Preview: Cavaliers set to face off against Badgers tomorrow night

Fort Myers Tip-Off

Virginia (4-0) vs Wisconsin (2-2)

6 p.m., FS1

UVa looks to continue its hot start to the 2023-24 season when the Wahoos take on Wisconsin in the Fort Myers Tip-Off event on Monday night (6pm, FS1). Tomorrow’s game in the Sunshine State is the first of two for the Cavaliers in this event, as they’ll play again on Wednesday against either West Virginia or SMU, depending on the results of tomorrow’s games.

While the Hoos are off to a 4-0 start, the Badgers will be looking to get some momentum going after a tough start to their campaign. They have home wins over Arkansas State and Robert Morris thus far with losses to Tennessee and Providence. Wisconsin is one of very few power conference programs to have already played two top-50 KenPom teams, and UVa will make three on Monday. But the loss by 10 to Tennessee came at home and the Badgers were uncompetitive against the Friars, trailing by as many as 25 in what ended up a 13-point loss with a late rally to close the gap.

Of course, Virginia and Wisconsin have plenty of ties and recent history heading into tomorrow’s game. Obviously Tony Bennett has deep roots in his home state and the Hoos have three Wisconsin natives on the roster this year (Andrew Rodhe from Brookfield, Leon Bond from Wauwatosa and Reece Beekman from Milwaukee). The Cavaliers and Badgers have played four times since the 2012-13 season: Once in Madison, twice at JPJ and most recently in the 2018 Battle for Atlantis. UVa won at the Kohls Center in 2013, lost to the Badgers at home the following year, beat Wisconsin 49-37 at home in 2018 and beat the Badgers again the following year in the Battle for Atlantis title game.

Despite two early-season losses, Wisconsin still ranks 42nd in KenPom, a few spots behind a Florida team that took UVa to the wire.

The Badgers are solid on both ends of the floor, ranking 41st nationally in offensive efficiency and 50th in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin has a reputation for playing slow, methodical games like UVa but that hasn’t been the case this year. The Badgers are 97th nationally in tempo and have played some high-scoring games. They scored 105 in their season opener against Arkansas State and have allowed 68 points or more in each game this season.

On offense, Wisconsin has struggled to knock down 3s but has been good around the rim, shooting 56 percent on two-point field goal tries. Only 30 percent of its shots are 3-pointers, and the Badgers have made just 29 percent of those attempts. They do a good job taking care of the basketball, ranking near the top nationally in turnovers allowed and even better in live-ball turnovers allowed.

Defensively, Wisconsin has created a good number of takeaways, ranking 34th nationally in turnover rate. The Badgers have also done a good job cleaning up the glass, ranking 93rd nationally in offensive rebounds allowed. That should come as no surprise, given that they rank 29th nationally in average height. While their defense has those strengths, they’ve also seen opponents make 35 percent of their 3s and 57 percent of their twos. Opponents are also getting to the line quite a bit against the Badgers, who rank 308th in free throw to field goal attempt ratio.

A.J. Storr, Guard

A key transfer addition for the Badgers, Storr came to Madison after one successful year at St. John’s. An Illinois native, he is back home in the Midwest and has had a big impact for Wisconsin, leading the team with 15.5 points per game. Storr went for 22 points in the loss to Providence and had 17 against the Vols. He is a volume shooter who has already taken 60 field-goal attempts in four games.

Chucky Hepburn, Guard

While Storr is a guard who is new to the team, Hepburn is a Badger veteran now in his third season with the program. He was on the Big Ten All-Freshman team in 2021-22 and was honorable mention all-conference last year. Hepburn is averaging 12.8 points and 3 assists per game this season, and had a 20-point, 6-assist effort in the season opener against Arkansas State.

Steven Crowl, Forward

The matchup between UVa freshman Blake Buchanan and the Wisconsin big man will be one to watch on Monday night. Crowl is a legit 7-footer who is having a solid start to his season, averaging 10.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Last year, he played just over 30 minutes per game, scoring 12.1 points and hauling in 6.9 rebounds per game. Crowl is able to step out and hit the occasional 3, too, though that’s not a huge part of his game.

Tyler Wahl, Forward

A fifth-year senior, Wahl has started 85 games and played in 126 during his Badger career. He is another capable scorer, averaging 10 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, after averaging double figures in each of the previous two seasons as well. Wahl heads to the Fort Myers coming off of his best game of the season thus far, scoring 18 points in Friday’s win over Robert Morris.

Virginia’s second game against a power conference opponent should be another litmus test for where the Hoos are early in the season. It will also potentially be a quality win, should UVa get it, against a top-50 opponent on a neutral court.

The big question heading into tomorrow’s matchup is the health of Isaac McKneely. The sophomore sharpshooter went down with an ankle injury in the first half of Tuesday’s win over North Carolina A&T and missed Thursday’s win over Texas Southern. Bennett said that McKneely’s x-rays were negative, but his status is in doubt heading into this tournament.

If we knew for sure that UVa was at full strength, we’d be more confident taking the Hoos to win this one and maybe by more than just a few points. But against Texas Southern, the offense wasn’t quite as smooth without McKneely’s perimeter shooting, and it will be interesting to see how UVa does without him against a much better opponent should he not be able to go.

We’re still going to pick UVa to take this one, though, given both how solid the Cavaliers have been across the board in their first four games and Wisconsin’s struggles against the two quality opponents they’ve played.