After losing three of its four road games today, UVa closes out its slate of games away from Charlottesville this season when the Wahoos travel to Chapel Hill tomorrow night to face North Carolina (7:30 p.m., ACC Network).
The 124th all-time meeting between these two teams (and the first time the rivalry has ever been played at night in Kenan Stadium) will be a big one, with Coastal Division implications all over this year’s matchup between the Cavaliers and Tar Heels.
And the two teams come into this one in different spots. While UVa has lost three of its last four, Carolina broke a three-game losing skid with two wins in its last three games.
North Carolina Tar Heels (4-4, 3-2 ACC)
Head coach: Mack Brown, 31st season (248-126 overall, 73-50-1 in 11 years at UNC)
Series: Carolina leads the all-time series 63-56-4.
Last Meeting: The Cavaliers beat the Heels 31-21 last year in Charlottesville.
Three Points on North Carolina's Offense
-- Carolina’s offense was explosive for several years under Larry Fedora but had a significant downturn in 2017 and 2018. As a result, UNC moved on from Fedora and in Mack Brown’s first season back in Chapel Hill the offense has bounced back. Brown hired Ole Miss offensive coordinator Phil Longo in the offseason, and the results have exceeded first-year expectations thus far. Through eight contests, the Tar Heels are averaging 27.5 points per game and have scored 30 points on three occasions. Carolina has navigated a pretty tough schedule as well without a love of bad teams or defenses on the slate. UNC has converted 36 percent of its 3rd-down attempts and is 29 for 32 in the red zone. The Heels are middle-of-the-pack in a lot of offensive categories, like 77th nationally in yards per play, and right now might not be the most consistently good offense UVa has seen from drive to drive. But they make up for that with explosive plays: Carolina is 13th nationally in 20+ yard plays with 48, or six per contest.
-- The biggest difference maker for the Tar Heels this season has been freshman quarterback Sam Howell, who they snagged late in the recruiting process from FSU, where he was previously committed. Howell has started from Day 1 and has impressed after two seasons with lackluster quarterback play in Chapel Hill. He has completed 59 percent of his throws, with 2,119 passing yards (265 per game) and an impressive 22 touchdowns to go along with only five interceptions. Howell is an excellent deep ball thrower, completing eight of his touchdowns on 20+ yard passes in the air. The freshman had his best game against Virginia Tech, throwing for 348 yards and five touchdowns with no picks in a wild six-OT loss. He has taken advantage of Carolina’s skill talent at wide receiver, which continues to make explosive plays. Junior receiver Dazz Newsome is coming off of back-to-back 100-yard receiving days against Virginia Tech and Duke. Sophomore wideout Diyami Brown is also dangerous, averaging 18.4 yards per catch. And UVa will have to account for big-bodied target Beau Corrales, who has hauled in five touchdowns on 25 receptions this year.
-- Carolina has a solid ground game to go along with Howell’s passing. As a team, the Heels are averaging just over four yards per carry. The offense features a two-headed monster in the backfield, with sophomore Javonte Williams and junior Michael Carter splitting carries evenly. Williams has rushed 116 times for 640 yards and three touchdowns while Carter has had 109 carries and gaining 542 yards though he has yet to score a rushing TD this year. UNC will also find ways to get its receivers involved in the short game through quick passes and plays around the line of scrimmage that they can take the distance. After Louisville had a lot of success running the ball against Virginia last weekend, how the Cavaliers respond against UNC’s ground game will be key in Saturday night’s contest.
Three Points on the Tar Heel D
-- Like the offense, North Carolina’s defense has made strides under a new coaching staff this year. Jay Bateman took over the defense after a very successful stint at Army, where he helped the Black Knights to an 11-2 season and a blowout bowl win. This year, his Tar Heels have improved greatly from the 2018 defense that allowed 34.5 points per game. This season, the defense has allowed just 25.8 points per contest and has only given up 30 points on two occasions (Appalachian State and Virginia Tech). Carolina’s defense held its own against an uber-talented Clemson team earlier this year, holding the Tigers to just 21 points in a near-upset at home. The Heels have done a decent job forcing turnovers, with eight interceptions and four fumble recoveries on the year. Teams have had some success running the ball against them with 4.28 yards per carry and 13 rushing touchdowns allowed.
-- One big boost to Carolina’s defense has been the play of linebacker Chazz Surratt, who is a former quarterback that threw passes against the Hoos the last time these two teams squared off in Chapel Hill. The move to defense has been a game changer, both for UNC and Surratt, who is thriving in his new role. On the season, he has recorded a team-high 75 tackles, with 36 solo stops. He also leads the team in tackles for loss with 8.5, and is second to fellow linebacker Tomon Fox in sacks with five, just a half sack behind his teammate. Surratt also recorded a huge interception last weekend in a rivalry win over Duke. The Blue Devils were on the goal line looking for the go-ahead score, and Surratt correctly recognized a trick play look from Duke, and intercepted the jump pass to seal the Victory Bell win for North Carolina.
-- Virginia has struggled with turning the ball over in its losses, as the Wahoos have 10 interceptions on the year between their three quarterbacks that have taken a snap. Carolina has eight picks this season and a secondary that will be looking to force the Cavaliers into even more mistakes. A big factor this week for the Tar Heels will be whether or not defensive back Myles Wolfolk can play. Brown said this week that it was a possibility and Wolfolk is listed as “OR” on the depth chart at safety, along with D.J. Ford. Despite playing in just half of his team’s games, Wolfolk has recorded a team-high three interceptions. He had two picks in the season opener against South Carolina but hasn’t been available for the Heels since their loss to Appalachian State on September 21st, the game when he recorded his other INT. If he can go, it’s a big boost to the Tar Heel secondary, one that will be looking to force Bryce Perkins into mistakes that have seemed to happening too regularly this season.