No. 7 Virginia (15-4, 11-2) at Duke (9-8, 7-6)

8 p.m., ESPN

After suffering its second conference loss of the season, UVa is back in action tomorrow night when the Cavaliers travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on Duke in a primetime matchup. This game doesn’t carry the same weight that most thought that it would in the preseason, as the Blue Devils have fallen below their preseason expectations to this point.

After a short four-game non-conference schedule that featured wins over Coppin State and Bellarmine with losses to Illinois and Michigan State, Duke started 3-0 in ACC play and appeared to be on the right track. Three straight losses sent the Blue Devils to .500 in ACC play, before a brief two-game winning streak preceded a three-game losing streak that followed. And coming into this game, Duke is again on a two-game winning streak, having blown out in-state rivals NC State and Wake Forest in the last week.

Needless to say, Duke is a streaky team and we’ll soon find out whether the Blue Devils are in the midst of a bounce back or if their recent wins were more a byproduct of the competition they faced.

Virginia has dominated the ACC in recent years, with the notable exception of the Devils. UVa has a winning record against everyone in the conference since the 2014 season except for Duke, which has beaten the Wahoos in six of the last nine meetings. UVa did win the last matchup in 2020, hanging on for a 52-50 win at home in late February. The Cavaliers also no longer have their long losing streak at Cameron, which ended in 2018, though Duke did win the last meeting in Durham the following season.

While it’s easy to say that the Blue Devils have not been the team they were expected to be, they are a respectable team from a metrics standpoint. They rank 30th in KenPom, which is third-best in the conference behind league leaders UVa and FSU. The Blue Devils are strong on offense, where they rank 14th nationally in efficiency and second in the ACC in conference games only (FSU is first). They shoot the ball well from the floor, making 53.4 percent of their twos and 35.7 percent of their 3-point tries. Duke isn’t terribly reliant on outside shots and has a relatively balanced scoring profile. One area where Duke struggles is getting to the free throw line. The Devils ranks 338th nationally in free throw/field goal attempt ratio and just 13.3 percent of their points come at the charity stripe.

On defense, Duke isn’t quite as imposing. The Blue Devils rank 82nd nationally in defensive efficiency heading into Saturday’s game. They allow opponents to shoot 37.6 percent from beyond the arc and 38.9 percent to ACC opponents, which is the second-worst percentage allowed in the conference (UNC is 0.1 percent worse).

Despite allowing 3s to go in at a high rate, most of Duke’s points allowed come on two-point field goals, which speaks to how games are normally played. The Blue Devils like to get up and down the court and play in transition, so their opponents often do the same. Their defense does a great job creating steals and blocks and turning them into transition chances, though UVa doesn’t turn the ball over much and rarely allows many points in transition.

Duke suffered a big personnel loss earlier this week when freshman wing Jalen Johnson opted out. A projected lottery pick, Johnson was one of Duke’s top scoring threats before seeing less playing time in recent weeks. His 11.2 points and 6.1 rebounds per game are a big loss for Duke, but the Deviles have played well without him in their last two games, so it will be interesting to see if losing Johnson is a big blow to team that has struggled with him, or if it is a galvanizing force for the players that remain.

With Johnson gone, Duke will lean on forwards Matthew Hurt and Wendell Moore to pick up the slack. Hurt has developed from a role player into one of the conference’s top offensive players this season: His 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game pace the team in both categories and Hurt is also the team’s top outside shooting threat. Ge will be a tough matchup for the Cavaliers, who often struggle to slow down stretch forwards. Moore, meanwhile, is a more traditional wing forward and is a capable scorer averaging 9.6 points per contest. Duke has also used freshman center Mark Williams more in recent games, and his 7-foot presence in the post allows Hurt to play away from the basket more.

In the backcourt, Duke is young but talented. Freshman guard D.J. Steward is second on the team in scoring with 13.2 points per game, playing more than 30 minutes per contest. He heads into the weekend coming off of a strong performance in Wednesday’s win over Wake, when he scored 16 points and grabbed seven rebounds while dishing out three assists. Freshman point guard Jeremy Roach isn’t much of a shooter but is a capable scorer averaging 8.8 points per game, and he should log a lot of minutes. The veteran presence in the backcourt is senior Jordan Goldwire, who is the team’s top distributor, averaging 3.8 assists per game.