Louisville (5-7, 0-1 ACC) at UVa (10-3, 1-1 ACC)

7 p.m., ESPN2

After an embarrassing performance over the weekend, the Cavaliers must now turn the page in the New Year and search for some answers to get back on track. The good news is that they’ll be back home on Wednesday night, where they’re unbeaten this year, taking on the struggling Louisville Cardinals.

Virginia failed to take advantage of what looked like a manageable early ACC slate, with back-to-back games against losing teams in Notre Dame and now Louisville. Instead, the Irish punished UVa from start to finish in a humbling 76-54 loss that was never really competitive. UVa has a good chance to right the ship though, against another struggling team in the Cardinals.

Louisville enters with a 5-7 record and an 0-1 mark in ACC play, having lost to Virginia Tech back in early December. The Cards have been a bit of a disaster on and off the court since Kenny Payne took over before last season, and the results have continued to disappoint their fanbase. Louisville doesn’t have a win over a power-conference opponent, though it did have some near wins against Texas and Indiana. But losses to Chattanooga, DePaul, and Arkansas State are a reminder of how far the Cards have to go.

Payne is just 9-35 since taking over the program and is certainly on a very hot seat going deeper into league play. The question now is whether he can show signs of life and get some momentum going before it’s too late to save his job. Another question is whether UVa can handle its business and take advantage of a winnable game on its home floor after being flattened by an equally bad Notre Dame team.

Purely from a metrics standpoint, Louisville is ahead of Notre Dame heading into 2024. The Cardinals rank No. 183 in KenPom, 40 spots ahead of where the Irish were heading into their game with UVa. The Cardinals are equally mediocre on both ends of the floor, ranking 194th in offensive efficiency and 186th in defensive efficiency.

With the basketball, the Cards have simply struggled to knock down shots. Their 46.3% effective field-goal percentage ranks 298th nationally, and they’re shooting just 28.9 percent from 3. Louisville has done a good job on the offensive glass, ranking 63rd in offensive rebound rate, which could be trouble for a UVa defense that allows far too many second-chance opportunities. The Cardinals also do a good job getting to the line, ranking 19th nationally in free throw to field goal ratio.

On defense, Louisville’s opponents are having a lot of success around the rim, making 53.3 percent of their two-point tries. The defense has held opponents to a pedestrian 30.6 percent from deep, however. The Cardinals do not force many live-ball turnovers, ranking 291st in steal rate.

Skyy Clark, Guard

A talented sophomore guard from LA, Clark was Louisville’s big get in the transfer portal and has been its best player in 2023-24. Originally committed to Kentucky, he landed at Illinois for his freshman year before bouncing to the Cards in the offseason. This year, Clark is averaging a team-high 15.8 points per game, more than doubling his average from last season with the Illini. Clark had 20 points in his most-recent outing, a blowout loss to rival Kentucky.

Tre White, Forward

Louisville’s second-leading scorer is also a transfer addition. White comes to the Cards after one year at USC where he averaged 9 points per contest. This season, he is averaging 12.7 points and 6.1 boards per game for Louisville, scoring in double figures in all but one game thus far. White does most of his damage around the rim and at the charity stripe, where he attempts five free throws per game.

Mike James, Guard

The sophomore guard was forced into a big role as a freshman last year and had a solid season, averaging 10.1 points per game. James continues to be a big part of the equation for the Cardinals, averaging 12.3 points and 6.2 rebounds per contest. The Orlando native is making 33.3 percent of his 3-point attempts, and has scored 10+ points in six straight games. James scored 24 points at JPJ in last season’s finale.

Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Center

Louisville’s man in the middle, Huntley-Hatfield is averaging just south of a double-double at 9.8 points and 9.3 rebounds per contest. The 6-foot-10 junior who began his career at Tennessee is in his second season with the Cardinals and was held scoreless in two games against the Hoos last year. He is playing quite well heading into Wednesday’s game, though, posting three consecutive double-doubles, including a pair of 20-point performances.

There’s no need to over-complicate things: UVa needs to win this game. After what happened Saturday in South Bend, it will take more than a win against Louisville to repair the damage and get fans and pundits to a place where they expect UVa to have a good season. But the road back starts with a win tomorrow night.

Louisville is struggling, has had a tumultuous season, has a terrible track record against UVa regardless of coach, and the game is in Charlottesville. If UVa can simply play the defense it’s capable of and have even a modest offensive performance, the Wahoos should win this game. But make no mistake, if they play like they did on Saturday, anyone in the ACC—including Louisville—can beat them regardless of venue.

We think UVa shakes off the bad loss and handles the Cardinals, though our confidence in it being a lopsided victory has gone down considerably. We’re taking the Hoos to win this one, but even if they do, we’ll learn far more about the team in their next two contests, at NC State and at Wake Forest.