After dismantling Wake Forest and Notre Dame over the last week, No. 3 UVa is back at it tonight when the Wahoos head down Tobacco Road to face No. 23 NC State (7 p.m., ESPN2).
Going into tonight's meeting at PNC Arena, the Cavaliers (18-1, 6-1 ACC) have won the last 11 regular-season games against NC State and have done so by an average of 11 points. But this is obviously a different Wolfpack bunch even if they're still in transition.
In his second year at the helm, Kevin Keatts is trying to keep NC State pointed in the right direction. The Pack are coming off a last-season win at home on Saturday against Clemson, when Braxton Beverly's 3-pointer at the buzzer lifted them to a 69-67 win victory over Clemson. Had he missed that shot, State would be set to host UVa having lost three of its last four with just two wins in its last six. But with that emotional W in hand and with Markell Johnson back on the floor, the Wolfpack "feel" like they're in a much better situation than perhaps they may truly be.
No. 23 NC State Wolfpack (16-4, 4-3 ACC)
Head coach: Kevin Keatts, fifth year (109-44 overall, 37-16 in two years at NCSU)
Series: NC State leads the all-time series 82-64.
Last Meeting: The Cavaliers beat the Pack 68-51 in Charlottesville last season.
Three Things We Know
1. Virginia has dominated the series with State in recent years.
In 2012 and in 2013, UVa and NC State met in the quarterfinal round of the ACC Tournament, with the Hoos getting the double-bye as the No. 4 seed both seasons. And both years, the Wolfpack upended them, prolonging UVa’s near two-decade long absence from the semifinal round. In 2013, that loss to the Wolfpack killed any hope of UVa making the NCAA’s as an at-large, and the Wahoos haven’t missed the Big Dance since. Also during that time, they haven’t lost to the Wolfpack, either. Virginia is 6-0 against State since the 2013-2014 season, with all of those meetings coming in the regular season. UVa’s average margin of victory over the Wolfpack during that part of the winning streak is 16.2 points per game, including two 20-point blowouts and one 3- point win in Raleigh. State is one of four teams that have failed to beat Virginia dating back to 2014, joining Boston College, Clemson, and Wake Forest. NC State has had much more success than those other programs during that time, making three NCAA Tournament appearances, while those other three programs have combined for just a pair of bids.
2. The Wolfpack like to push the tempo.
Keatts took over a program last year in great need of a culture overhaul, and he has given the Wolfpack just that. NC State now has a clear identity as a team that thrives on creating turnovers and pushing the pace, led by athletic guards who can make plays on the move. This season, the Pack are 23rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, and average 85.3 points per game. State plays as fast as anyone in the conference this season, ranking third in the league in tempo behind Duke and UNC, 18th fastest nationally. Part of that ability to score in transition comes from NCSU's ability to force turnovers and convert them into layups on the other end of the floor. State forces turnovers on 23 percent of its defensive possessions, 14th best nationally. That should create a strength-on-strength matchup tonight when the Pack try to turn over a Virginia team that gives it up less than any other team in the country, on a Division-I low 13.5 percent of its possessions.
3. State has a talented, guard-heavy lineup that recently returned to full strength.
NC State has a balanced attack on offense led by four players averaging double-figures scoring, all of whom are guards. The Wolfpack are led offensively by senior wing Torin Dorn, who is averaging 14.3 points and 6.9 boards per game. In his third season with the Wolfpack after transferring from Charlotte, Dorn has made 48.9 percent of his field-goal attempts and has scored in double figures five times in State’s seven ACC contests. NC State got a boost on Saturday when Johnson returned to the lineup after missing consecutive games against Wake, Notre Dame, and Louisville with a back injury. NCSU went 1-2 in his absence, and Johnson’s floor general abilities should give the Wolfpack a lift going forward. Keatts brought guard C.J. Bryce along with him from UNCW and after sitting out last year he has made an instant impact this season. He is averaging 12.5 points per game and has been deadly from deep, making 45.5 percent of his 3-point attempts. Finally, State gets offense from a pair of alliterative sophomore guards in Devon Daniels and Braxton Beverly. Daniels is averaging 10.3 points and 4.9 boards per game in his first season on the floor after transferring in from Utah, while Beverly’s 3-point shooting exploits are becoming more known around the conference. He has made 44 of his 113 three point attempts this season, including his NBA-range buzzer beater to give the Wolfpack that stunning come-from-behind win over Clemson on Saturday afternoon.
