Notre Dame (7-13, 2-7 ACC) at UVa (15-5, 6-3)
7 p.m., ESPN2
For the second time in a week, UVa will look to avenge an earlier loss this time when the Wahoos play host to Notre Dame tonight. The Cavaliers and Irish will get together and complete the first half of their respective ACC seasons before making the turn to February and the stretch run of the season.
A win for Virginia tonight would be five in a row, matching its longest win streak of the season. A loss, however, would snap the nation’s longest home win streak at 21 games and would be the second loss to a sub-top 100 KenPom team, both coming against Notre Dame.
When these two teams got together in South Bend last month, the Hoos played their worst game of the season while Notre Dame played its best. That collision of opposites resulted in a terrible loss for UVa, especially bad considering the 22-point margin. Virginia never led in the game and trailed by as many as 28 in a decision that tanked UVa’s metrics and adjusted the long-term outlook for the team’s postseason hopes.
The good news for the Hoos is that despite struggling on the road in the weeks that followed, they have seemingly started to trend in the right direction with four straight wins, including two away from home. The same cannot be said for Notre Dame, which came into the UVa game struggling and wasn’t exactly able to use that W as a springboard to further success. The Irish are just 1-6 since that win, with the lone victory coming in overtime at Georgia Tech on January 9. Since then, Notre Dame has lost four straight, with three of those losses coming at home. If there is a silver lining, the Irish have been in some of these games with five of their six recent losses coming by single digits, with three decided by four points or less.
The Numbers
In the first meeting, things were bad from the start for UVa as the Irish jumped out to a big lead. In the win, they shot 53.6 percent from two and 47.8 percent from deep, making 11 3-pointers. Notre Dame scored 1.19 points per possession and made 13 free throws. Despite having 14 turnovers, the game was never really in doubt after the first few minutes. On the other hand, the Wahoos put together a disastrous performance, making 43.2 percent of their twos and just two 3s on 11 tries (18.2 percent). They turned it over 11 times, lost the rebounding margin by 13, and had just one block. They also missed eight free-throw attempts in the losing effort.
Heading into tonight’s contest, Notre Dame ranks 165th in KenPom and is one of just two opponents left on UVa’s schedule outside the top-100, the other being Georgia Tech, which comes to Charlottesville for the regular-season finale in March.
The Irish have been solid defensively, ranking 43rd nationally in defensive efficiency, but have been horrific on the offensive end, where they rank 315th. They shoot just 29.8 percent from deep, are 332nd nationally in turnover rate, and 315th in steal rate allowed.
The Matchups
Markus Burton, Guard
Notre Dame’s top scorer, Burton has scored 10+ points in every game since scoring six at Miami on December 2. He scored 15 points on 6-for-10 shooting in the win over UVa last month, making two 3-pointers and dishing out eight assists. Burton was a bit quieter in his last game, scoring 10 points and only taking one 3 (a miss) in a home loss to Boston College.
J.R. Konieczny, Guard
Given his performance in the first meeting with UVa, Konieczny should be at the top of UVa’s scouting report heading into this one. He was hot right out of the gate in South Bend, making four of five 3-pointers in a 17-point effort against UVa, his second-highest point total of the season. A bigger wing player at 6-foot-7, Konieczny can be a tough cover and UVa will have to have a plan to keep him from getting good looks from deep in the rematch.
Braeden Shrewsberry, Guard
Third on the team in scoring at 8.9 points per game, the son of Notre Dame’s first-year coach is part of the long-term backcourt plan for the Irish. Shrewsberry came off the bench and scored 5 points against UVa in December, but his role has continued to grow through his freshman season. He scored 25 in the overtime win over Georgia Tech and had 14 in Saturday’s loss to BC.
Carey Booth, Forward
Another freshman on this young Irish team, Booth had the best game of his career against UVa, going for 17 points and 9 rebounds in the rout. The 6-foot-10 rookie was a tough matchup for a smaller UVa lineup, and went 6-for-9 from the field in 23 minutes of action and also stepped out and made two 3-pointers. Booth hasn’t scored double-figures since and was held scoreless on Saturday, but he’ll still be one to watch for the Hoos in Wednesday’s game.
The Outlook
Clearly, given the results of the first game, UVa should have plenty of respect for the opponent tonight. But given how both teams are playing, and Virginia’s dominant home record, the Hoos should win this one. Frankly, until proven otherwise, Notre Dame’s performance in the first meeting looks like quite the outlier. Perhaps they’ll find their form again on Wednesday night, but the odds say that’s unlikely.
UVa has already avenged one road loss this season, having beaten NC State at home last week. That game was a tough one that went to overtime, but the Wahoos still played much better in that contest, particularly on the defensive end, than they did when they met the Wolfpack in Raleigh.
We expect a similar turnaround in this game, with the Cavaliers playing inspired in front of their home fans and playing a much better defensive game on their way to a fifth-straight win as the calendar gets ready to turn to February.