Boston College (10-11, 4-6 ACC) at No. 7 UVa (15-3, 7-2)
Noon, RSN
After a week off to rest and reset for the stretch run, the Cavaliers return to action on Saturday afternoon when Boston College comes to Charlottesville for a matinee at JPJ. Up three spots this week in the AP Top 25, UVa stands second in the ACC standings behind 9-1 Clemson and just ahead of a slew of teams with six or seven wins.
Tomorrow’s game will be the first of two this season between the Hoos and the Eagles, with UVa set to make the return trip to Chestnut Hill on Wednesday, Feb. 22. Heading into the weekend, BC is 10-11 overall and 4-6 in ACC play in the second season under head coach Earl Grant. Following a four game losing streak that featured some lopsided losses, Boston College comes to Charlottesville winners of two straight, having beaten struggling Notre Dame last weekend before a come-from-behind win over 2-18 Louisville at home this week.
Picked 13th in the league’s preseason poll, right now the Eagles are closer to the group of teams at the bottom of the conference despite having a much better record than those teams. When looking game-by-game, KenPom has them losing out until their regular-season finale against Georgia Tech at home, starting with some real long-shot odds against the Cavaliers this weekend.
The Numbers
Boston College ranks 184th nationally, one of five teams in the ACC outside of the top 100 (FSU, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Louisville).
The biggest drag on BC’s efficiency is its offense, where the Eagles rank 246th nationally, second-worst in the league. Simply put, BC hasn’t shot the ball particularly well from anywhere, making just 29.7 percent of its 3-point tries, and 49.1 percent of its twos. The Eagles make just 70.7 percent of their free-throw attempts, too. They do a decent job avoiding turnovers, but overall their offensive profile is poor for an ACC team.
On defense, they are more efficient. BC ranks 122nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and is solid in several areas. The block rate is top-100, and the Eagles are 106th nationally in turnovers forced per possession, with a decent number of steals creating run-outs. BC’s opponents have had a lot of success making 3s, though, with opponents hitting 38.2 percent of their tries when they play the Eagles.
The Matchups
Despite their rough offensive numbers as a team, the Eagles do have some talent on the roster, without a doubt. In the backcourt, they are led by veteran guard Makai Ashton-Langford, who is averaging 12.9 points per contest. Ashton-Langford isn’t much of a shooter, making just 26.9 percent of his 3s, but he is relatively efficient on two-point shots. In the last two games, Ashton-Langford has scored 20 and 21 points against Notre Dame and Louisville, respectively, making 14-of-28 field-goal attempts across the two games.
Sophomore Jaeden Zackery is another guard to watch, averaging 10.6 points per contest. After making nearly half of his 3s last year, Zackery has come back to Earth a bit, making just 30.2 percent of his tries in 21 games this season. He is coming off of a 15-point, 7-rebound effort against Louisville on Wednesday night.
Junior wing Demarr Langford is another capable scorer, averaging 7.6 points per game after averaging 11.3 last season. Langford has been a bit quiet in recent games, but did have a 20-point effort in a loss at Miami earlier this month.
Despite having plenty of scoring options in the backcourt, BC’s top scorer is a big man. Senior center Quinten Post has picked up his play in his senior season, going from 9.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game last season to 15.3 points and 6.4 boards per game this year. Post, a 7-foot native of the Netherlands who began his career at Mississippi State, has only played in eight games this season but has made a significant impact in all of them, with just one game under 10 points scoring, when he played just 16 minutes at Syracuse. In the last two games, he scored 29 against Notre Dame and 22 against Louisville, helping the Eagles pull off a pair of wins.
The Outlook
Given that the game is at home, this is one of the most-likely wins remaining on UVa’s schedule. Following a week off, the Hoos will now have two games per week the rest of the way, starting with Saturday’s game against the Eagles. A win in this spot before heading to Syracuse on Monday night would give the Cavaliers a chance to continue to build the momentum they’ve gathered over the past five games, and help UVa stay within striking distance of first-place Clemson.
BC doesn’t have the profile of a team that would give the pack-line a ton of trouble, given its outside shooting record and lack of overall efficiency on the offensive end.
Still, the matchup with Post will be interesting to watch. Will the Cavaliers continue to throw the smaller lineup at the Eagles and make Post guard away from the basket, or will this be an opportunity for Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro to earn more minutes against a traditional big?
We’re going with the Hoos in a comfortable win to give them six straight wins as they head into the back half of their ACC schedule.