get back on track. The Eagles have some talent, but it feels like a game where if UVa can hold Post in check, and force BC’s guards to do the damage, the Hoos can pull off a road win. Containing Post the best they can on one end is huge, but their play on the other end of the floor will likely be the difference, one way or the other. They have gone three straight games without reaching 50 points, and if they turn in a similar effort tonight, they’ll certainly lose and probably once again by double digits. If they can get up to, say, 60 points or more, the Cavaliers have got a shot.
We’re picking BC because the Eagles at home and UVa is back in “show me” territory with some rough play of late after a long, impressive winning streak. The Cavaliers can find their form late in the season and get back on track, and perhaps a win in Conte Forum will right the ship. We’re confident they can win this game; we’re just not confident they will and when that’s the case, and they’re on the road, we have to pick the opponent.