The Opponent
No. 9 Virginia (15-3, 11-1) at No. 17 Florida State (11-3, 7-2)
7 p.m., ESPN
A Top 20 matchup that has the potential to look even better once the Associated Press releases its new Top 25 at noon, UVa is readying for what is likely its most-important game of the season and certainly the most important to date. After a comfortable win over North Carolina on Saturday night, the Cavaliers face a quick turnaround and a trip to Tallahassee for a Presidents’ Day tilt that features the top two teams in the ACC standings.
The Seminoles have played three fewer ACC games than UVa has to this point, in large part due to their recent COVID-19 pause. They went two weeks without a game, with contests at Boston College and Virginia Tech scratched, before returning to action on Saturday. Florida State survived a scare in that return game, needing a last-second shot to force overtime against 6-9 Wake Forest before pushing past the Deacs in overtime.
In the win, Florida State ran its home winning streak in ACC play to 23 games, which is now the second-longest streak in league history. A win over UVa would move the Notes within two games of the record (Duke won 26 straight at Cameron Indoor Stadium from 1997-2000), which speaks to FSU’s effectiveness on its home floor.
UVa and FSU split their two-game series last year, with the eventual league champions knocking off UVa at home before the Cavaliers exacted revenge just 13 days later in Charlottesville.
The Numbers
Tonight’s game features the top two teams in the ACC and also the conference’s top two teams in the KenPom rankings. FSU ranks 20th nationally, 11 spots behind the Wahoos heading into the matchup. The Seminoles are a top-50 team on both ends of the floor but are stronger on the offensive end, where they rank 15th in efficiency. FSU has done a great job shooting the basketball, with the nation’s 17th-best 3-point shooting average at 38.7 percent. The Noles shoot 52.1 percent on two pointers and a solid 73.4 percent from the line. They also do a nice job on the offensive glass, where they rank 10th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. They are good at getting to the line as well, where they score just over 19 percent of their points.
If there is a weakness when FSU has the basketball, it’s giving the ball back to the opponents: FSU is 208th nationally in turnover rate and second-worst in the ACC (NC State).
On defense, the Seminoles rank 48th nationally in efficiency. As always, they are a physical team with a lot of length that can make scoring difficult for opponents. They do a great job defending the rim, with opponents making just 44.7 percent of their two-point tries. FSU ranks ninth nationally in block rate as well. Sometimes the Noles are a bit too physical for their own good, with opponents getting to the line relatively often. As a result of their imposing frontcourt, opponents often shoot a lot of 3s. More than 41 percent of opponent shots are 3-pointers, and the Seminoles see their foes make 34.4 percent of them.
The Matchups
Despite losing guards Devin Vassell and Trent Forrest in the offseason, Florida State’s backcourt features plenty of scoring punch. Veteran guard M.J. Walker teams up with newcomer Scottie Barnes to form a formidable duo for the Noles, with both players averaging double-figures scoring per game. Walker leads the team in points per game with 13.7 and is the team’s best pure scorer. He is an excellent 3-point shooter, making 44.4 percent of his attempts and he also shoots 85.7 percent from the free-throw line. He works in tandem with Barnes, one of the league’s top rookies. Barnes is averaging 10.5 points per contest and is also the team’s top distributor at 4.2 assists per. He hit a huge shot to tie Saturday’s game against Wake Forest with less than a second to play, helping the Seminoles avoid a major upset loss at home. Junior wing Anthony Polite is also a dangerous scorer, having returned to the lineup on Saturday after a near-month absence. Polite shoots nearly four 3s per game and makes half of those attempts.
FSU’s frontcourt is led by one of the conference’s most unique players. Forward RaQuan Gray has developed from a role player to a team leader throughout his FSU career, a bit of a throwback to a different era of basketball. At 6-foot-8, 260 pounds, Gray is a physical presence that can be a handful for more slender wings that are often matched up against him. He is second on the team in scoring with 11.1 points per game to go along with 6.6 rebounds per contest. When Gray is on, he can be a double-double machine that provides a lot of energy for the Seminoles as well as production. On Saturday, he had a dominant performance against Wake Forest with 24 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and three blocks in the overtime victory.
As they always seem to, FSU has an imposing center. Sophomore Balsa Koprivica, a native of Serbia, is both big, at 7-foot-1, 240 pounds, and skilled. Koprivica is just scratching the surface of his ability in his second year at FSU, averaging 9.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. As with many younger bigs, his scoring punch comes and goes. Koprivica rolled his ankle in pregame warmups on Saturday, forcing him to miss the game against Wake Forest, so his status for tonight’s game remains unknown at this point. Assuming he does play, Koprivica’s matchup with Jay Huff should be fun to watch.