UVa (1-0, 0-0 ACC) at Wake Forest (1-0, 0-0 ACC)
7 p.m., ESPN2
Head Coach: Dave Clawson (RECORD)
Last Meeting: WF beat UVa 37-14 in Charlottesville in 2021
Last Saturday night, the Virginia Cavaliers started the 2024 season with a comfortable 34-13 win over the Richmond Spiders. The offense started fast and continued its dominance after a lengthy weather delay. Defensively, UVa controlled the line of scrimmage and rattled the Spiders all night with a healthy dosage of pressure.
This Saturday night, the Wahoos will take their show on the road to Winston-Salem, North Carolina to renew an old ACC rivalry between the Cavs and Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are a team, led by head coach Dave Clawson, that know exactly who they are, and are always a mature, physical football team.
Last week, Wake Forest opened the 2024 season with a 45-13 win over North Carolina A&T. In that win, Wake used a balanced offensive attack and a big third quarter to pull away from a pesky A&T ball club. The Deacs totaled 513 yards of offense, including 320 through the air from a pair of quarterbacks, Hank Bachmeier and Michael Kern. Kern (6-foot-2, 204 pounds) started the game, but Bachmeier (6-foot-2, 215 pounds) got the bulk of the snaps last week and did not disappoint. The Boise State transfer passed for 263 yards and three touchdowns, while Kern was an efficient 5 for 8 for 57 yards.
The Opponent
The Deacs' offense is one of the most unique units in the country, featuring the “slow-mesh” run game, that mirrors some option concepts. Their offense forces defenses to play a sound, discipline game to stymie the Wake offensive attack. Against NC A&T, Wake’s run game was powered by former King William High School standout Demond Claiborne. The 5-foot-10, 200-pound junior tailback rushed for 135 yards on 17 carries for the Deacs, including one touchdown. Tate Carney (5-10, 212) is another back that Wake Forest likes to feature in this offense, and he rushed nine times for 40 yards and a score in the opener.
Although Wake’s offense is predicated on the mesh run game, offensive coordinator Warren Ruggiero will spread defenses out and use an efficient downfield passing game. Chantilly native Taylor Morin (5-11, 185) leads a group of experienced pass catchers. Last Saturday, seven receivers caught at least two balls, and all three passing touchdowns were caught by a different receiver.
There’s a bulk of talent that returns on the offensive line for Wake Forest, spearheaded by tackle DeVonte Gordon (6-foot-5, 315 pounds) and guard Matt Gulbin (6-foot-4, 315 pounds). The Demon Deacon offensive line helped the ground game to churn out 196 rushing yards on 32 carries (six yards per attempt).
Under now second-year defensive coordinator Brad Lambert, Wake Forest made major strides in 2023. Pro Football Focus ranked the unit 45th nationally. Lambert runs a 4-2-5 defense that is both opportunistic and disciplined. Last season, the Deacs forced 16 turnovers and amounted over 30 sacks and 85 tackles for loss.
Against North Carolina A&T, Wake Forest allowed 337 yards of offense, but only surrendered 4.9 yards per play. This was aided by three sacks and six TFLs by the Lambert-led defense.
Up front, Wake Forest features one of the conference’s top pass rushers in Jasheen Davis. The 6-foot-3, 270-pounder has collected 13.5 sacks in his career. Alongside Davis, Wake returns three other experienced players on the defensive line. Kevin Pointer (6-foot-1, 285 pounds), Bryce Ganious (6-foot-1, 300 pounds), and Kendron Waymon (6-foot-4, 260 pounds), all started multiple games in 2023.
In the middle of the defense, Wake returns starting linebacker Dylan Hazen (6-foot-1, 230 pounds) who finished 2023 ranked 10th in the ACC in total tackles. He is joined by Southern Illinois transfer Branson Combs (6-foot-3, 228 pounds), who finished last season with 85 total stops, two sacks and two interceptions for the Salukis.
The strength of any successful 4-2-5 defense lies in the secondary. This proves true in Winston-Salem as Wake features an experienced DB room with a lot of starts to show for it. 5-foot-11, 197-pound Nick Anderson leads the group. Last week he totaled 14 tackles against NC A&T, while cornerback Evan Slocum (5-foot-11, 200 pounds) amassed seven total tackles.
Wake Forest is also powered by a great special teams unit, led by Ray Guy Award watch list member, Ivan Mora. Mora averaged 48.9 yards per punt last season and has already upped his level this year, averaging nearly 58 yards per kick against NC A&T, including a 66-yarder last week. Additionally, Morin returned a punt for a 73-yard touchdown last week to spark the third quarter takeover for the Demon Deacons.
Three Keys to Victory for UVa
1. Get the offense going again.
Offensively, Anthony Colandrea needs to be the difference maker. He is an electric playmaker with the ball in his hands and has a live arm. He has athletes littered across the field and an experienced offensive line. This is a game where I think both offenses will move the ball. Wake Forest seemed leaky up front last week against an FCS opponent, so UVa should expect to run the ball and establish their presence up front, while also using their athleticism at the receiver position to make big plays.
2. Scheme up Wake's slow mesh offense.
Defensive coordinator John Rudzinski looks to be a really important factor this wee against a unique Wake offense. Having coached at a service academy and knowing the intricacies of an option-based offense, we think he will have a plan in place to slow the Wake Forest run game. In order to combat what they want to do, teams need to disrupt the dive or inside zone read at the line of scrimmage and throw bodies forward. This may open some vertical passing lanes for Bachmeier and company, but we feel that UVa will do just enough to keep Wake Forest off balance.
3. Avoid the big special teams mistake.
Last but certainly not least in a game like this, special teams will be the difference. Like Wake, UVa features one of the nation’s best punters. This will be a game where field position is crucial and a blocked punt, or a big return could sway the result. UVa needs to be clean on special teams and potentially deliver a game-changing play at some point on Saturday night.
Outlook
This is a football game that will be won by either team in the margins. They are largely equally talented and recruit the same base of players. To secure a win, UVa needs to play a mature game and not make the typical UVa road game mistakes.
We expect UVa to outlast Wake in a great ACC football game on Saturday night. Colandrea and crew have a little too much offense for Wake Forest as Virginia moves to 2-0 for the first time since the 2021 season. These are two evenly matched programs, however the diversity of UVa’s offense keeps them ahead of Wake Forest the entire game and the defense seals the win with a late turnover.