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Published Jan 15, 2020
Preview: Cavaliers begin road swing at No. 9 Florida State
Justin Ferber  •  CavsCorner
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@justin_ferber

The Opponent

UVa (11-4, 3-2 ACC) at No. 9 Florida State (14-2, 4-1)

7 p.m., ESPN2


Virginia’s week of southern travel this week beginning tonight when the Cavaliers take on what is probably the best team they have faced all season. Tonight’s game in Tallahassee is the first of two meetings between the Wahoos and the Seminoles this month, with the rematch at JPJ scheduled for Tuesday, January 28th.

UVa and FSU have had some close and competitive games in recent years, and the Noles were the third and final team to beat the Hoos last year, upsetting top-seeded UYVa in the ACC Tournament semifinals before the national title run.

FSU lost some key players from that team but looks to be in contention for the ACC title again. The Noles come into Wednesday night’s game with their lone league loss coming at Pittsburgh in the season opener back in early November. Since then, they have lost just once, at Indiana in the ACC/B1G Challenge.

FSU already has several good wins under its belt, including triumphs over Tennessee and Louisville, both away from home. Florida State comes into this game winner of its last seven games, most recently rallying to beat Wake Forest in Winston-Salem last week.


The Numbers

Florida State is a solid team on both ends of the floor with a good number of strengths and very few glaring weaknesses. The Noles rank 14th in KenPom, behind only Duke and Louisville among ACC teams.

On offense the Seminoles rank 28th in efficiency, averaging 76.4 points per game. Their offense thrives in and around the painted area, where they rank 30th nationally in field-goal percentage, making 54.2 percent of their attempts. They are more pedestrian from deep, making 33.9 percent of their 3-point tries, which isn’t elite but not nearly as bad as UVa has been in that regard. Florida State doesn’t turn the ball over too much but does have quite a few dead ball turnovers, rather than steals and blocks. FSU does a nice job on the offensive glass, ranking 32nd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.

Florida State is almost always a tough matchup on defense because of quality coaching, length, and overall athleticism. This year is no different, and the Seminoles rank 18th nationally in defensive efficiency. This year, they are thriving off of the turnovers they are creating. Turning over opponents on more than a quarter of possessions, FSU ranks fifth nationally in defensive turnover rate. Not surprisingly, the Noles are top 10 nationally in block rate and steal rate as well. Opponents shoot quite a few 3s against them but are making them at a pedestrian 32.6 percent clip.


The Matchups

FSU lost top performers Terrance Mann and Mfiondu Kabengele from last year’s team but return a number of familiar faces, particularly in the backcourt. The Seminoles are led by a trio of guards who all average double figures in scoring and have been consistent performers throughout the campaign.

Devin Vassell is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 12.3 points per game. He was more of a role player last year and has thrived in his expanded role this season. The 6-foot-6 sophomore is a solid shooter, making 37 percent of his 3s which is best on the team among regular shooters. He is joined in the backcourt by point guard Trent Forrest, who is just behind Vassell in scoring at 12.2 and leads the team in assists with 3.9 per game. Forrest had one of his best games of the season earlier this month at Louisville, when he scored 20 points in what was then considered an upset win. M.J. Walker rounds out the backcourt, averaging 11.6 per game. He was also red hot against the Cards, scoring 23 points including five made 3s on seven attempts.

Any of Walker, Vassell, or Forrest are capable of having a big night against the Hoos, so all of Virginia’s perimeter defenders should expect to be tested.

In the frontcourt, FSU doesn’t have as many familiar names but certainly has capable players. Freshman forward Patrick Williams, a former UVa recruiting target, has excelled in his first year with the Seminoles, averaging 8.8 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. Williams has scored double-figures six times this year, playing just about 20 minutes per game.

Veterans Malik Osbourne and Raiquan Gray are useful options in the post as well, with both averaging better than 6 points per contest.


The Outlook

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