Virginia Tech Hokies (8-6 | 0-3) at Virginia Cavaliers (9-6 | 3-2)
After a disappointing loss at North Carolina over the weekend, UVa turns their attention to another rival, with the Virginia Tech Hokies coming to Charlottesville on Wednesday night (9pm, ESPN2). The Cavaliers are also looking to stay above .500 in ACC play after dropping to 3-2, and stay close to the group currently at the top of the league standings.
UVa’s in-state rival comes to JPJ even more desperate for a win. The Hokies have had a disappointing first half of the season after relatively high expectations coming into the campaign. Tech is 8-6 overall heading into tonight’s game, and 0-3 in conference play, having lost three of their last four games, and four of their last six. The Hokies dropped back-to-back ACC games to Duke and NC State, with a long COVID pause in the middle.
Now, because of rescheduled games, Tech desperately needs a win over their in-state rival to get in the win column in league play before a condensed schedule with seven ACC games between now and the end of January.
The Numbers
Despite an 8-6 record, Virginia Tech comes to Charlottesville ranked 31st nationally in KenPom despite a 8-6 record, third among ACC programs behind Duke and North Carolina. Like Virginia, the Hokies play at a slow pace, ranking 334th nationally in tempo out of 358 schools, and 283rd in average length of possession.
On offense, the Hokies have been one of the nation’s most efficient teams, ranking 38th in pace-adjusted efficiency. Tech is another team that can knock down outside shots in bunches, making 38.8 percent of their three-point tries, which ranks them 14th-best nationally. Virginia Tech’s offense is heavily reliant on made outside shots. 37 percent of Tech’s scoring comes from made threes, which is near the top nationally in three pointers to points ratio. The Hokies also do a nice job taking care of the basketball, ranking 53rd nationally in turnover rate. Because they are so perimeter oriented, Tech doesn’t get to the line much, and only 14 percent of their scoring comes from the stripe.
Tech is solid on the defensive end of the floor as well, ranking 30th in efficiency. Opponents are making just 26.9 percent of their three-point efforts, which ranks 10th best nationally for a defense. The Hokies do a nice job creating turnovers, though many of them are non-live ball turnovers, which aren’t as valuable as steals. VT does a decent job on the defensive glass, but does allow quite a bit of scoring around the rim. That makes sense, as teams are doing such a bad job shooting outside shots against Tech.
The Matchups
Virginia Tech’s is reliant on the 3, but can generate quite a bit of scoring from the forward positions. Senior forward Keve Aluma is Tech’s top scorer, averaging 15.2 points per contest. Aluma had a 25-point, 10 rebound effort against Duke in December, and seems bound for an All-ACC team at season’s end. Aluma dominated Virginia in Blacksburg last season, scoring 29 points and grabbing 10 boards in a big finish for the Hokies leading to a 65-51 win.
Aluma is joined in the frontcourt by springy big man Justyn Mutts. Fourth on the team in points per game, Mutts is averaging 9.9 points, 7.5 boards and 2.8 rebounds per contest, and is a talented player on both ends of the floor. Mutts isn’t a great outside shooter, but his length can cause matchup problems for opponents, while also being an asset to the team on the defensive end.
In the backcourt, the Hokies have three players that do most of the heavy lifting. Junior wing Hunter Catoor is the leading scorer in the backcourt, and Tech’s most dangerous outside shooter. Catoor is averaging 10.1 points per contest, while knocking down 44.6 percent of his threes, and a staggering 54.2 percent of his triple tries on the road.
Fellow Wofford transfer Storm Murphy joined the Tech program in the offseason, and hasn’t quite been as efficient a scorer as he was with the Terriers. Murphy is averaging 8.6 points per contest this year and is another good shooter at 39.3 percent from three, after averaging 17.8 points at Wofford last season.
Finally, off-ball guard Nahiem Alleyne is another player capable of putting up numbers. Alleyne is more of a slasher than a shooter, scoring 10 points per contest.
The Outlook
This feels like a pure toss-up game as tip-off approaches. Virginia Tech had a stronger start to the season, but has tailed off a bit lately. This UVa team doesn’t seem like a vintage Tony Bennett team, and the loss to UNC notwithstanding, the Hoos have played a bit better than the Hokies lately. Tech has great efficiency numbers, but that efficiency simply hasn’t shown up of late, or hasn’t led to wins, anyway.
This is a game that could really go either way, and likely comes down to how many 3s Tech can make. If UVa can keep the Hokies from a big number of triples, they will have a great chance to handle this game at home and move to 4-2 in ACC play. If Tech comes in hot and UVa can’t match, it will be a long night for the Wahoos against a desperate Hokies team. Based on Tech’s recent form, we’ll go with the Wahoos at home, in a close affair.